BoE's Lombardelli says policy is increasingly likely to need to tighten if elevated energy prices persist
Comments framed around second-round effects from energy prices sit in a well-worn central bank script: the distinction between a relative price shock, which monetary policy conventionally looks through, and a shock that propagates into wages and underlying pricing, which it does not.
BoE's Lombardelli says policy is increasingly likely to need to tighten if elevated energy prices persist
German Ifo Expectations (Sep) 90.4 vs. Exp. 89.3 (Prev. 89.1)
German Ifo Current Conditions (Sep) 89.5 vs. Exp. 89 (Prev. 88.5)
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SECOND ROUND EFFECTS
- The absence of evidence of second-round effects tells us something, but not much. It is likely still too early to see evidence in the data, especially given that indirect effects are coming through more slowly than expected.
Lombardelli's formulation is conditional and data-contingent, the standard structure of optionality-keeping remarks rather than a pre-commitment, and the explicit concession that the absence of visible second-round effects is uninformative at this stage is the tell: it keeps the tightening case alive while conceding the evidence has not yet arrived. Speakers making this argument have historically been positioning on the hawkish side of the MPC's internal distribution, so the read hinges on whether the framing spreads to the median voters or remains a minority view. The immediate sensitivity is to wage settlements and services inflation rather than headline prints, since those are the channels through which energy pass-through would have to show itself to validate the conditional. Follow-ons are further MPC commentary in the same register, any shift in the split between looking-through and tightening language, and the pace at which indirect effects emerge in the data the Bank itself flags as lagging. As remarks rather than a decision, this is directional signalling, and gilt front-end reaction to such speeches has typically faded unless corroborated by other members.
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