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BoE's Taylor says everything changed at the beginning of March after the Iran conflict abd says BoE February forecast is effectively obsolete because it did not include the energy shock

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BoE's Taylor says everything changed at the beginning of March after the Iran conflict abd says BoE February forecast is effectively obsolete because it did not include the energy shock

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  • The economy is moving into a position of slack.
  • Probably correct to expect a need for interest rate hikes under BoE's scenario C outlook.
  • Some tightening has happened relative to where BoE was in February.
  • Have a very weak economy being hit by an inflationary supply shock, and there are big trade-offs for us to consider.
  • Thinks UK is probably effectively about 100 basis points above the neutral rate at the moment.
  • When asked about CPI inflation data, says it is still early days. 

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