BofA says USD could be supported in H2 from Middle East tensions, a hawkish Fed, AI-related hyperscaler investment

Newsquawk Staff · 16 Jul 2026, 09:22 UTC

The bank writes that higher oil prices, possible Fed rate rises, sustained US capital inflows and AI-driven inflation could strengthen the currency, despite soft June CPI and technology-sector volatility
BofA has previously forecast 75bps of Fed hikes in 2026

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 21 Oct, 10:29 UTC · what it led with

Pakistan Army Chief Munir brought the "final warning" from the United States to Iranian officials, which called on Iran to submit to the US demands for concessions on the nuclear issue before taking any other steps.
The UK government has approved the Jackdaw North Sea gas field.

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Riksbank maintains its rate at 1.75% as expected; assesses that the probability of a rate increase later this year remains; there is considerable uncertainty and developments call for vigilance
EUR/SEK+0.3%
Norges Bank maintains its rate at 4.25% as expected; may still become necessary to raise the policy rate
EUR/NOK+0.6%
Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.
WTI crude+1.5%

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