BofA (w/e Oct 10th) Total Card Spending +5.1% Y/y (prev. +3% W/W); lower income spending growth has consistently outpaced higher income spending growth over the past few weeks

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BofA (w/e Oct 10th) Total Card Spending +5.1% Y/y (prev. +3% W/W); lower income spending growth has consistently outpaced higher income spending growth over the past few weeks

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Context

Bank card data of this kind sits in the alternative-data tier: it has historically been read as a cross-check on the official retail sales and consumption prints rather than a market mover in its own right, though on quiet calendars it has filled the gap between major releases. An acceleration in the year-on-year rate reads firmer on the consumption leg of the growth mix, which in past episodes of resilient spending data has kept the hawkish side of the rates debate fed and supported the soft-landing narrative in equities. The more analytically interesting line is the compositional one: lower-income spending outpacing higher-income spending cuts against the familiar pattern in which the lower-income cohort leads a slowdown, so it will be read against evidence on wage growth at the bottom of the distribution, excess-savings drawdown, and revolving credit balances. Worth noting that card-panel data has well-known limitations, sample composition, the shift between payment types, and seasonal noise, so the signal tends to be validated only where it corroborates the broader consumption complex. The follow-ons are the next official retail sales and PCE prints and whether other banks' card panels show the same divergence by income band. As a proprietary weekly series, the read is directional rather than decisive.

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