BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida says adoption of AI might have positive and negative implications for productivity and labour markets, adds AI has become a key topic of discussion among central banks, including at the BoJ's monetary policy meetings

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BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida says adoption of AI might have positive and negative implications for productivity and labour markets, adds AI has become a key topic of discussion among central banks, including at the BoJ's monetary policy meetings

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Says

  • AI has implications for several key monetary policy variables, including the output gap, financial conditions and neutral-rate measures.
  • AI represents a strong positive demand shock, adding upward pressure to both the economy and prices.
  • AI could also influence the supply side, potentially in a positive way by lifting productivity and supporting capital accumulation.
  • AI has lifted stock prices and eased financial conditions, while heavy bond issuance by AI-linked companies has added upward pressure to long-term interest rates.
  • We will keep carefully assessing economic and financial indicators to build a consistent view of AI adoption’s impact.
  • Tentatively, the demand-side effects of AI appear to have emerged first, making financial conditions more accommodative overall, though there is a risk of a correction if profits fail to keep pace.

Context

Deputy governors at the BoJ have historically carried more policy weight than equivalents elsewhere, often acting as the board's intellectual centre of gravity, so framing of this kind tends to signal how the committee itself is thinking rather than a personal view. The substance here is an intellectual map, not a policy signal: characterising AI as a positive demand shock with supply-side upside, while flagging the neutral rate and output gap as affected variables, gives the bank analytical room to argue for either tighter or looser settings, and remarks of this exploratory type have in past episodes preceded a formalisation of the theme in outlook reports rather than any near-term decision. The more concrete transmission channel identified is rates: heavy issuance by AI-linked corporates adding upward pressure on the long end, which sits awkwardly alongside the BoJ's continuing normalisation and its sensitivity to term premium at the super-long part of the curve. The sequence worth tracking is whether this framing migrates into the Governor's communications and subsequent outlook material, and whether staff estimates of the neutral rate are revised, since that is where such analysis historically feeds into the policy debate. Tentative language on financial conditions being made more accommodative, with a correction risk attached, reads as balance-sheet-of-risks commentary rather than guidance, consistent with how the bank has handled structural themes in prior hiking cycles.

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