BoE Decision Maker Panel (Sep): firms' year-ahead CPI inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.1%, three-year expectations held at 2.8%, expected wage growth remained at 3.4%

An unchanged DMP print reads as mildly hawkish in the current setup: year-ahead CPI expectations holding near the low-3s with wage growth expectations stuck at 3.4% is the profile that has previously given the MPC's persistence-focused members cover to resist faster easing, since the committee has repeatedly framed this survey as evidence on whether pricing and pay norms are settling back at target-consistent rates. The relevant split is between headline expectations, which the Bank tends to discount when driven by energy or administered prices, and own-price and wage expectations, which it treats as the cleaner read on embedded behaviour; here own-price expectations edged lower while wages held flat, a combination that in past sequences has been cited as progress but not completion. Surveys of this kind rarely move the front end on release but have historically shaped the tone of MPC minutes and speeches in the following days, with SONIA repricing when the print either accelerates or breaks a streak of stickiness. The tells are whether officials reference the wage line specifically in upcoming commentary and how the figures sit alongside the pay settlements data in the labour market release. As an unchanged print, the signal is one of continuity rather than information.