[PRESS CONFERENCE] BoJ Governor Ueda says Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, albeit with some weakness; Japan’s economy is likely to continue growing moderately

The operative shift here is on the risk side, flagging overshoot risk from wage and price-setting behaviour alongside rising inflation expectations, which is the formulation the BoJ has historically used in the run-up to tightening steps rather than during holds. The explicit mention of FX as a watch item matters mechanically: a weak yen feeding import costs has been the channel through which currency moves have previously forced the Bank's hand faster than its domestic data preference implied, and flagging it at the podium tends to steepen the sensitivity of JGBs and the yen to each subsequent CPI and shunto-related wage datapoint. The case distinction is between jawboning and pre-commitment: on past occasions, overshoot-risk language from Ueda has preceded action only when echoed in the summary of opinions and followed by board members repeating it in scheduled remarks. The follow-ons are the next Tankan, the national CPI ex-fresh-food print, and any board commentary before the next meeting, with the yen's behaviour around intervention-sensitive levels a parallel tell given the Ministry of Finance's history of acting when FX is cited as an inflation risk.