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BoJ Governor Ueda says can not say how many months it would take to gauge timing of next rate hike, will look to see if underlying inflation has a clear upward risks

Governor Ueda's comments suggest caution regarding the timing of the next rate hike in Japan, indicating that a clear signal from inflation is necessary before taking action.

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BoJ Governor Ueda says inflation upward risk could be a reason for raising rates, but not the only reason

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BoJ Governor Ueda says can not say how many months it would take to gauge timing of next rate hike, will look to see if underlying inflation has a clear upward risks

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BoJ Governor Ueda says no change to BoJ view that expects underlying inflation to be around 2% from H2 2026

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  • Other six members were mindful of inflation upward risks but did not see the urgency for a rate hike
  • Need to raise rates if current supply shocks have a secondary knock-on effect.
Context

While there is awareness of inflation risks among BoJ members, the lack of urgency hints at a dovish stance, which likely keeps JPY under pressure and affects expectations for fixed income and commodities. Investors should watch market reactions as this implies the BoJ remains in a wait-and-see mode for now.

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