Brazil Poll: Lula 37%, Bolsonaro 30%, Cury 10% in first round of the Presidential Election; Regarding election run-off: Lula 42%, Bolsonaro 41%, according to Quaest

The distinction worth drawing is between the polling itself and what the polling implies for fiscal trajectory: the market's concern in Lula-led scenarios has consistently been the composition of the economic team and the credibility of spending restraint, while Bolsonaro scenarios have been read through adherence to the existing fiscal framework. With the run-off within the margin, the established pattern is that the BRL and front-end rates trade on poll momentum and candidate signalling rather than on any single survey, and positioning tends to stay light until the field narrows. The tells to follow are endorsements from eliminated first-round candidates, whose vote transfer has historically decided close run-offs, and any indication of who would run the finance ministry, which has been the principal transmission channel from electoral politics to asset prices in past cycles. As a single poll, this is descriptive rather than dispositive; the signal strengthens only if corroborated across houses.