Brazil Supreme Court opened a probe in July into Presidential hopeful Bolsonaro over alleged corruption and money laundering crimes, according to a court document

The established pattern in Brazil is that court action against a leading contender re-prices the electoral odds rather than macro fundamentals directly, with the transmission channel running through BRL, local rates and the sovereign spread as investors reassess the likely policy mix of the remaining viable candidates. The distinction worth drawing is between a probe, which is common in Brazil's judicialised politics and frequently stalls, and a formal charge or conviction that triggers eligibility consequences under the country's clean-record rules; markets have tended to fade the former and reprice the latter. The relevant form here is that Brazil's courts and electoral tribunal have a track record of removing or disqualifying front-runners, so the follow-ons are whether prosecutors convert the probe into charges, how polling responds, and whether rival candidates consolidate. Near-term the watch items are further court documents, any campaign or party response, and whether the BRL's reaction conforms to the usual pattern of pricing political risk rather than policy change.