BREXIT TIMETABLE: Can Johnson get the WAB through parliament in three days?

* THE LATEST: Yesterday evening, the government introduced its Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) that would put UK PM Johnson’s Brexit agreement with the EU into UK law. Expectations are for the government’s Brexit deal to have enough support from MPs to pass its initial vote. However, the bill faces a number of amendments, including one for a Customs Union with the EU, for which there is some uncertainty whether or not this vote will have enough votes to pass; last time the HoC voted on a Customs Union with the EU (in its series of ‘indicative votes’), it was defeated 273 to 276 with 89 abstentions. Tory MPs who voted for the Customs Union last time will likely oppose the amendment in favour of the governments deal in its current form, while the DUP are also likely to oppose it. However, the Liberal Democrats and SNP, most of whom abstained last time on account of their opposition to Brexit in all forms, might be inclined to vote for the amendment as a means of scuppering the government’s plan. The government has warned that it is likely to pull the WAB in entirety should any amendments on it pass and go for an election instead. In this instance, an extension from the EU until at least 31 January is likely. 

* PROGRAMME MOTION: Should the WAB pass at 19:00 BST (which many desks see as likely given recent indications of voting intentions by individual MPs), there will immediately be a vote on the government’s proposed timetable for passing the WAB into UK law. The government, in its Programme Motion, is proposing getting the WAB passed in three days, which by historical standards is a very short period of time for Parliament to approve a bill; opposition MPs have been enraged by the timetable, accusing the government of trying to “ram through” the bill without proper scrutiny. Overnight reports warned that the government may be facing a tight vote on the programme motion, with the government possibly needing up to 20 Labour MP votes to make up for Tory rebels. Should MPs vote down the government’s timetable, the government may miss its target of leaving the EU by the end of the month, warned UK Leader of the Commons Reese-Mogg. Most recently, the government confirmed that if it loses its programme motion vote, it will press for an election, apparently as soon as the EU agrees an extension. 

*TIMETABLE:

Today;

12:30 BST – Debate begins on the second reading of the WAB

19:00 BST – Vote on the second reading of the WAB

19:15 BST – Vote on the Programme Motion

19:30 BST – Bills Passage (IF Programme Motion passes) and three hours of debate on amendments at the Committee Stage, followed by the first Committee Stage votes

On Wednesday; starting at 13:00 BST, there will be 12 hours of Committee stage debate on amendments, with votes every three hours. Committee Stage to conclude after midnight. 

On Thursday; starting at 11:00 BST, the Report Stage begins, amendments can still be proposed until 17:00 BST. A final Third Reading Vote on the WAB expected after 19:00 BST.