[CALENDAR ADDITION] US President Trump will greet Chinese President Xi at 10:00EDT/15:00BST, leaders will give remarks at 10:15EDT/15:15BST with bilateral meeting at 11:30EDT/16:30BST, will speak at state dinner at 19:55EDT/00:55BST on Thursday

The distinction worth drawing is between the optics, which are scripted and typically anodyne, and the deliverables, which in past episodes of this kind have ranged from tariff truces and purchase commitments to nothing more than an agreement to keep talking; the market-moving variant has historically been the former, particularly where tariff escalation or export controls are the live issue. Track record here matters: this pairing has a history of truce-style outcomes that have subsequently frayed, so the durability of any commitment has tended to be discounted until implementation details surface. The transmission channel in comparable episodes has run through China-sensitive equities, the offshore yuan, and commodities with bilateral trade exposure, with moves often fading if the readout lacks specifics. The tells to note are whether the meeting runs long or short against schedule, whether working-level officials are read into the room, and whether any joint statement or leader comments follow the dinner. The calendar itself signals a full bilateral format rather than a pull-aside, which sets the bar for deliverables higher than a marginal encounter would.