[CALENDAR UPDATE] US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will participate in tea at 10:35EDT/15:35BST and will visit National Archives at 11:30EDT/16:30BST on Friday

In past rounds of Trump-Xi engagement, the sequence has been cordial optics first, followed by a joint statement, readouts or social media posts, with tariff and trade-war headlines arriving either via leak beforehand or via announcement after; asset moves have been driven by the substance of those follow-ons rather than the choreography. The channel to watch is the usual one: positive trade signalling has historically lifted China-exposed equities, the yuan and commodity proxies such as crude and copper, with the yen and gold softening as the haven bid unwinds, while disappointment has run the mirror image. Notably, the tag set spanning FX, equities, energy and gold reflects that these summits have functioned as binary headline risk events for the whole macro complex, not a single asset. The tell is what follows the ceremonial block: any working lunch, delegation list, or statement language on tariffs, rare earths or export controls will carry more weight than the tea. As a calendar note rather than an outcome, the signal is timing only.