CBO estimates US GDP growth to accelerate to 2.2% in 2026; unemployment to be 4.6% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2028; and the EFFR to decrease to 3.4% in 2026

CBO estimates US GDP growth to accelerate to 2.2% in 2026; unemployment to be 4.6% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2028; and the EFFR to decrease to 3.4% in 2026.

The CBO's estimate for US GDP growth accelerating to 2.2% by 2026 reflects a more optimistic economic outlook, which could influence market expectations for monetary policy and interest rates. The forecasted decrease in the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) to 3.4% suggests potential easing conditions ahead, which may support risk assets and impact fixed income markets. Additionally, the unemployment projections indicate a tight labor market could prevail, influencing consumer spending and growth.