CBRT holds key rate at 37.0%, as expected

In Turkish easing cycles of this kind, the established pattern is a sequence of holds while disinflation is confirmed, followed by measured cuts once the bank judges the monthly prints compatible with its target path, with the risk asymmetry running toward renewed tightening if the exchange rate or expectations deteriorate. The credibility question is structural rather than episodic: the bank's record is read through the degree of political pressure on policy, and past episodes of premature easing under that pressure have ended in sharp lira selloffs and forced reversals, which is why a conservative hold tends to be received as mildly supportive for the currency. The transmission channels are the one-week repo corridor against lira funding costs, the carry differential that anchors foreign positioning in local bonds and swaps, and CDS spreads as the sentiment gauge. Worth watching are the statement's assessment of underlying inflation and demand, any change to guidance on the timing of a first cut, the next monthly inflation print, and reserve accumulation as the tell on how much of the lira's stability is being managed. As an on-expected hold, the signal sits in the tone rather than the rate.