CBRT Inflation Expectations Survey (Oct): Maintains 2026 inflation at 29.6%, lifts end-2027 forecast to 23.3% (prev. 22.7%)

Turkish inflation expectation surveys are watched closely as a gauge of the CBRT's disinflation credibility, with historically stubborn readings limiting the central bank's ability to ease policy. The slight upward revision in the end-2027 forecast suggests expectations remain sticky, a pattern that has typically preceded prolonged periods of restrictive rates in past episodes. When survey data drifts higher, it tends to keep the front end of the Turkish curve under pressure and delays any discussion of rate cuts. The CBRT has previously responded to such stickiness by maintaining a hawkish stance longer than markets initially price, a dynamic that has repeated across multiple tightening cycles. The key follow-on is whether this persistence alters the central bank's tone at its next meeting, particularly regarding the timing of any potential easing. For now, the data reinforces the status quo rather than shifting it.