CBRT Quarterly Inflation report:

An upward revision to the nearer-year forecast with the outer year held steady is the familiar pattern at the CBRT's quarterly inflation reports: the disinflation path is pushed back rather than abandoned, which tends to read as a postponement of easing rather than a change in destination. Historically, forecast revisions of this kind have mattered for the front of the TRY rates curve and for carry pricing mainly through what they imply for the timing and pace of the cutting cycle, with the food component worth separating out since it is the stickier, more supply-driven part of the basket and its revision narrows the room the bank has to argue the shock is transitory. The CBRT's prior form is that forecast updates have at times trailed realised inflation, so the credibility of the unchanged outer-year projection rests on the interim targets holding. The follow-ons are the next monthly CPI prints against the bank's interim checkpoints, any shift in the rate-setting language around real rates, and whether Governor comments accompanying the report frame the revision as data-driven or as a reset of the glidepath. As a scheduled release, the signal is in the revision itself rather than the level.