CBRT September Inflation Expectation Survey shows the 12-month inflation outlook unchanged at 23.7%.

In past Turkish episodes, sticky survey expectations while administered prices and wage settlements ran hot have been the combination that kept real rates in question and prolonged restrictive policy longer than headline inflation trends alone would have implied. The distinction that matters is between the survey's 12-month and end-of-year readings versus the shorter-horizon and market-participant components, since the former capture household and corporate inertia while the latter tend to move faster with the policy rate. On previous occasions an unyielding expectations print has raised the bar for the CBRT to begin or accelerate easing, and has kept the lira's carry case dependent on the credibility of the real rate path. The follow-ons are the next monthly CPI release, the CBRT's rate decision and any revision to its own inflation forecasts, which historically frame how much weight the MPC places on survey persistence.