Chevron (CVX) produces 280k bbl/day in Venezuela, +17% in 2026; Venezuela output could rise to 400k bbl/day by 2028

Chevron (CVX) produces 280k bbl/day in Venezuela, +17% in 2026; Venezuela output could rise to 400k bbl/day by 2028.

Chevron's Venezuelan operations have for years sat at the intersection of US sanctions policy and heavy crude supply, with the company operating under a specific licence that lets it produce and export to the US Gulf Coast where refineries are configured for heavy grades. The relevant read here is on the trajectory of that licence rather than the company itself: Venezuelan volumes have historically risen or fallen on Washington's posture toward Caracas, and any ramp in Chevron's output has tended to track political engagement rather than reservoir economics. At the margin, incremental Venezuelan barrels displace other heavy sours into Gulf Coast refineries and weigh on heavy-light differentials such as the Mars or Maya spreads against WTI, rather than moving the flat price on its own. Worth distinguishing from a pure equity story: for CVX the volumes are modest against group production, so the signal is more about sanctions durability and medium-term supply than near-term earnings. The follow-ons to watch are licence renewals or policy signals from both capitals and any shift in US heavy crude import patterns, which in past episodes have been the first place a change in posture showed up.