Chicago Fed Unemployment Rate Nowcast (Sept., Prelim): 4.13% (prev. 4.08% M/M)

A sequential uptick of this size is within the range such models routinely give back, so the relevant pattern is whether the drift persists across successive readings, since a ratcheting nowcast has tended to foreshadow a firmer signal in the actual unemployment rate than a one-off wobble. The distinction that matters for rates pricing is between a rise driven by labour force entry and one driven by outright job loss: the former is consistent with steady policy, the latter steepens the front end as cut expectations build. With the Fed's reaction function now more sensitive to the employment leg than the inflation leg, the follow-ons are the official payrolls and household data and any official commentary treating a rising rate as threshold-crossing rather than noise. As a preliminary model estimate rather than a release from the statistical agency, the signal is directional and second-tier.