Chile Government estimates 2026 average copper price at USD 6.15/lb and 2027 at USD 5.65/lb.

Budget-price assumptions from the world's largest copper producer are a planning input, not a forecast in the trading sense, but they set the fiscal baseline against which Chilean revenue, royalty payments and producer guidance are later marked. Past episodes have tended to show Santiago's estimates landing conservative in upcycles and stale in drawdowns, with the revisions mattering more than the initial print when they feed into the budget process. The level implied here sits well above where the market has historically traded, so the relevant read is the trajectory across the two years, a decline that assumes easing tightness rather than spot strength. For the complex itself the transmission is indirect: state-linked producer capex and Codelco output plans respond to these assumptions, which feed longer-dated supply expectations rather than the front of the LME curve. Worth watching are the revisions as the budget advances, any accompanying output guidance, and how the assumptions compare with consensus forward curves, since a gap between fiscal assumptions and the strip has historically been corrected in the assumptions, not the market.