China's Foreign Minister met with their Iranian counterpart; encouraged Iran and the US to exercise rationality

The operative detail is the explicit mention of reopening the Strait: in past episodes, Chinese commentary of this kind has tended to come after a disruption or credible threat is already in train, not as routine diplomacy, so the signal is that conditions on the water warrant it. The encouragement of dialogue between Iran and the Gulf states is the softer, more durable part of the readout; China has historically favoured de-escalatory framing and avoided taking a side between Tehran and the GCC, and this fits that form. The transmission channel for markets is freight, war-risk insurance premia and the prompt crude spread rather than outright supply loss, and tanker traffic data and insurance rates are the tells on whether rhetoric is matched by conditions on the ground. The follow-ons worth noting are whether Washington or Tehran publicly responds, and whether any concrete transit or naval-escort arrangement emerges from the Gulf-state dialogue track.