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Citi says US exceptionalism may support US equities and a stronger USD

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  • Citi says a sharp divergence in economic data, with accelerating US momentum and a weakening G9, likely signals a return to US exceptionalism.
  • The regime would likely support continued medium-term US equity strength and a stronger USD, despite recent tactical risk-off signals being triggered.
  • Citi says preferred expressions could combine SPX upside with EURUSD downside, noting the historical SPX/USD correlation is unstable but that such positions offer positive expected value based on historical hit rates versus market pricing.

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