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CNB: Board voted 7-0 to hold rates, meeting inflation target still requires relatively restrictive policy at present

The Czech National Bank's unanimous decision to hold rates indicates a commitment to maintaining a restrictive policy to meet inflation targets, despite mixed economic forecasts.

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CNB: Board voted 7-0 to hold rates, meeting inflation target still requires relatively restrictive policy at present

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Forecasts

Average inflation

  • 2.2% in 2026 (prev. 1.6%)
  • 2.4% in 2027 (prev. 2.1%)

GDP

  • 2026 at 2.5% (prev. 2.9%)
  • 2.7% in 2027 (prev. 2.9%)

Average Exchange rate (EUR/CZK) 

  • 24.3 in 2026 (prev. 24.4)
  • 24.4 in 2027 (prev. 24.5)

Commentary

  • Important that shocks do not filter into inflation expectations.
  • Board will monitor impact of middle east conflict. 
  • Inflation near target allows time to analyse reaction. 
  • Will evaluate data at next meeting.
  • Core inflation to move to around 3%.
Context

The upward revision in inflation expectations signals potential challenges ahead, which could weigh on monetary policy adjustments and indicate cautious sentiment about growth, particularly in light of global economic pressures and inflation dynamics.

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