CNB Statement: Relatively restrictive policy is still required; board voted 7-0 to leave rates on hold.

• Decision to hold was underpinned by new macroeconomic forecast.

• Board assessed risks and uncertainties of outlook for fulfilment of inflation target as inflationary overall.
• Inflationary risks include persistence of core inflation, possible acceleration in money supply growth, and continued rapid wage growth.
• Anti-inflationary risks include weak performance of some euro area economies and possible global correction of asset prices.

• Board will continue to closely monitor macroeconomic impacts of conflict in the Middle East.

• GDP Growth 2026: 2.2% (prev. 2.5%) 2027: 2.7% (prev. 2.7%)
• Inflation 2026: 2.0% (prev. 2.2%) 2027: 2.5% (prev. 2.4%)
• 3-Month PRIBOR 2026: 3.7% (prev. 3.8%) 2027: 3.9% (prev. 3.6%)
• Exchange Rate (CZK/EUR) 2026: 24.3 (prev. 24.3) 2027: 24.4 (prev. 24.4)

A unanimous hold with explicitly inflationary risk skew is the CNB's familiar posture: among central European banks it has historically been the most hawkish of the peer set, and statements framing core persistence, wage growth and money supply as the dominant risks have typically preceded extended pauses rather than imminent easing. The forecast revisions are the substance here: a lower near-term growth path alongside inflation settling at target on the horizon, combined with a slightly higher 3M PRIBOR path further out, reads as the model itself endorsing the 'relatively restrictive' language, which narrows the case for near-term cuts. The koruna channel is the usual transmission for CNB signals of this kind, with a hawkish-risk-skew hold tending to support CZK on the crosses given the board's long-standing sensitivity to imported inflation through the exchange rate. The anti-inflationary risks named, weak euro area activity and a possible global asset price correction, are the standard escape clauses this board has used in the past to pivot when external conditions deteriorate. Worth noting is that the CNB has form for acting against its own communication when the exchange rate or core dynamics shift, so the statement's conditionality matters more than its tone. Follow-ons are the board minutes and any Governor press remarks for how close the easing debate actually is beneath the 7-0 surface.