CRUDE WRAP: WTI (M6) SETTLES USD 0.61 HIGHER AT USD 95.52/BBL; BRENT (N6) SETTLES USD 1.23 HIGHER AT USD 101.29/BBL
The crude complex was slightly firmer as participants still await Iran’s response to the US, which is reportedly due to come at some point on Friday. On Thursday and overnight, there were reports of new strikes in the UAE and Iran. However, the US military downplayed this, saying they don't see escalation, and Trump said the ceasefire is still on. Later, benchmarks saw upside in the European morning amid reports that Iran Navy seized the tanker Ocean Koi in a special operation, after it allegedly attempted to disrupt oil exports and Iranian national interests. Thereafter, benchmarks saw choppy trade as the Iranian response is due. WTI and Brent saw a knee-jerk lower in the US afternoon after Trump announced there would be a three-day ceasefire (May 9-11th) in the war between Ukraine and Russia. For the record, the weekly Baker Hughes rig count saw oil rise 2 to 410, natgas fall 1 to 129, leaving the total up 1 to 548. WTI traded between USD 93.82-98.64/bbl and Brent USD 99.55-102.92/bbl.
The crude oil markets showed resilience today, closing higher amid geopolitical tension surrounding Iran and mixed cues from military activity. The potential for escalated conflict remains a concern, particularly with the Iranian Navy's recent actions, while a ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict may be tempering some upward pressure on prices. Overall, the oil market appears sensitive to geopolitical developments, which could affect future pricing depending on any forthcoming announcements from Iran.