CRUDE WRAP: WTI (N6) SETTLES USD 1.60 HIGHER AT 93.76/BBL; BRENT (Q6) SETTLES USD 1.02 HIGHER AT 96.00/BBL
The crude complex settled with gains and continually edged higher throughout the duration of the US session. While Middle East headlines were conflicting, and many of the more recent ones seem of a more positive nature, the headline which sparked the initial strength in oil was a Fars report. It stated that informed sources said that the exchange of messages between Iran and the US, aimed at achieving what has been described as an initial MoU between Tehran and Washington, has been halted for at least several days. Since then, despite WTI and Brent hitting fresh highs, US Secretary of State Rubio said they are in talks with Iran, and that the "war in Iran is over". Meanwhile, Amwaj Media citing a senior Iranian political source, said there has not been any halt in communication with the US via intermediaries, and that movement on multiple parallel yet interconnected tracks suggests they may be on the cusp of something. Trump soon echoed this, adding that reports that Iran and the US stopped speaking a few days ago are false, and conversations have been going on continuously, but one way or another, Iran needs to make a deal.
Away from US/Iran but still on the Middle East footing, Israeli Broadcasting Authority, citing sources, said negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are progressing well, while AFP reported that Hezbollah will not accept a "partial ceasefire" deal with Israel. In more recent commentary, Sky News Arabia remarked that the Israel/Lebanon delegations have not yet been able to reach decisive points regarding the ceasefire issue, but the US seeks to reach a comprehensive ceasefire at the end of tomorrow's round of negotiations.
On the supply front, Iraq plans to increase crude oil exports via pipelines from 220k BPD to 770k BPD in two phases over two and a half months, and plans to raise crude oil exports by truck to neighbouring countries to 420k BPD in three phases.
Ahead, private inventory metrics are due after-hours, with focus, as always, on any further geopolitical updates ahead of the main macro event this week being US NFP on Friday. On Tuesday, WTI traded between USD 90.12-94.00/bbl and Brent USD 92.83-96.28/bbl.