CRUDE WRAP: WTI (N6) SETTLES USD 3.36 HIGHER AT 104.38/BBL; BRENT (N6) SETTLES USD 2.84 HIGHER AT 112.10/BBL
The crude complex was firmer to start the week, and saw choppy trade in mixed Middle East reporting. In the European morning, WTI and Brent hit lows of USD 98.60/bbl and USD 106.87/bbl, respectively, after a couple of positive US/Iran updates. Firstly, Tasnim sources reported that, unlike their previous texts, the Americans have agreed in the new text to lift Iran's oil sanctions during the negotiation period, while Al Arabiya reported Iran has agreed to a long-term nuclear freeze instead of a complete dismantling, and working on a condition transfer of enriched uranium to Russia instead of the US. However, after benchmarks printed these troughs, it has been one-way traffic higher since, to pare all losses, and more, to settle around highs. Behind the move, were a couple of reports pushing back on the earlier constructive rhetoric we had. Al Jazeera, citing a source, said Iran has days, not weeks, to offer progress to the US to break the deadlock, and Trump is losing patience with the progress of talks, while Tasnim noted fundamental differences between the Iranian and American texts still remain. Continuing to add to the moves, a senior US official and a source briefed on the issue told Axios that Iran has given an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal. Into the settlement, which spurred benchmarks to peaks, Israel press, citing a US source, said that an additional American strike on Iran "is not a question of whether but of when". As such, traders await any further update and the next risk catalyst.
(20:20BST/15:20EDT) NOTE
After the settlement, US President Trump posted on Truth Social that he has called off the planned attack on Iran tomorrow following requests from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar. The news saw oil prices tumble, wiping out the majority of the gains seen this afternoon. Trump said that the Middle Eastern allies asked him to hold off on attacks as serious negotiations are now taking place, and that they believe a deal will be made, one that is acceptable to the US. Trump said the deal will include no nuclear weapons for Iran. Although he has called off the attack for now, Trump added he has instructed officials to be prepared to go ahead with a full, large-scale assault on Iran at a moment's notice, in the event that an acceptable deal is not reached.
The market's reaction to crude oil prices today reflects heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and US relations. Initial optimism from potential progress in negotiations gave way to concerns over President Trump's decision-making, particularly around military action, which could lead to volatility in energy markets as traders assess the motivations and timelines involved in these discussions.