CRUDE WRAP: WTI (N6) SETTLES USD 3.44 LOWER AT 98.07/BBL; BRENT (N6) SETTLES USD 4.57 LOWER AT 109.87/BBL
The crude complex was lower, as Middle East headlines dominated the tape. There was plenty of newsflow through the day, with the highlight being the the US seemingly trying to play down the recent Iranian attacks. Trump remarked that Iran knows what not to do, and when asked what would violate the ceasefire, said "you'll find out", but that the US does not want to go and kill people. In addition, General Caine, on Iranian attacks, said they have all been below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point, while Hegseth stressed the ceasefire still stands. Despite saying that from the US, Israel reportedly conveyed a message to Washington that the security and military leadership wants to resume attacks on Iran, and Israel believes that negotiations with Iran are a waste of time. As such, attention resides on any further escalation or descalation. Regarding the Iranian Proposal, the US is yet to formally confirm it has replied to Tehran, however, Trump reportedly told Kan News that the proposal was unacceptable to him. On the day, WTI and Brent was pretty choppy through the European morning to hit highs of USD 100.92/bbl and 114.44/bbl, respectively, before gradually grinding lower through the US afternoon to see WTI hit a trough of USD 97.33/bbl and Brent USD 109.60/bbl. After-hours, attention is on weekly private inventory data. On the supply side, Russia's Kirishi oil refinery has halted oil processing following Ukrainian drone attacks, according to reports, citing sources.
The significant decline in WTI and Brent crude prices reflects heightened geopolitical tensions, primarily involving Iran and Israel, which are shaping market sentiment. The choppy trading suggests volatility may persist as investors react to potential escalations or de-escalations in the conflict. Additionally, reports of a Russian refinery halting operations due to drone attacks could further impact supply dynamics in the coming days.