CRUDE WRAP: WTI (V6) SETTLES USD 0.13 LOWER AT USD 82.23/BBL; BRENT (X6) SETTLES USD 0.33 LOWER AT USD 86.94/BBL

The crude complex was choppy, settling little changed as headlines included both geopoltical escalatory and de-escalatory updates After settlement on Tuesday, downside in oil was seen as Russian outlet Ria reported that a aceasefire between the US and Iran has been agreed upon, and it includes free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and will be announced in the coming days. Since this report, we have had nothing similar, but it sparked notable downside throughout overnight and European trade. Benchmarks hit session lows in the European morning, potentially as traders got to their desks and reacted to the news. Today, WTI and Brent saw upside as a Senior Iranian Official stated that an agreement with Oman with the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been finalised, and they are still working on an agreement. Moreover, further gains were seen in the US afternoon as BBG TV reported that Russian President Putin is planning Ukraine escalation and seeing talks as fruitless.

In terms of the weekly EIA data, crude saw a slightly smaller build than anticipated, while gasoline and distillates both saw a larger draw than forecasted. Overall, weekly crude production rose 13k to 13.843mln, with US SPR falling to 289.7mln from 293.4mln. For the record, WTI traded between USD 79.62-82.02/bbl and Brent USD 84.56-86.65/bbl.

Sessions of this kind, where the tape whips between escalatory and de-escalatory headlines and settles little changed, are characteristic of geopolitical risk-premium trading: the premium builds on unconfirmed escalation and bleeds out on any ceasefire talk, with the net settle often masking a wide intraday range. The distinction that matters here is the source quality: a single-outlet report of a US-Iran agreement with Hormuz navigation guarantees, uncorroborated and later partially contradicted by a named official, is the sort of headline that has historically reversed within a session, and denial follow-ups from the parties involved have tended to restore most of the premium quickly. Strait of Hormuz risk is the channel that separates this from routine supply noise, since a large share of seaborne crude transits it and even the threat of disruption feeds freight, insurance and prompt spreads rather than just flat price. The EIA print was secondary but not neutral: a smaller crude build with larger product draws points to tighter downstream balances, a configuration that has historically supported cracks even when flat crude is headline-driven. Worth noting is the intraday pattern of lows in the European morning and recovery into the US afternoon, the usual sequence when an overnight headline meets a fuller liquidity pool. Follow-ons are confirmation or denial of the reported ceasefire terms, official Iranian and Omani statements on the Hormuz file, and any corroboration of the reported Russian posture on Ukraine, each of which has historically been the trigger for the next leg rather than the inventory data.