CRUDE WRAP: WTI (X6) SETTLES USD 0.01 HIGHER AT 89.44/BBL; BRENT (Z6) SETTLES USD 0.26 HIGHER AT USD 100.58/BBL

Sessions where crude settles flat despite active supply-disruption headlines tend to mark the point where the geopolitical risk premium has already been priced and marginal news is being absorbed rather than chased; in past Gulf disruption episodes, the premium has historically held only while flows are actually impaired and has bled out quickly once resumption timelines firm up. The East-West pipeline detail is the relevant channel: rerouted Saudi crude via the Red Sea limits how much a Gulf chokepoint disruption tightens seaborne supply, and damage confined to pumping stations rather than the line itself is the kind of distinction that has previously separated multi-week outages from days-long ones. The Brent-WTI spread near these levels is the tell for how much of the risk is being treated as logistical rather than structural, with freight and insurance costs transmitting first. US-Iran talks tracking through Qatari mediation follows the established pattern of this kind of negotiation, where progress reports and intermittent kinetic events run in parallel and the premium oscillates with each. The EIA demand revisions, modestly lower, sit in the background; demand-side downgrades of this size have historically mattered less than the supply calendar. Watch the next EIA inventory print and any confirmation of loading schedules at Gulf terminals for whether the premium rebuilds or deflates.