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CRUDE WRAP: WTI (X6) SETTLES USD 2.45 HIGHER AT USD 94.61/BBL: BRENT (Z6) 2.10 HIGHER AT USD 100.22/BBL

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at , 20 minutes before this page
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CRUDE WRAP: WTI (X6) SETTLES USD 2.45 HIGHER AT USD 94.61/BBL: BRENT (Z6) 2.10 HIGHER AT USD 100.22/BBL

Yemen’s Houthis say they attacked Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu; attacked what they called a “sensitive target” in Saudi capital Riyadh

Mexican Interest Rate Decision 6.50% vs. Exp. 6.5% (Prev. 6.50%); decision was unanimous

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Crude prices settled higher despite fresh reports pointing towards a potential US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade, as many doubts and hurdles still remain. In the Reuters report, a Senior Iranian official notes the most feasible way would be Iran re allowing navigation through the waterway in return for the US lifting its blockade and the potential for Iran to regain frozen assets. However, the source noted chances of diplomatic resolve are extremely low given America's "excessive demands", and a senior European official described Iran's demand as a "very long list". Nonetheless, the report sparked a pullback in crude prices from WTI's and Brent's highs of USD 96.78/bbl and USD 102.39/bbl, respectively. In between WTI and Brent settlements, NBC reported that the Iranian President, on the sidelines of the UNGA, noted: “We don’t want it to get to the midterm elections”. He added,  “We wish Americans to return to the MOU before the midterms.” More pressure arrived in crude, albeit around half the move has faded at the time of writing. Upside in the European session was in response to the Senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, linking the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, including the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, could change the battlefield; "The scope of the war may expand to the Indian Ocean and other regions". Additionally, a Houthi spokesperson said they will continue to enforce the equation of "a siege for a siege" and "an escalation for an escalation". Post-settlement, the Houthis announced they targeted Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and a sensitive target in Riyadh, adding to further upside.

Energy updates

  • US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has contacted executives at several major US refiners to gauge support for voluntarily restricting diesel exports, Reuters reports, according to three people familiar with the discussions.
  • Saudi East-West pipeline is reportedly building up crude volumes, though tanker loading have yet to resume at Yanbu, Reuters reported.
  • Saudi Aramco CEO says that it is studying a "a fourth and a fifth route" for crude oil exports; noted that the Co. can restore disrupted operations within days, Nikkei reported.
Context

Sessions where crude settles higher on the same day as de-escalation headlines are a familiar pattern in conflict-driven rallies: the market has historically treated reported diplomatic frameworks as noise until there is verifiable change in physical flows, and here the sourcing itself concedes the odds of resolution are low. The mechanism at work is the war-risk premium layered on top of transit exposure, with Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab and now Yanbu and Riyadh all in the same headline set, which widens the premium from a strait-closure tail to a broader Gulf infrastructure and freight and insurance story. The intraday sequence is the standard one for these episodes: a geopolitical threat lifts prices, a diplomatic report pares the move, and a fresh kinetic headline restores it, with each fade shallower than the last while attacks continue. The Brent-WTI spread at these levels bears watching as a gauge of how much of the premium is seaborne-supply specific versus broad, and the East-West pipeline build-up without resumed Yanbu loadings is the kind of operational detail that has historically mattered more than official commentary. The reported US approach to refiners on diesel export restraint is a separate channel worth noting, since voluntary export curbs in past tight-product episodes have tended to signal official concern about domestic product cracks and have altered Atlantic basin product flows even when never formalised. Follow-ons are whether tanker loadings actually resume, whether the pipeline routes Aramco describes translate into sustained export capacity, and whether the diplomatic track produces anything beyond statements.

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