Russia's Mayor see global gas prices to continue to rise in 2026, but then fall by 40% by 2029; expects a 21.7% decline in oil produce exports from Russia in 2026

The byline appears garbled, but remarks of this kind from the senior Russian official overseeing energy have historically functioned as signalling rather than forecast: official Moscow projections on gas prices and export volumes are read for what they imply about production intentions, OPEC+ posture, and the state's budget math rather than for their point estimates. The two halves of the message pull in different directions. A projected rise in gas prices through 2026 followed by a steep decline speaks to the standard cycle in which new liquefaction capacity commissioned later in the decade loosens the market, a sequence officials in gas-exporting states have cited before when defending current discipline. The projected fall in oil product exports is the more concrete tell: declines of that type have in past episodes reflected some mix of refinery downtime, domestic supply priority, sanctions friction, or deliberate curtailment, and the mechanism matters for the market, since product tightness transmits through refining margins and diesel cracks rather than the crude flat price itself. Russian supply commentary has a track record of preceding rather than following actual export data, so the worth-watching follow-ons are seaborne product loadings and any corresponding shift in OPEC+ rhetoric. As official guidance rather than hard data, the signal is intent, not flow.