CRUDE WRAP: WTI (Z6) SETTLES USD 0.18 LOWER AT USD 88.56/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLES USD 0.02 HIGHER AT USD 95.84/BBL

The crude complex was more or less flat on Friday but posted losses on the week, with no notable Middle East developments in the session. Earlier in the week, there was optimism that a US-Iran peace deal was getting close, but the geopolitical environment now remains uncertain on both the Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran fronts. Newsflow was sparse on Friday, and participants now await any de- or re-escalatory rhetoric over the weekend. However, Axios, citing sources, reported that the Mossad Director was in Washington on Friday for talks with senior Trump administration officials on the Iran war. The report added that Israeli PM Netanyahu is pressing Trump to resume the war, although the President has so far rejected that pressure. In the weekly Baker Hughes rig count, oil was unchanged at 463, and natgas fell by 4 to 127, leaving the total down 3 at 601. Highlighting the narrow ranges relative to recent sessions, WTI traded between USD 87.80-89.64/bbl, while Brent hit a low of USD 95.06/bbl vs. a high of USD 97.13/bbl.

Weekly wraps of this kind typically close out a session where the geopolitical risk premium has been the dominant driver, and the sequencing here is familiar: optimism on a US-Iran track earlier in the week bled premium out of the curve, and the flat Friday with narrow ranges reflects a market that has already repositioned and is unwilling to carry fresh exposure into a weekend headline window. The distinction worth drawing is between de-escalation and re-escalation risk over the weekend: the former tends to express itself through further premium unwinding concentrated in the front of the curve and in timespreads, the latter through a gap open that historically retraces in part once the supply response, or lack of one, becomes clear, since rhetoric without physical disruption has tended to fade faster than actual outages. The reported presence of Israel's intelligence chief in Washington, with the Israeli side pressing for resumed strikes and the US administration so far declining, keeps the tail bid alive and is the kind of friction that has previously prolonged premium even as base-case diplomacy advances. The Baker Hughes print, oil rigs unchanged with the total count edging lower, is consistent with the longer-run pattern of US shale supply responding sluggishly to price, limiting how far any demand-side or geopolitical selloff can run before the supply floor reasserts. The immediate tell is Sunday evening reopening and whether weekend rhetoric on either the Iran or Russia-Ukraine front breaks the current holding pattern, with Brent-WTI spread behaviour worth noting as a gauge of whether any move is supply-driven or broad dollar-driven.