CRUDE WRAP: WTI (Z6) SETTLES USD 0.81 LOWER AT 86.04/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLES USD 1.08 LOWER AT 91.49/BBL

The crude complex was lower amid continued optimism over a breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks. Crude benchmarks tested session lows on Tuesday after Al Hadath, citing sources, reported that Iran agreed to US demands to cut its levels of highly enriched uranium. This is in keeping with Monday’s reports that Washington has allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at 3.67%, which Tehran has agreed to. Amid plenty of headline newsflow, WTI and Brent later rose to session highs of USD 86.93/bbl and USD 92.84/bbl, respectively, after Iran’s Security Chief Rezaei said Iran had asked the US for a clear and explicit response to its conditions but said Iran has not received one to date, according to Al Mayadeen. Rezaei added that the Strait of Hormuz will not open until Iran’s conditions are met, and that US claims of ongoing negotiations and a Qatar meeting are false. Oil moved higher as his comments poured cold water on the recent positive US-Iran rhetoric. Most recently, the Jerusalem Post reported that Qatari PM Al Thani told G7 Foreign Ministers in Paris that Doha had secured “at least two weeks” to pursue diplomatic efforts aimed at reaching an understanding between Washington and Tehran, but added that significant differences remain, with several key issues still unresolved.

Elsewhere, Ukraine-Russia trilateral talks finished for the day and are set to continue on Wednesday. In the November EIA STEO, the agency kept its 2026 world oil demand forecast unchanged at 102.4mln bpd and cut its 2027 forecast to 104.4mln bpd from 104.6mln bpd. Looking ahead, private inventory data are due after-hours.

This is the classic headline-chasing regime around US-Iran diplomacy, where the complex trades in sharp two-way swings on each incremental report: optimism over enrichment terms and a negotiated framework compresses the geopolitical risk premium, while any pushback from Iranian security officials restores it. Episodes of this kind have tended to follow a set sequence, with the premium bleeding out as talks progress but snapping back violently on any denial, breakdown, or Hormuz rhetoric, since the strait is the one channel through which diplomatic failure translates into actual supply loss rather than sentiment. The distinction worth drawing is between a deal that returns sanctioned barrels to market, which weighs structurally on flat price and timespreads, and a ceasefire-style arrangement that merely removes tail risk, which fades faster. The conflicting sourcing on the day, Al Hadath versus Al Mayadeen, and the denial of a Qatar meeting followed by confirmation of a Doha diplomatic window, is typical of negotiation-phase noise and argues for treating single-source reports as low-conviction. Worth watching next are the private inventory prints due after-hours, the continuation of Ukraine-Russia trilateral contacts, and whether the two-week Qatari window produces concrete terms on enrichment levels, which is the verifiable core of any agreement.