Daily US Equity Opening News - AAPL raises foldable iPhone production target; NVDA launches cloud revenue-sharing model

DAY AHEAD:

• US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.5%, NQ +0.7%, YM +0.5%, RUT +0.9%
• EVENTS: Tesla (TSLA) is likely to report Q2 delivery figures today, with the consensus looking for 396,466 vehicles, while a Tesla-compiled consensus puts the estimate slightly higher at 406,024 units.
• DATA: In North America, US factory orders for May are due (prev. 4.8% M/M).
• CENTRAL BANKS: BoE’s Mann will participate in a fireside chat (text release expected).
• ENERGY: EIA natural gas storage change due (prev. 76bcf); Baker Hughes weekly rig counts due (prev. oil 440, total 573).

NEWS:

TECH

• AI Regulation - The US government is in advanced talks with AI companies including OpenAI, Anthropic and Google to create voluntary standards for frontier model releases, to be announced as soon as next week, according to the FT.
• Apple (AAPL) - Apple is reportedly in negotiations to purchase memory chips from Pentagon-blacklisted Chinese firms ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies for use in devices sold in China, according to Bloomberg. CEO Tim Cook has appealed to Treasury Secretary Bessent to soften potential political fallout. Apple currently sources memory from Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, and last week raised prices across Macs, iPads and other devices citing an unprecedented memory shortage.
• Apple (AAPL) - Apple has told suppliers to prepare to produce about 10mln foldable iPhones this year (up from a previous forecast of 7-8mln unites), and has booked components for 80mln smartphones across new H2 2026 models, including the iPhone Pro, iPhone Pro Max and first foldable iPhone, according to Nikkei. At least two further models are planned for H1 2027, with 2026 total production set to exceed 220mln units. Apple is also preparing a revamped entry-level MacBook Pro, code-named K104, for as soon as the first half of 2027, Bloomberg reports.
• Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia introduced a revenue-sharing and credit-support business model allowing AI cloud partners to procure Nvidia infrastructure for AI-native and enterprise customers; Nvidia would earn standard product revenue plus a share of the cloud revenue. Sharon AI and Firmus are among the first partners, with Sharon AI deploying up to 40,000 Grace Blackwell GB300 GPUs and Firmus building a campus in Batam, Indonesia, scaling to 360 megawatts and up to 170,000 Nvidia GPUs.
• OpenAI - OpenAI reportedly proposed handing the US government a 5% stake in the company, worth roughly USD 42.6bln based on its USD 852bln March valuation, the FT reports. CEO Sam Altman argued a government holding is the best way to share AI’s upside, with the arrangement potentially extended to other US AI companies.
• SoftBank (SFTBY), OpenAI - SoftBank has reopened talks with a lending consortium including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Mizuho for a USD 10bln margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake, now offering a corporate guarantee if the collateral loses value, according to Reuters. SoftBank faces a March 2027 deadline to repay a USD 40bln bridge loan used to finance its OpenAI investment.
• SoftBank (SFTBY) - SoftBank Group Corp. and SoftBank Corp. are launching SB Neo Inc. this month to offer AI chips and cloud services to US companies from next fiscal year. The venture, 51% owned by SoftBank Corp., targets 10GW of data centre capacity by around 2030 and could lift SoftBank Corp.'s annual operating income to JPY 3tln-4tln, Bloomberg said.
• Samsung (SSNLF), SK Hynix (HXSCL) - Samsung Group pledged KRW 140tln to build HBM fabs, packaging facilities, OLED display lines and advanced battery factories in Chungcheong Province, as part of a KRW 392tln industrywide investment in the region, South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources said. SK Hynix will also build HBM packaging fabs there, under South Korea’s tripolar mega projects initiative.
• Palantir (PLTR) - Upgraded at DA Davidson to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 175 PT (prev. 165). The company has "grown into its valuation" as its profits are up significantly and the stock's multiple has come in. The firm believes Palantir has "several competitive advantages over all other software companies" that are becoming more pronounced due to AI. The firm thinks recent developments show why customers will use Palantir "as a way to orchestrate AI models." The company can now swap the AI models underneath its solution, which removes its biggest perceived threat - the notion that companies will go to Anthropic and OpenAI to solve their biggest problems.
• Adobe (ADBE) - Upgraded at HSBC to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a USD 308 PT (prev. 282). The firm upgraded the shares after re-evaluating the company's risk associated with its AI-powered competitors. Adobe maintains strong revenue growth even though AI design tools were some of the first major AI applications available in the market. HSBC believes the company's platform has "proved to be sticky" due to user workflow familiarity and new AI-powered features being embedded. The firm thinks the market is overestimating the adverse impact of AI-based design tools on Adobe's business.
• Ouster (OUST) - Filed mixed automatic mixed securities shelf - priced 3.62mln common shares at USD 55.22 in public offfering.

COMMUNICATIONS

• Alphabet (GOOG) - Google lost its long-running challenge against a EUR 4.1bln EU antitrust fine at the European Court of Justice, which upheld the European Commission's penalty for abusing Android's market dominance. The fine was first levied in 2018, and the court's ruling is legally binding.

FINANCIALS

• Blue Owl (OWL) - Blue Owl's BDCs impose caps after 18.8% and 38.1% requests to exit.
• Trump Accounts - The US Treasury announced the investment lineup for Trump accounts, selecting ETFs from State Street (STT), BlackRock (BLK) and Vanguard, with the State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF serving as the default option at launch. The scheme deposits USD 1,000 of seed money into accounts for each child with a valid Social Security number born between 2025-2028.
• Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) - Cboe Global Markets is seeking US regulatory approval to list “binary KPI options” — all-or-nothing contracts tied to whether a company’s reported metric meets a preset threshold, rather than stock price movement, according to an SEC filing. The contracts would track 23 companies and more than 100 metrics, including SpaceX (SPCX) revenue, Nvidia (NVDA) data centre sales, and JPMorgan (JPM) credit-loss provisions.
• Robinhood (HOOD) - Robinhood is rolling out perpetual futures tied to commodities, ETFs and currencies for eligible European customers, including contracts linked to gold, silver, crude oil and the EURUSD rate, with leverage of up to 10x.
• JPMorgan (JPM) - JPMorgan has invested over GBP 1bln into Chase UK and plans to expand across Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands, according to Bloomberg. Chase UK has around 3mln customers vs Monzo’s 15mln, though its GBP 30bln in assets at end-2025 approaches the GBP 35bln ringfencing cap that could limit new lending.
• Susquehanna International Group - The SEC is examining allegations that unknown insider traders made USD 100mln on options bets ahead of a Chinese regulatory crackdown on cross-border brokerages, according to Bloomberg. Susquehanna, which lost more than USD 70mln as counterparty, sued 100 John Doe defendants, with a federal judge freezing accounts at Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Futu Holdings and Up Fintech Holdings.
• UBS Group (UBS) - UBS will open bank accounts for US employees as early as December to test pricing and products before rolling out full banking services to US wealth management clients from mid-2027, according to the FT. The move follows UBS securing a national banking licence earlier this year. Separately, the SNB said UBS already has sufficient capital to meet proposed new requirements, noting the bank holds USD 9bln in capital reserves at its Swiss unit; the news comes as the government wants UBS to raise domestic common equity capital backing of foreign operations to 100% (from 60%), which UBS estimates would require adding around USD 20bln in CET1 capital, Bloomberg reports.
• Wedbush - Tech analyst Dan Ives has departed Wedbush after eight years to launch a “modern merchant bank” spanning research, capital raising, advisory and investing across tech, energy, infrastructure and financials, Bloomberg reports. He will continue TV and radio commentary, and provide more details in the coming weeks.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

• Amazon (AMZN) - Launched 29 Project Kuiper satellites into planned low-Earth orbit on 2nd July. It used a United Launch Alliance rocket from Cape Canaveral; ULA confirmed the satellites were deployed as planned. Project Kuiper is Amazon’s satellite broadband network, intended to deploy thousands of LEO satellites to provide fast, reliable internet.
• Rivian (RIVN) - Reported Q2 deliveries 12,194 (exp. 10,518) , +14% Y/Y; raises its FY delivery guidance to 65k-70k (prev. guided 62k-67k)
• Tesla (TSLA) - Tesla's wholesale sales in China in June were 89,091 units.
• Alibaba (BABA) - Alibaba and AUS Merchant Services, a unit of Ant Group, will pay USD 600mln to resolve a DoJ probe into failing to prevent illegal pharmaceutical sales on their platforms. Alibaba will pay a USD 125mln penalty and forfeit USD 200mln; AUS will pay USD 85mln and forfeit USD 190mln under a non-prosecution agreement.
• Ford (F) - CEO wants level playing field with Toyota (TM) and General Motors (GM) imports as USMCA trade talks reopen, CNBC reports; calls for penalties on import-heavy automakers.
• Toyota (TM) - Toyota may partially compensate suppliers for losses stemming from its cancellation of the Lexus LF-ZC electric sedan, with some suppliers facing losses of up to JPY 10bln each, and total compensation potentially reaching tens of billions of yen, Nikkei reports. The decision has affected the entire supply chain as suppliers had invested heavily in gigacasting production lines for the project.
• Tesla (TSLA) - Tesla is expected to report Q2 deliveries of approximately 396,466 vehicles when it publishes figures today, according to Bloomberg; that would represent +3% Y/Y rise, but remains well below the near-500,000 units Tesla achieved at its peak. Tesla’s own company-compiled consensus, drawn from 22 sell-side analysts, puts the estimate slightly higher at 406,024 units.
• Nissan (NSANY), Renault (RNLSY) - Nissan CEO Ivan Espinosa said the alliance with Renault is collaborating better than ever, downplaying Renault’s abstention from the vote to reappoint outside director Motoo Nagai, which he attributed to concerns over Nagai’s tenure length.
• Whirlpool (WHR) - Whirlpool will gradually phase out its Supsa manufacturing facility in Apodaca, Mexico, by Q2 2027, transferring production to Ramos Arizpe, Mexico, and its wider network. The company expects up to USD 165mln in restructuring costs, including USD 95mln asset impairment, USD 30mln employee-related costs and USD 40mln other costs, with USD 70mln in future cash expenditures.
• American Eagle (AEO) - American Eagle named Ravi Thanawala as EVP and CFO, succeeding Mike Mathias, effective 3rd August. Mathias will become a full-time non-executive strategic adviser and support the transition through FY 2026. AEO reaffirmed its Q2 SSS growth view at mid-high single digits, and FY 2026 SSS growth view at mid-single digits.

CONSUMER STAPLES

• Dollar Tree (DLTR) - To increase share buyback by USD 2.5bln.
• Coca-Cola (KO) - Coca-Cola has invited investment banks to pitch for roles on a planned IPO of its Indian bottling unit, Hindustan Coca-Cola Beverages, targeting proceeds of about USD 1bln and a valuation of about USD 10bln, according to Bloomberg. Presentations are scheduled in London next week, with Rothschild advising on the transaction.

INDUSTRIALS

• AeroVironment (AVAV) - Awarded a USD 500mln US Army contract to procure commercial counter-unmanned aerial systems and counter small-unmanned aerial systems capabilities.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Awarded a USD 347.5mln US Army contract for development, fabrication and testing of improvements to prototype air and missile defence systems.

MATERIALS

• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) - Awarded a USD 400mln five-year Defence Logistics Agency contract for grain oriented electrical steel.
• Northern Star Resources (NESRF) - Northern Star Resources appointed Glencore’s Suresh Vadnagra as CEO, replacing Stuart Tonkin from 5th October, following pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which built a AUD 1bln stake in June and called for a strategic review and management overhaul. Elliott said the CEO change does not negate the need for broader board enhancement. Chairman Michael Chaney will also be replaced by Michael Ashforth at the November AGM.

ENERGY

• UK Energy Costs - RAC said UK diesel prices saw their biggest monthly drop on record in June, as post-Iran war oil slump unwinds inflationary shock; petrol prices also declined.
• Shell (SHEL) - Shell EVP of energy trading David Wells is retiring after four years and will be succeeded by Bob Kijkuit, currently VP of energy trading for Europe and Africa, Bloomberg reports. Kijkuit’s role will in turn be filled by Galp Energia trading chief Rodrigo Vilanova.
• Chevron (CVX) - Ugraded Chevroat Wolfe Research to 'Outperform' from 'Peer Perform' with a USD 210 PT. Chevron's spike and subsequent decline in share price since the start of the year has "masked several key changes that improve the investment case. The firm points to a long list of incremental production options secured since the start of the year extending the free cash flow growth outlook beyond 2030. The pull back in share price provides an opportunity for investors willing to re-engage in energy with line of sight that can support relative outperformance over major oil peers.

UTILITIES

• Consolidated Edison (ED) - Said equipment issues in Riverdale in the Bronx and northern Manhattan do not affect other parts of the company. It has asked customers in both areas to conserve electricity and lowered voltage by 8% to protect equipment and maintain supply during maintenance.

HEALTHCARE

• Bayer (BAYRY) - Bayer Group consolidated its US glyphosate business into Ruveon LLC, based in St. Louis, Missouri, as part of its Crop Science division’s Five-Year Framework strategy. Ruveon will be solely responsible for US glyphosate pricing, go-to-market strategies, production and logistics, and is expected to be a more nimble player in its commodity-based market. Ruveon remains a Bayer Group business.
• AstraZeneca (AZN) - AstraZeneca and Abbisko Therapeutics entered a strategic collaboration to jointly advance a Phase I/II open-label study of Abbisko’s oral PD-L1 inhibitor lumipodlin with AstraZeneca’s EGFR-TKI TAGRISSO for EGFR-mutated and PD-L1 positive locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC. The IND was cleared by China’s National Medical Products Administration on 20th May 2026.
• Biogen (BIIB) - Biogen expects Q2 2026 GAAP and adj. results to include acquired in-process R&D, upfront and milestone expense of about USD 164mln pre-tax, impacting net income per diluted share by about USD 0.95. Q3 results are expected to include similar expenses of USD 290-320mln, impacting diluted EPS by USD 1.75-1.95.
• Vertex (VRTX) - FDA approved expanded use of Casgevy for people aged 2 years and older with sickle cell disease with recurrent vaso-occlusive crises or transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia.

TRADE

• USMCA - The Trump administration decided not to renew the USMCA, instead opting for annual reviews that could result in renegotiation of major parts of the treaty. The agreement will remain in effect for another decade provided no member withdraws. USTR Greer said the administration will continue engaging with Mexico and Canada to address the agreement’s shortcomings, with US-Mexico bilateral talks already underway.
• EU-China - The EU’s bid to reset its trade relationship with China is floundering, with member states lacking the political will to take decisive action despite a trade deficit exceeding EUR 360bln, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.

MACRO

• Fed - Samantha Schwab, a senior aide to Treasury Secretary Bessent, is set to join the Fed as an adviser to Chair Kevin Warsh, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Schwab has served as principal deputy chief of staff to Bessent since April, and previously worked at the White House during Trump’s first term.
• JGBs - Overseas investors sold JPY 3.12tln of Japanese bonds in June, the largest outflow in three years, MoF data showed. The selling coincided with a weakening JPY, the BoJ’s retreat from the debt market, and rising government spending plans. Elsewhere, Japan’s 10yr bond auction saw a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.13x, the weakest since April and below the 12-month average of 3.33x, as fiscal concerns and doubts over the pace of BoJ rate hikes weighed on demand; attention turns to a 30yr auction next week as fiscal expansion worries persist.
• Swiss Inflation - Swiss CPI fell to 0.5% Y/Y in June (exp. 0.5%; prev. 0.6%), the first decline since higher energy prices accelerated following the outbreak of the Iran war; monthly prices were flat (exp. 0.1%). Petroleum products rose 15% Y/Y, but eased from May, as did air transport prices. SNB Chairman Schlegel has recently said medium-term inflation pressures remain largely unchanged.
• German Pension Reform - Chancellor Merz’s coalition reached an agreement on reforms covering Germany’s pension system, labour market and income tax, according to Bloomberg citing officials. The coalition is considering a mandatory pension contribution of at least EUR 30bln a year into a capital-market fund, modelled on Sweden’s 1990s system. A press conference was scheduled for 9am local time on Thursday.
• Gold - State Street strategists see gold reaching USD 5,000/oz in early 2027, with baseline bullion prices forecast to rally to USD 4,750-5,500/oz over the next 6-9 months; it cites rising government debt supporting gold’s monetary hedge status, resilient physical demand, and global gold fund ownership remaining below its 3-10% portfolio target.