Newsquawk Daily US Equity Opening News - HPE secures first AMD Helios order in $1.2bln deal; MRNA downgraded at Citi

DAY AHEAD:

• CENTRAL BANKS: ECB’s Schnabel speaks at a Financing Seminar (text released). Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter, hawk), Goolsbee (2027 voter, neutral), Barkin (2027 voter, neutral) and Cook (voter, neutral) are on today’s docket.
• ENERGY: DoE weekly energy inventory data are due; afterhours on Tuesday, the API weekly inventory figures reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a surprise build of +1.0mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing stocks built by +0.2mln, gasoline saw a surprise build of +3.0mln (exp. -0.5mln), while distillate stocks saw a draw of -0.3mln (exp. +0.0mln).
• EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting today include: Micron (MU), Jabil (JBL), FactSet (FDS).

TECH:

• AI Regulation - President Trump endorsed voluntary independent AI safety audits under a non-binding accord with major technology executives. Signatories included Anthropic, Nvidia (NVDA), SpaceXAI (SPCX), OpenAI, Meta (META) and Alphabet (GOOG). The agreement recommends internal safety controls, oversight teams and board-level monitoring, while suggesting some measures could eventually be codified into law or regulation.
• Apple (AAPL) - Counterpoint Research estimates that Apple will sell about 6mln iPhone Duo units in 2026. The USD 1,999 foldable launches in October. Counterpoint also said iPhone 18 Pro sales in China started strongly, rising 12% vs the iPhone 17 Pro launch, helping Apple to reach a 33% smartphone market share. Separately, Apple launched Apple Pay in India with Axis Bank; Apple plans to expand support to other banks, entering a market dominated by Google (GOOG) Pay, PhonePe and Paytm. Finally, Apple set to debut Home Hub and updated Apple TV, Homepod Mini; making a major push into the smart-home market on October 13th
• DeepSeek, Huawei - DeepSeek released open-source software developed with Huawei for programming Ascend AI chips, including TileLang, a platform positioned as an alternative to Nvidia (NVDA) CUDA, Bloomberg reports. DeepSeek said it worked with Huawei to optimise Ascend 950 performance, and plans further collaborations, while adopting domestic chips for future AI infrastructure.
• Anthropic - Anthropic’s IPO filing showed 47% of 2025 sales, or USD 2.16bln, flowed through Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet’s Google (GOOG), Reuters reports. It paid about USD 351mln in distribution fees. Two customers each generated 12% of revenue, while long-term cloud and compute commitments exceeded USD 417bln by early 2026.
• OpenAI - Seeking at least USD 30bln in new funding at a valuation of about USD 1.4tln after delaying its IPO, Bloomberg reports. The bridge round would provide additional capital as OpenAI addresses heightened AI safety concerns. Its revenue run rate topped USD 40bln in August and has grown 70% since July.
• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF), SK Hynix (SKHY) - Bloomberg notes that Samsung and SK Hynix have completed about 80% of planned KRW 55tln share buybacks, which could finish by mid-October, around a month early. The purchases have supported the KOSPI amid weak trading and foreign selling, while their end could leave the index more dependent on renewed foreign and institutional demand.
• Salesforce (CRM) - Agreed to acquire Listen Labs, an AI-powered customer research and human simulation platform. The acquisition will expand Salesforce’s customer understanding capabilities across Marketing Cloud, Service Cloud and its broader AI portfolio. The transaction is expected to close in Q4.
• MongoDB (MDB) - Board authorised an additional USD 1bln of share repurchases, bringing total programme authorisation to USD 2bln. USD 1.35bln remains available for future buybacks.
• Workday (WDAY) - Announced a 2.5% workforce reduction, primarily within its Product and Technology team, alongside select leased office space reductions, as part of reorganisations to align team structures with strategic growth priorities. Co. estimates USD 65-80mln in related charges, with USD 55-70mln recognised in Q3, and USD 10mln in Q4. Reiterated its Q3 and FY27 guidance, except GAAP operating margin, which is now expected to be about 20-21ppts lower than adj. levels in Q3, and about 19 points lower for the FY.
• Concentrix (CNXC) - Shares fell over 10% in extended trading as weaker-than-expected revenue and Q4 guidance outweighed an earnings beat, while the FY revenue guidance also missed expectations. Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.92 (exp. 2.70), Revenue 2.45bln (exp. 2.48bln). CEO said 50% of revenue now comes from business won and deployed within the past three years since the introduction of AI, with newer business contributing to margin expansion, strong free cash flow and growth in new services. Guidance: Q4 adj. EPS 2.86-2.98 (exp. 3.05), Revenue 2.41-2.46bln (exp. 2.52bln). FY26 adj. EPS 10.97-11.09 (exp. 10.97), Revenue 9.827-9.877bln (exp. 9.97bln), Adj. FCF 630-650mln.
• TomTom (TMOAY) - Expanded its collaboration with Microsoft (MSFT), bringing TomTom location intelligence to AI agents built on Microsoft Fabric and Microsoft Foundry.
• Jabil (JBL) Q4 2026 (USD): Core EPS 4.40 (exp. 4.08), Revenue 10.6bln (exp. 9.72bln). Guidance: Q1 core EPS 3.80-4.20 (exp. 3.66), Revenue 10.6-11.4bln (exp. 10.09bln). FY27 core EPS 17.55 (exp. 16.92), Revenue 44.5bln (exp. 42.93bln).
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) - Secures its first AMD (AMD) Helios order in USD 1.2bln deal with Vultr; Raises Juniper cost synergy target to USD 800 mln annual run-rate savings by FY2028. Expects FY27 Networking segment operating margin in mid-to-high 20% range. Raises FY27 Networking segment revenue growth outlook to between high-teens to low-20% range. Raises Networking segment revenue growth projection to high-teens CAGR from FY26-FY29. Expects Data Center Networking revenue to grow at low-to-high 50% CAGR through FY29

COMMUNICATIONS:

• Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) - Paramount Skydance’s high-grade bond offering to help fund its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition drew more than USD 109bln of orders, Bloomberg reports. Demand was about 3.4 times the expected deal size, vs an average of roughly four times for comparable investment-grade bond transactions this year. Separately, Paramount Skydance streaming chief Cindy Holland is leaving immediately ahead of the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, the NYT reports; her departure clears the way for HBO chairman Casey Bloys to take the top programming role across the combined company’s streaming services.
• Netflix (NFLX) - David Fincher will not renew his exclusive Netflix deal when it expires next year. He could still make future films with Netflix.
• GameStop (GME) - CEO Ryan Cohen purchased 450K shares at USD 23.48/shr on 29th September. GameStop shares rose 2% afterhours following the disclosure.
• Getty Images (GETY) - NYSE is to commence delisting proceedings against Getty Images’ Class A common stock, with trading suspended immediately. NYSE cited an “abnormally low selling price” under Section 802.01D of the Listed Company Manual. Getty Images has a right to appeal.
• Meta (META) - Reportedly avoiding billions in federal taxes, by claiming that its AI data centers are a "giant experiment" which could fail, NYT reports citing sources.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY:

• Alibaba (BABA) - AliExpress is testing a new VIP membership programme in some markets as it challenges Amazon (AMZN), The Information reports.
• Tesla (TSLA) - Arranged USD 30bln of new borrowing facilities as it increases spending on AI, robotics and manufacturing, Bloomberg reports. The package includes a USD 20bln term loan, a USD 8bln 5yr credit line, and a USD 2bln 1yr facility. Tesla plans more than USD 25bln of capex this year.
• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) - Expects Q3 2026 results to exceed guidance and reaffirms FY26 outlook.

FINANCIALS:

• Trump Accounts - A proposed Treasury rule could automatically create Trump Accounts for all eligible US children under 18, potentially adding 63mln children, Bloomberg reports. Parents would still need to claim the accounts, and it remains unclear whether automatically created accounts would receive the USD 1K federal seed contribution available for children born from 2025-2028.
• Goldman Sachs (GS) - Investors sought to redeem 2.03% from Goldman Sachs Private Credit Corp. in Q3, below its 5% quarterly threshold, Bloomberg reports. The fund will meet requests in full, after redemptions of 3.24% in Q2 and 4.99% in Q1. It also recorded about USD 400mln of gross inflows during the quarter.
• Ameriprise Financial (AMP) - Authorised an additional USD 5.5bln for share repurchases through 30th September 2028. The company also had about USD 1.1bln remaining under its April 2025 authorisation at end-June.
• Robinhood (HOOD) - Plans to add weekend trading for US equities, extended options hours and one-cancels-other orders. It will also introduce AI trading strategies, scans and custom indicators on its Legend platform, integrate Robinhood Social into its app and Legend, and launch dual-display capability for iPhone Duo next month.
• Bain Capital - Among bidders considering an acquisition of Koch-owned data-centre operator Edged in a deal that could value the company above USD 15bln, Bloomberg reports.
• UniCredit (UNCRY), Commerzbank (CRZYBY) - Germany is seeking commitments from UniCredit before further steps toward taking control of Commerzbank, Bloomberg reports; Berlin wants Commerzbank to remain listed and headquartered in Frankfurt, protect jobs, expand SME lending and retain sufficient capital and decision-making in Germany.
• FactSet Research Systems (FDS) Q4 2026 (USD): EPS 4.52 (exp. 4.35), Revenue 634.7mln (exp. 630mln). Guidance: FY27 adj. EPS 19.25-19.65 (exp. 19.72), Revenue 2.6-2.625bln (exp. 2.62bln).

ENERGY:

• OPEC - OPEC+ is likely to keep crude production quotas unchanged for November when key members meet this weekend, Bloomberg reports. Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to maintain the existing roadmap after formally unwinding 2023 cuts, while further supply restoration remains constrained by war disruptions, weaker production capacity and a separate capacity review due this week.
• Middle East Crude Exports - Middle East crude exports have rebounded to 17.5mln BPD, or 98% of pre-war levels, according to JPMorgan. Product flows remain weaker at 58%, however. Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf oil exports at 23.3mln BPD, in line with the 2025 average despite continued shipping risks.
• Iraq Crude - Oil Ministry spokesperson said Iraq’s oil exports averaged 2.65mln BPD in September, including 250K BPD shipped through Turkey’s Ceyhan port.
• Weekly Inventories - API weekly inventory figures reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a surprise build of +1.0mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing stocks built by +0.2mln, gasoline saw a surprise build of +3.0mln (exp. -0.5mln), while distillate stocks saw a draw of -0.3mln (exp. +0.0mln).
• Shell (SHEL) - Canada PM Carney confirmed that a Shell-led consortium reached a final investment decision to double LNG Canada’s production capacity to 28mln tonnes a year, in a project estimated to cost between USD 21-23bln. The expansion would make LNG Canada the second-largest facility of its kind globally, part of Carney’s strategy to reduce reliance on the US amid trade tensions. Phase 2 is expected to commence in the early 2030s.

MATERIALS:

• China Lithium - Chinese lithium carbonate futures fell about 25% in September, dropping below CNY 120K/tonne (from above CNY 160K); concerns centre on weaker demand momentum, battery overcapacity, higher inventories and macro headwinds. Some analysts still expect near-term supply deficits and inventory drawdowns to support prices, Bloomberg said.
• ArcelorMittal (MT) - Considering a BRL 5bln expansion of its Pecem steel mill in Brazil, with a final investment decision targeted by year-end, Bloomberg reports. The project would add 1.5mln tonnes of annual hot-rolled coil capacity.
• Glencore (GLNCY) - Glencore and Yancoal Australia received approval to extend their jointly owned Hunter Valley coal operations to 2045. The project allows extraction of a further 430mln tonnes of coal. Approval conditions include limits on exports, greater renewable energy use at the mines and additional carbon offsets.
• Vale (VALE) - Considering raising up to CNY 3.5bln via its first panda bond issuance in China, Bloomberg reports. The miner may market three-, five- or 10-year notes from November, following October roadshows. Vale Overseas would issue the bonds with a parent guarantee, as panda bonds offer comparatively low borrowing costs.

INDUSTRIALS:

• Boeing (BA) - Secured a US Navy contract worth more than USD 20bln for full-scale development of the sixth-generation F/A-XX Strike Fighter under the NGAD programme. The award covers multiple test aircraft, with Boeing expected to begin delivering the platform in the 2030s to augment and eventually replace F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers.
• Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) - Awarded a USD 5.1bln US Navy contract for the USS Harry S. Truman refuelling and complex overhaul. Options could raise the value to USD 5.18bln.
• RTX (RTX) - Awarded a USD 247.1mln US Navy contract for production, upgrades, conversions and overhauls of MK 15 Close-In Weapon Systems.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Received two defence awards: a USD 724mln Missile Defence contract modification under a Foreign Military Sales case for Japan’s Aegis-equipped vessels, and a USD 245mln US Navy contract modification for F/A-18E/F Infrared Search and Track Block II systems, including equipment for the Royal Australian Air Force.
• Bloom Energy (BE) - CEO KR Sridhar said potential AI infrastructure delays should not derail the company’s growth targets. Bloom plans to double manufacturing capacity to 2GW by end-2026, and projects sales of USD 3.9-4.2bln, supported by strong data centre demand, and despite recent volatility in AI-related investor sentiment.
• Alaska Air (ALK), American Airlines (AAL) - Alaska Air plans to join American Airlines’ Atlantic and Pacific joint businesses, which include British Airways, Iberia and Aer Lingus, Bloomberg reports. The carriers will seek US regulatory approval and antitrust immunity. The arrangements would allow coordination of schedules and pricing and revenue sharing, expanding American’s West Coast reach and Alaska’s access to long-haul markets.
• Jacobs (J) - To deploy data center digital twin for NVIDIA’s (NVDA) R&D facility in the US.

UTILITIES:

• PJM Interconnection - FERC accepted but suspended PJM Interconnection’s plan to accelerate new power capacity until 28th February 2027, Bloomberg reports. The regulator agreed more generation is needed for rising data centre demand, but said cost allocation, collateral and exit rules require changes. PJM plans a one-time auction to address a 6.8GW shortfall.
• Talen Energy (TLN) - Named Terry Nutt CEO effective 1st January 2027, succeeding Mac McFarland. The company also announced USD 1.5bln of accelerated share repurchases and increased its overall repurchase programme to USD 3bln through 31st December 2028, leaving USD 1.5bln available.

HEALTHCARE:

• Eli Lilly (LLY) - Said Phase 3 TRIUMPH-2 showed retatrutide delivered substantial weight loss and A1C reductions at 80 weeks in adults with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight. The 12mg dose produced 20.8% average weight loss and reduced cardiovascular risk markers. Lilly plans an FDA BLA submission in Q1 2027.
• Roche (RHHBY) - FDA accepted Roche’s NDA for fenebrutinib under priority review for RMS and PPMS. The filing is supported by the Phase III FENhance 1 and 2 studies in RMS and the Phase III FENtrepid study in PPMS.
• Cigna (CI) - Backs FY26 adj. EPS view 'at least' USD 30.45 (exp. 30.51) and consolidated adj. revenues about USD 280bln (exp. 286.76bln); medical care ratio seen between 83.7-84.7%; announces USD 3bln multi-year modernization and productivity initiative.

CONSUMER STAPLES

• Coca-Cola (KO) - Said to plan to file for an IPO of its India unit in December and is seeking a USD 10bln valuation.
• Hormel Foods (HRL) - Agreed to buy Brakebush for USD 1.055bln in cash.
• Cal Maine Foods (CALM) Q1 2026 (USD): EPS -1.26 (exp. -0.76), Revenue 539.61mln (exp. 561.56mln).
• Conagra Brands (CAG) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.41 (exp. 0.28), Revenue 2.6bln (exp. 2.59bln). Guidance: FY adj. EPS 1.40-1.50 (exp. 1.44). Commentary: Expects inflation in Q2 to be higher than Q1 due to higher logistic and fuel costs; which they expect ot persist for the FY.

TRADE:

• US-Canada - Canadian Energy Minister Hodgson said Canada has contingency plans for diesel supply disruptions, including a possible US export ban. He said Canada is a net diesel exporter, and could manage such a scenario.
• China-EU - China warned it would retaliate if the EU adopts broad tariffs on Chinese goods, saying such measures could undermine ongoing trade talks. Beijing criticised proposals for an EU tool modelled on US Section 301, and said discriminatory restrictions would damage mutual trust, disrupt consultations and threaten China-EU trade and supply-chain stability.
• China-Brazil - Brazilian beef exports to China will face an additional 55% tariff from 1st October after filling Beijing’s 1.1mln tonne annual quota, Bloomberg reports. Brazil supplied roughly half of China’s 2.8mln tonnes of beef imports in 2025.

MACRO:

• Fedspeak - Fed’s Williams suggested the Fed could wait until December before raising rates again, saying there is “no need for urgency” following September’s policy action, though another increase “late this year” might be appropriate. The probability of an October rate hike fell to near 50% from around 70% following his remarks, according CME data.
• China PMI - China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September (exp. 50.1), returning to expansion for the first time in three months, with the production subindex hitting a 2026 high of 51.7. The non-manufacturing PMI surprised at 50.2 (exp. 49.2). Price subindices also rose amid higher tech and energy costs. ING said the data points to a modest September activity uptick, aided by PBoC easing measures including a 25bps pledged supplementary lending rate cut and a mortgage subsidy for first-time homebuyers.
• Japan - Japan’s 2yr bond auction drew stronger demand than the 12-month average, with bid-to-cover rising to 3.89x (vs prev. 2.97x). OIS imply about a 23% chance of an October BoJ hike, with a 25bps hike almost fully priced by December.
• Australia CPI - Australian monthly CPI rose 0.4% in August (exp. 0.5%; prev. 1%), while annual inflation accelerated to 4.0% from 3.5%. The trimmed mean held at 3.6% Y/Y (exp. 3.6%; prev. 3.6%). Westpac said softer retail demand drove discounting in some durable goods, though strength elsewhere leaves near-term upside risk to inflation estimates. It retained Q3 forecasts of 1.3% Q/Q for CPI, and 0.9% Q/Q for trimmed-mean, and expects trimmed-mean inflation to remain above target through year-end, supporting an RBA rate rise in November.