Daily US Equity Opening News - MP and USAR added to China export controls; AAPL faces device price rises amid memory crunch

DAY AHEAD:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES unch, NQ +0.3%, YM +0.2%, RUT +0.3%
BROKER MOVES: CRDO upgraded at Evercore ISI; Roth Capital upgrades group of E&P names. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: GETY, AAPL, ASML, CRH, MP/USAR, RGNX, APGE, GOOGL. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: CVX, PFE. For the full list, click here.
EVENTS: High-level US-Iran talks in Switzerland concluded, but technical negotiations will continue through the week in Switzerland as sides agreed to a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal. Israel and Lebanon will begin a fifth round of direct negotiations today, focusing on Israel’s troop presence in southern Lebanon.
CENTRAL BANKS: Fed’s Waller (voter, dovish) gives opening remarks. ECB’s Lagarde (neutral) is scheduled to speak several times today, including at an ECON Hearing (text release expected).
WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include US PCE, Canadian CPI, EZ Flash PMI, Tokyo CPI, and a Banxico policy announcement. Notable US corporates reporting this week include: Micron (MU), FedEx (FDX), Carnival (CCL), Darden (DRI), Paychex (PAYX), McCormick (MKC), Jefferies (JEF).
Click here for Newsquawk’s week ahead preview.
Click here for Newsquawk’s weekly US earnings estimates.

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS

US-Iran - The first round of high-level US-Iran talks in Burgenstock, Switzerland concluded, with mediators Qatar and Pakistan announcing the two sides agreed to a roadmap toward a final deal within 60 days, alongside a mechanism to end fighting in Lebanon and a communications line for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi said Iran had secured waivers for oil exports, the release of frozen assets and a reconstruction plan. The talks opened tensely after Iran said it had again closed the Strait and President Trump threatened renewed strikes. Fighting between Hezbollah and Israeli forces had escalated despite a Friday ceasefire, and Iran announced Saturday it had shut the Strait of Hormuz, though tracking data shows vessels continuing to pass through. Iranian media reported a halt to talks after President Trump threatened renewed strikes if Hezbollah continues attacking Israel from Lebanon.
Hormuz Flows - Bloomberg reported that around 6mln bbls of Iranian crude aboard three US-sanctioned supertankers (the Elva, Virgo and Vigor) entered the Strait of Hormuz early Monday, the highest such flow since the war began, according to ship-tracking data; the movements follow the US lifting a blockade last week on ships visiting Iranian ports, and add to roughly 20mln bbls recently exported from Chabahar. Four Qatar-linked empty LNG tankers also signalled Hormuz crossings Monday, which would be the most in a single day since the war started in late February. "Confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone rose sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 total transits recorded", Kpler's Bakr reports
Russia-Ukraine - Ukraine targeted the Tyumen oil refinery in Russia’s Ural region, approximately 2,000 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, extending its campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. Tyumen region governor Moor said preliminary information indicated the plant, which processes around 151k BPD, was undamaged and employees had been evacuated. Russia’s crude-processing rates have fallen to a two-decade low in June, according to EA Analytics estimates, with the Moscow refinery hit twice last week.
Swiss Neutrality - An early Tamedia poll shows Swiss voters set to reject a proposal enshrining permanent neutrality in the constitution, with just 34% backing the measure ahead of a 27th September referendum and 54% likely to vote against. The initiative, pushed by the Swiss People’s Party, would bar economic measures against countries at war and could otherwise affect sanctions against Russia. Both parliament and the government oppose the plan, while support remains concentrated among SVP voters.
Brazil Hack - Brazil is investigating a suspected hacking incident in which messages containing the word “misanthropy” were sent to millions of Brazilians’ mobile phones via the civil defence alert system. The message was issued as an “Extreme Alert,” normally used for extreme weather warnings. National Secretary of Protection and Civil Defence Wolnei Wolff said ten alerts were tracked across various Brazilian states; the total number of phones affected was not disclosed.

TECH

Apple (AAPL) - Apple faces unavoidable device price increases as AI hyperscalers and Nvidia (NVDA) absorb DRAM and NAND supply, weakening Apple’s usual procurement leverage, according to a WSJ tech column. WSJ estimates the iPhone 18 Pro base model could rise by USD 200 or more to USD 1,299, with memory-chip costs pressuring consumer-tech margins. Microsoft’s (MSFT) latest Surface Pro laptops start at USD 1,599, USD 600 more than the previous generation, while Nintendo (NTDOY) lifted the price of its Switch 2 console by USD 50 to USD 499, apologising for the impact on customers. The increases reflect a broader memory-chip price crisis affecting smartphones, game consoles and laptops.
AI, Microsoft (MSFT) - Microsoft CEO Nadella told the WSJ that the AI boom should shift from control by frontier model builders towards cheaper models, user control and wider benefits. He criticised job-loss messaging and the concentration of value.
TSMC (TSM) - TSMC is accelerating its CoPoS rollout, replacing traditional round wafers with larger rectangular glass panels to support packaging demand for AI GPUs and HPC chips over the coming years, Digitimes reports. Supply chain sources said the first wave of demo equipment has entered validation. Elsewhere, the publication reports that Taiwanese memory chip designers are set for a 245% revenue jump in 2026 as AI storage demand and rising memory prices shift focus from consumer electronics to higher-value data centre and AI applications.
Anthropic - President Trump told Axios he viewed Anthropic as a national security threat as recently as a week ago, though he said relations have since improved following a meeting with CEO Dario Amodei at the G7 summit. The Commerce Department imposed export controls, and the Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk, after a report from Amazon detailing a vulnerability alarmed the administration. Trump did not rule out invoking the Defence Production Act powers but said he does not want to shut Anthropic down, citing the US lead over China on AI.
Anthropic - Some early Project Glasswing members, including Dragos and Cisco Systems (CSCO), have retained access to Anthropic’s Mythos Preview model despite a US government order that led to the shutdown of Fable 5 and Mythos 5 access for foreign nationals, Bloomberg reports.
Anthropic, Alphabet (GOOG) - John Jumper, Google DeepMind vice-president and 2024 Nobel Prize in chemistry winner, is leaving to join Anthropic. Jumper was a key member of Google’s AI coding development team.
Oracle (ORCL) - Expanded Oracle AI Database@AWS to the AWS Europe (Spain) Region, enabling customers to run Oracle database services on OCI infrastructure within AWS. The rollout targets modernisation of Oracle Exadata workloads with zero-ETL integration for analytics, machine learning, and generative AI use cases.
Intel (INTC) - Intel appointed Seok-Hee Lee as executive vice-president of Intel Foundry. Lee will lead advanced packaging, system integration, back-end technology development and back-end manufacturing. He joins from SK On, where he was president and CEO, and previously served as president and CEO of SK Hynix.
ASML Holdings (ASML) - ASML has denied shipping an extreme ultraviolet lithography machine, or any related component, to China, after a report suggested that US Commerce Secretary Lutnick raised concerns one of the tools may have reached the country in violation of export restrictions, Reuters reports. ASML said it has “consistently adjusted its business” to comply with export control rules. The Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs said semiconductor equipment exports require licences under the European Dual-Use Regulation and national measures, which it enforces strictly.
Uber (UBER) - Lime plans to name ride-hailing firm Uber as an anchor investor in its US IPO, The Information reported. According to a source, Uber is expected to invest a "meaningful" amount in the deal and be named as an anchor investor on the cover of an updated IPO prospectus that Lime plans to file on Monday
SoftBank (SFTBY) - SoftBank-backed Chinese robotics company Coowa is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO, WSJ reports citing sources. Its valuation exceeded USD 3bln after raising more than USD 600mln.
Jabil (JBL) - Jabil opened a new factory in Pune, India, expanding its India footprint from 500,000 square feet to 1.2mln square feet over the past year. The company said regional headcount rose from 5,000 to almost 11,000 employees, strengthening manufacturing and engineering capabilities.
Credo (CRDO) - Evercore ISI initiated coverage of Credo Technology with an 'Outperform' rating and USD 325 PT. The firm senses that Credo is viewed as a copper-based AI-connectivity play, but believes the company will be increasingly viewed as a broad copper plus optical AI-connectivity play as it executes its optical roadmap. Near-term, the firm models 100% and 60% growth for its AEC solutions in calendar year 2026 and 2027, respectively, and longer term it models USD 13-plus in 2028 EPS, 40% higher than Street estimates.
Ambiq Micro (AMBQ) - Announced the commencement of an underwritten public offering of 1.8mln shares of common stock, with an additional 30-day underwriters’ option for up to 270K shares, subject to market and other conditions.

COMMUNICATIONS

Alphabet (GOOG) - WSJ writes that Google is replicating Nvidia’s (NVDA) strategy of using financial guarantees and circular financing to win AI chip customers for its TPUs, providing a USD 3.2bln guarantee for the Lake Mariner data centre, where computing power will be rented to Anthropic. Google also struck a USD 5bln deal with Blackstone (BX) to launch a cloud-services company competing with Nvidia-backed CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS), and plans to raise USD 85bln in equity to fund AI infrastructure. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has previously downplayed Google’s competitive threat.
Netflix (NFLX) - Netflix is under contract to buy Radford Studio Centre in Los Angeles for close to USD 400mln, after lenders led by Goldman Sachs repossessed the property from Hackman Capital Partners, which had defaulted on USD 1.1bln of bondholder debt, Bloomberg reports. The sale will erase close to two-thirds of that debt and is expected to close in Q3. The report adds that Netflix is considering consolidating its real estate footprint, having leased buildings from Hudson Pacific Properties whose leases expire in 2031.
Meta Platforms (META) - Meta has secured agreements to buy AI computing capacity from data centre developer Crusoe at two sites in Texas and Missouri, according to Bloomberg. The deals would provide Meta with roughly 1.6 gigawatts of combined capacity. Spending and delivery timing were not disclosed.
Disney (DIS) - Disney’s (DIS) “Toy Story 5” opened at an estimated USD 312mln globally (exp. USD 270-290mln) and USD 160mln domestically (exp. USD 150-175mln). WSJ also reports that Hollywood’s domestic box office has reached an estimated USD 4.46bln this year, the highest since 2019.
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Said UFC Freedom 250 averaged 7mln US viewers and reached 17mln viewers across the US and Latin America, making it the most-watched event in Paramount+ history. The UFC will announce viewership numbers outside the U.S. and Latin America next week, Paramount said.
AT&T (T) - The California Public Utilities Commission has asked a US court and the FCC to reject AT&T’s request to stop offering traditional copper wire phone service to new customers, arguing the company is trying to avoid its “carrier of last resort” obligations to maintain basic service.
Getty Images (GETY), OpenAI - OpenAI announced a display agreement under which Getty Images’ licensed content libraries will appear within ChatGPT search and discovery experiences, aimed at improving visual responses and enhancing AI-powered search with licensed imagery.
Tencent (TCEHY) - Tencent begun testing a new AI assistant called Xiaowei for its super app WeChat, as part of efforts to keep pace with rivals in the country’s AI race. The service has been made available to a small number of users and can be accessed via text or voice.

FINANCIALS

Robinhood (HOOD) - Announced a USD 2.0bln convertible senior notes offering due 2029, with an option for purchasers to buy an additional USD 200mln. The company expects to use about USD 300mln of the proceeds for share repurchases, with the remainder earmarked for general corporate purposes, including growth investments and potential acquisitions.
Charles Schwab (SCHW), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) - Charles Schwab is working with Cboe Global Markets to launch all-or-nothing options contracts letting customers wager on whether the S&P 500 closes above or below a target price, according to sources cited by the WSJ. The contracts will be available to customers in the coming months, alongside a related Cboe feature called “the plus zone” offering partial payouts for near-miss predictions. Schwab plans to limit contracts to verifiable financial outcomes, excluding events such as sports or awards shows.
Chubb Limited (CB) - Chubb CEO said security for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile, with mines the greatest uncertainty. He said US efforts to open broader channels should gradually increase vessel transit.
Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) - Brookfield is leading bidding to acquire a controlling stake in Patrick Drahi’s French fibre optic company XpFibre, Bloomberg reports. Altice France owns 50.01% of XpFibre, while DigitalBridge, KKR and Vauban Infrastructure Partners were shortlisted. Omers Infrastructure, Allianz Capital Partners and AXA IM Alts hold the rest.
KKR (KKR) - German satellite maker OHB is launching a share sale with KKR to increase its free float and attract new investors. KKR will reduce its stake to around 20% from 28.6% and could net up to EUR 368mln, exceeding its original investment in the company in 2023.
Baldwin Group (BWIN) - Exploring a take-private transaction, Insurance Insider reported. JPMorgan upgraded Baldwin Group to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' with a USD 28 PT (prev. 25) on the update. The firm thinks a take-private transaction is a "credible enough outcome" for Baldwin. Such a deal could "crystallise value in the stock by allowing a new owner to capitalize improving fundamentals over the next several years".

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Adobe (ADBE) - Expects AI traffic to US retail sites during Amazon (AMZN) Prime Day event to rise by 103% vs June last year; US retailers seen driving USD 26.3bln online spend from June 23-26th, +9% Y/Y for Prime Day event. US retailer discounts during Prime day seen between 12-23%, up 2% Y/Y. Buy Now Pay Later seen driving USD 2.04bln in spending during Prime Day Event, +5% Y/Y.
Tesla (TSLA) - A Tesla vehicle reportedly operating in an automated driver-assistance mode crashed into a house in Texas, killing a woman inside, according to the Harris County Sheriff's Office.
Nike (NKE) - Nike said director John Rogers, Jr., who has served on its board since 2018, will retire and not stand for re-election at the September 2026 AGM. His retirement will be effective after the meeting, after which he will serve as a strategic adviser.
Starbucks (SBUX) - Starbucks cut corporate jobs in London and Hong Kong as it gives third-party licensees more latitude to run stores outside North America, Bloomberg reports. The company cut about 60 positions in Hong Kong, around 20% of staff, and eliminated about 120 positions in London.
BYD (BYDDY) - BYD rejected allegations that it breached environmental rules during construction of its first EU plant in Hungary, Bloomberg reports. Hungarian police have been investigating claims that BYD moved toxic soil from the construction site to an outside location. BYD said car assembly in Hungary would start in Q4, and that BYD is scouting sites for a second European facility, having met Serbian President Vucic about potential opportunities there.
Porsche AG (DRPRY) - Porsche AG chief said it is finalising talks on additional cost cuts as it prepares for reduced vehicle production, FAZ reports. The Volkswagen (VWAGY)-owned manufacturer expects to reach an agreement with worker representatives by the factory's summer break in July.
Visteon Corp (VC) - Upgraded at JPMorgan to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' with a USD 165 (prev. 108). The company is "uniquely positioned to drive significant outgrowth" in the automotive space and related verticals, with lower execution risk relative to peers. VC shares were also upgraded at Barclays to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' with a USD 145 PT (prev. 115). The firm sees an opportunity for investor focus to shift toward an inflexion in Visteon's growth trajectory, "reinvigorating excitement for the stock's outlook and re-rating to a higher multiple."
Kalshi - Kalshi is generating more than USD 2bln in annualised revenue, up about threefold from November, The Information reports. Trading on NBA and World Cup games drove a major increase in platform volume.
EssilorLuxottica (ESLOY) - Heir to the Ray-Ban empire, Leonardo Maria Del Vecchio, has publicly challenged his family’s holding company Delfin Sarl to back his EUR 10bln buyout of two siblings ahead of a 30th June shareholder meeting. In an open letter, he accused Delfin’s board of failing to clearly explain its shifting position on the deal, which would make him the largest shareholder of the Luxembourg-based investment vehicle. Delfin’s board is reportedly evaluating an alternative buyback of the stakes being sold by Del Vecchio’s siblings.

ENERGY

Chevron (CVX): Announced that Energy Forge One, a wholly owned subsidiary, signed an agreement via Energy Forge One to develop Project Kilby, a co-located power facility in West Texas supplying dedicated electricity to a Microsoft data center under a 20-year PPA. The project targets about 2.67 GW of phased capacity, with first power expected in 2028 and FID targeted by end of 2026. A majority of the generation will come from large GE Vernova (GEV) turbines and associated electrical infrastructure, with additional capacity provided by Solar Turbines, a wholly owned subsidiary of Caterpillar (CAT).
Crude Trading - Crude futures have slumped following a US-Iran peace deal, reviving niche options positions that had bet on an oil glut, Bloomberg notes. The spread between WTI calendar contracts has narrowed back below USD 1, after briefly exceeding USD 5 in late April amid supply concerns. About 100mln barrels of September Brent USD 70/69 put spreads traded on Wednesday, alongside 41mln barrels of USD 71/70 spreads on Friday. Positioning data showed that money managers’ net-long position in Brent fell to a six-month low, down almost three-quarters since the end of March.
E&P - Roth Capital upgraded a group of exploration and production companies to Buy from Neutral, arguing that oil prices are approaching a near-term bottom and that expectations for an Iran ceasefire remain uncertain. Roth believes the recent 15%-25% pullback in many oil-focused E&P stocks from their year-to-date highs has created more attractive entry points. The firm expects lasting damage to key Middle East oil infrastructure and believes the market has largely priced in the risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Roth also sees near-term crude prices stabilising around USD 75/bbl, which should support improved sentiment across the sector. APA Corp. (APA) PT raised to USD 38 (prev. 37), ConocoPhillips (COP) PT raised to USD 130 (prev. 124), Diamondback Energy (FANG) PT raised to USD 212 (prev. 205), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) PT unchanged at USD 31, Matador Resources (MTDR) PT unchanged at USD 65, Permian Resources (PR) PT raised to USD 23 (prev. 21), SM Energy (SM) PT raised to USD 32 (prev. 30).
Iraqi Crude - Basra Oil Co. asked operators of five major oil fields -- Rumaila, West Qurna-1, West Qurna-2, Zubair and Artawi -- to lift output to pre-war levels, targeting more than 3mln barrels a day, following a US-Iran deal aimed at fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz Bloomberg reports. Oil Ministry spokesman said the increase would be gradual, depending on operational conditions and tanker availability. Southern Iraq’s output has reportedly already climbed to 1.5mln barrels a day in recent days.
China Oil Imports - Analysts cited by Bloomberg say Chinese oil imports may not fully recover from the Iran war, as the conflict accelerated a shift from gasoline and diesel. Rystad estimated 200K-600K BPD of lost transport demand may not return this year, while Energy Aspects put permanent losses at about 300K.
QatarEnergy - QatarEnergy said an explosion and fire hit the Barzan local gas supply facility during startup at Ras Laffan. Qatar’s interior ministry said 54 people were injured and 18 were missing. The Barzan plant supplies domestic industries and power generation, while the impact on LNG output was unclear, Bloomberg said.

HEALTHCARE

Eli Lilly (LLY) - China’s National Medical Products Administration approved Eli Lilly Nederland BV’s Inluriyo.
Weight-Loss Drugs, Snack Makers - A PricewaterhouseCoopers survey of more than 2,300 GLP-1 users in the UK found around 70% were spending less on snacks and confectionery, and 60% were buying fewer sugary drinks, with 54% purchasing more high-protein options and 40% spending more on vitamins and supplements. PwC estimates the number of UK GLP-1 users could rise from about 3mln to around 7mln by 2027 as cheaper generics and pill formats become available, following the UK’s approval of Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Wegovy pill.
Moderna (MRNA) - Moderna said the FDA’s VRBPAC voted 9-0 that benefits of mRNA-1010 outweigh risks for preventing influenza in adults aged 50-64 and those aged 65 and older. The FDA will consider the non-binding recommendations during its review. mRNA-1010 has a US FDA PDUFA goal date of 5th August 2026.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Upgraded at Nordea to 'Buy' from 'Hold'. The firm believes the near-term news flow "looks positively skewed" and sees potential for Novo's Wegovy pill sales to top estimates.
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) - Teva submitted an NDA to the FDA for ecopipam, a first-in-class investigational therapy for paediatric Tourette syndrome. The submission is supported by positive Phase 3 data published in JAMA Neurology, showing ecopipam significantly delayed time to relapse versus placebo in paediatric patients and was generally well tolerated.
Merck (MRK) - Said the study met its primary endpoint of clinical remission according to the Modified Mayo Score at week 12, as well as key secondary endpoints.
Align Technology (ALGN) - Align Technology said C. Raymond Larkin, Jr. will retire as Chairman on 1st July after more than 20 years on the board. He will remain a director and Nominating and Governance Committee member through 31st December. Kevin Conroy will succeed him as Chairman on 1st July.
Incyte Biosciences (INCY) - Japan approved Minjuvi in combination with lenalidomide for adults with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. INCY said this is Minjuvi’s second regulatory approval in Japan, after a previous approval in combination with rituximab and lenalidomide for relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma.
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) - Reported Week 52 Phase 3 VELA-1/VELA-2 results showing continued improvement with SLK, including 67.2% HiSCR75, 33.1% HiSCR100, and 26.0% IHS4-100 response rates, with the company highlighting results above prior Phase 3 hidradenitis suppurativa programs.
AbbVie (ABBV) - Announced a definitive agreement to acquire Apogee (APGE) for USD 135.11/shr in cash, valuing the company at ~USD 10.9bln. AbbVie said the deal expands its immunology pipeline and respiratory disease presence, with closing expected in Q3 2026.
Regeneron: - The FDA and EMA accepted regulatory applications for cemdisiran in anti-AChR positive generalized myasthenia gravis. The FDA granted Priority Review with a decision expected in November 2026, while an EU decision is anticipated in 2H 2027.
Regenxbio (RGNX) - Said the FDA has agreed to reverse its rejection of the company's gene therapy Navsunli, and Regenxbio plans to refile its approval application in Q3.
Definium Therapeutics (DFTX) - Reported positive Phase 3 Emerge results, with DT120 ODT meeting its primary endpoint and showing a statistically significant improvement in MADRS score versus placebo at Week 6, with effects observed as early as Week 1 and maintained through Week 12.
MapLight Therapeutics (MPLT) - Reported that the Phase 2 IRIS study of ML-004 in autism spectrum disorder failed to meet its primary endpoint on social communication. However, the company reported clinically meaningful improvements in irritability versus placebo in a prespecified subgroup of adolescents with moderate or greater baseline irritability.

INDUSTRIALS

SpaceX (SPCX) - Announced an inaugural offering of senior unsecured notes; to use proceeds to repay bridge loan and for general corporate purposes, according to a SEC filing. Reported cash and cash equivalents of USD 100.8bln as of June 19th, 2026. Notes offered to qualified institutional buyers of non-US persons.
Diana Shipping (DSX), Genco (GNK) - Diana Shipping reaffirmed its offer to acquire Genco for USD 27.34/shr, comprising USD 24.80 in cash plus one Diana share valued at USD 2.54. Diana said the revised offer represents a 53% premium to Genco’s undisturbed share price and a 6% premium to net asset value.
Boeing (BA) - Boeing received a USD 880mln US Navy contract for procurement, modernisation and sustainment of P-8A Poseidon aircrew and maintenance training systems.
General Dynamics (GD) - General Dynamics Land Systems received a USD 43.5mln US Army contract modification supporting Abrams M1A2 System Enhancement Package Version Three tank production.
Huntington Ingalls (HII) - Huntington received a USD 417.7mln US Navy contract to provide aircraft carrier and amphibious ships elevator support unit maintenance and repair.
EasyJet (ESYJY) - Private investment firm Castlelake made public a GBP 4.74bln takeover proposal for easyJet, saying shareholders should assess the offer ahead of a June 26 deadline. easyJet rejected the bid as “opportunistic” and not in shareholders’ best interests.

MATERIALS

MP Materials (MP), USA Rare Earth (USAR) - China has added MP Materials and USA Rare Earth to its export control list, citing national security, in response to the Pentagon’s decision this month to designate several major Chinese companies as supporting the Chinese military. The order bars the two companies from accessing dual-use items and extends restrictions globally to anyone transferring Chinese-origin dual-use goods to them.
CRH (CRH) - CRH agreed to acquire Arcosa for USD 150/shr in cash, valuing the company at an enterprise value of ~USD 8.5bln. The deal includes expected USD 175mln of annual cost synergies by year three, is expected to be accretive within 12 months of closing, and is targeted to close in Q1 2027.
Vale - Vale’s board voted against shareholder Previ’s proposal to remove Daniel Andre Stieler as chairman, though the proposal will still proceed to a shareholder vote scheduled for 22nd July, according to Bloomberg. Previ, which holds a 7% stake, is backing Manuel Lino Oliveira as Chair, while the board majority supports Marcelo Gasparino as an alternative.

CONSUMER STAPLES

Coca-Cola (KO) - Coca-Cola’s tax dispute with the IRS, with more than USD 20bln at stake, reaches the 11th US Circuit Court of Appeals in Miami on 25th June. The case centres on whether Coca-Cola’s “10-50-50” method for allocating profits to foreign supply points improperly shifted earnings overseas; the IRS won the first round at Tax Court in 2020, after which Coca-Cola paid USD 6bln in taxes and interest. A full loss could cost Coca-Cola a further USD 14bln for 2010-2025 plus a 3.8ppt rise in its effective tax rate, WSJ says.
Danone (DANOY) - Danone is acquiring Australian dairy and drinks producer Made Group from TPG Capital in a deal worth around AUD 2bln, as part of its expansion into high-protein nutrition, according to AFR. Danone is also acquiring the remaining 49% stake in its fresh dairy joint venture with Saputo Dairy Australia, with both transactions expected to be completed in H2.

UTILITIES

Fervo Energy (FRVO) - Partnered with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to develop EGS-Twin, an AI-powered digital twin platform for enhanced geothermal systems. The platform will use Fervo field data and Nvidia AI infrastructure, with implementation targeted by 2029.

MACRO

Fed’s Bowman - Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman (voter) spoke at a private dinner hosted by Bank of America (BAC) in New York hours after the FOMC concluded its policy meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, during the Fed’s blackout period when officials are restricted from discussing monetary policy, according to the WSJ. Bowman said she did not breach FOMC rules, stating she did not share her views on policy.
US Midterms - Democrats are positioning corruption alongside the cost of living as a central midterm campaign issue, citing President Trump’s stock trades, pardons for financial-crime convicts, and a USD 400mln Boeing (BA) 747-8 gift from Qatar to serve as Air Force One. Navigator Research found government corruption running roughly even with inflation as a top voter concern across 67 battleground districts. A Brennan Institute poll found 68% of voters viewed Trump as corrupt, though 85% felt the same about Congress generally. Republicans, including Senator Bill Cassidy, have also distanced themselves from a proposed USD 1.8bln fund benefiting Trump allies.
German Pensions - Germany’s ruling coalition is preparing to back pension reforms including a market-based savings component, tighter early-retirement rules and a gradual rise in the retirement age, Bloomberg reports. Proposals include a supplementary contribution equal to 2% of gross wages invested through a public fund and abolishing a 45-year contribution early-retirement route.
Schuldschein Debt - Germany’s Schuldschein debt market, traditionally seen as a safe haven for lenders, is facing growing strain as Mittelstand companies struggle under higher energy costs and competition, Bloomberg reports. The instrument requires unanimous creditor agreement for any modification, meaning holdouts can block deals; at least EUR 5bln has become entangled in distressed situations over the past three years, against roughly EUR 20bln issued annually. Companies including BayWa, Varta, Branicks Group and Gerresheimer have faced restructuring difficulties, with Schuldschein holders sometimes left worse off than bank lenders.
UK Jobs Data - The UK’s ONS has admitted to a fresh error affecting jobs data quality after accidentally allocating interviewers to the wrong survey, missing roughly 1,200 telephone interviews between 3rd May and mid-June, FT reports. ONS director-general for economic statistics James Benford said this would mean a level of reduced quality for July’s labour market report, with a smaller effect on some later releases, as missing data points are replaced with estimated values. Benford said this would likely dampen apparent changes in the data, making it harder for policymakers to assess whether unemployment is rising or falling.
EU Capital Markets - Ireland Taoiseach Martin believes a deal to deepen EU capital markets can be secured by year-end, FT reports. The savings and investment union aims to integrate the EU’s 27 national capital markets and mobilise savings into productive investments. Martin said there was about 80% agreement on a plan led by the EU’s six largest economies.

TRADE

US-India - India commerce minister Goyal said India will not implement its trade agreement with the US until it secures a competitive tariff advantage over rival nations, ANI reports. While the framework for the pact has been finalised, Goyal said the pending issue is ensuring India’s duties are lower than those facing competing countries. The comments highlight unresolved issues between the two sides despite leaders’ expressed optimism.
China Rare Earths - China has added MP Materials (MP) and USA Rare Earth (USAR) to its export control list, citing national security, in response to the Pentagon’s decision this month to designate several major Chinese companies as supporting the Chinese military. The order bars the two companies from accessing dual-use items and extends restrictions globally to anyone transferring Chinese-origin dual-use goods to them. Eight other US firms, including drone, robotics and aerospace makers, were also added. Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang warned that the risk of global supply chain fragmentation is growing amid rising unilateralism and protectionism. Ding defended China’s competitiveness as stemming from its complete industrial chains and large market.
China-EU - German Chancellor Merz called for international FX talks to address the EU’s trade deficit with China. Merz said the EU competes with countries whose currencies are up to 30% undervalued, referenced the 1985 Plaza Accord and said he raised the issue at the G7, where it received strong US support. Elsewhere, Merz said he expects the US to honour trade commitments with Europe after the Trump administration opened a tariff investigation into Germany’s pharmaceutical pricing; Merz said drug reimbursement is a national matter.
China-Japan - China’s exports of some critical minerals to Japan remained low in May, Bloomberg reports. Chinese customs data showed exports of some tungsten types and rare-earth dysprosium and terbium stayed at zero, while other rare-earth categories were unusually low.
Canada - Canada has imposed a temporary 10% import tariff on canned vegetables to protect domestic growers and processors, effective from 19th June for up to 200 days. The measure follows a probe into trade diversion and excludes the US, Mexico, Israel, Chile and developing countries to comply with international trade obligations.
South Korea Exports - South Korea’s exports adjusted for working-day differences rose +49.7% Y/Y in the first 20 days of June, driven by chip exports (+188.4%) and computer-related products (+293.3%). The trade surplus reached USD 17.5bln. Exports to China rose almost 87%, while shipments to the US rose nearly 54%.