Daily US Equity Opening News - NFLX falls on soft guide; AA lowers FY26 alumina guidance; ALV profit miss

DAY AHEAD:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -1.0%, NQ -1.9%, YM -0.7%, RUT -0.8%
BROKER MOVES: AAPL upgraded at HSBC; PPG upgraded at BofA. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: SMH, MAGS, DRAM, AA, SPCX, ISRG, ALV, SFNC. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: For the full list, click here.
DATA: In North America, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for July is seen at 51.0 (prev. 49.5), current conditions at 48.7 (prev. 48.0) and expectations at 51.7 (prev. 50.7), while the 1-year inflation gauge is seen at 4.3% (prev. 4.6%) and the 5-year at 3.1% (prev. 3.3%). After today’s US data releases, the Atlanta Fed will update its GDPNow Q2 estimate (currently tracking growth of 1.7%).
ENERGY: Baker Hughes reports weekly rig count data (prev. oil 445, total 581).
OPTION EXPIRIES: FTSE 100, Euro Stoxx 50, DAX 40, CAC 40, E-mini S&P, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Jul 2026 contracts.
CREDIT RATINGS: Potential reviews are due today from: Scope on Ireland and Sweden; DBRS on the EFSF and ESM; Moody’s on Latvia and Spain; Fitch on Finland and Turkey.

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS

US-Iran - CENTCOM said forces struck Iran for a sixth consecutive night, targeting Iranshahr airport, Bandar Abbas railway station, five southern bridges and bases in Bushehr. Marines also inspected the M/T Wen Yao in the Gulf of Oman on 16th July. US President Trump said we will soon see the fruits of labour in Iran.
US-Iran - Iran targeted US radars in Kuwait with drones, while explosions were reported at US military sites in Bahrain, Qatar and Erbil. The IRGC claimed an attack on a US command centre at Al-Tanf in Syria and warned that no oil or gas would pass through the Strait of Hormuz while US strikes continue. Reports have also cited marine traffic data showing only three ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours.
US-Iran - Iranian adviser Mokhbar warned that attacks on Iran’s infrastructure could destroy the regional energy supply chain. An armed forces spokesperson said Iran would prevent US interference in the Strait of Hormuz, declared only Iran-designated routes safe, and warned regional infrastructure would become legitimate targets if Iran’s infrastructure is struck. Separately, reports suggest that Iran told allies, including Hezbollah, that the waiting phase is nearing an end, and has ordered preparations for military scenarios; Iran described Hezbollah as its greatest strategic asset and said it would participate in any future conflict if pressure on Iran reaches unprecedented levels.
US-Iraq - The Islamic Resistance of Iraq offered a USD 10mln bounty for US President Trump.

MACRO

Fedspeak - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said the Fed may need to reconsider its policy stance if inflation does not start cooling soon, though he described current policy as “well positioned” and stopped short of calling for an immediate hike. Jefferson flagged that the Middle East conflict and higher fuel prices risk entrenching inflation and unanchoring expectations, and said AI could prove either inflationary or disinflationary depending on whether productivity gains or demand effects materialise first.

COMMUNICATIONS

Netflix (NFLX) - Shares fell over 10% in extended US trading as investors were disappointed by its earnings forecast, and scrutiny over engagement updates overshadowed broadly in-line results and continued advertising growth. Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 0.80 (exp. 0.79), Revenue +13% Y/Y at 12.6bln (exp. 12.58bln), driven by membership growth, pricing and higher advertising revenue, while net income increased to 3.40bln (vs 3.13bln Y/Y). Netflix said engagement remains healthy, with more than 97bln hours of content watched in H1, although it will shift its “What We Watched” report to an annual publication in Q1 from 2027, to keep earnings focused on financial metrics. Management said live events remain a top draw and continue to support advertising demand, while Q2 free cash flow of 1.5bln included higher cash tax payments partly due to the WBD termination fee. Sees Q3 EPS of 0.82 (exp. 0.84), sees Q3 revenue of 12.86bln (exp. 13.01bln). For FY26, sees revenue between of 51.0-51.4bln (exp. 51.41bln), and continues to see FY26 operating margin of 31.5%; expects content amortisation to grow slower in H2 and increase by about 10% for 2026. Projects 'rough doubling' of ad revenue to about 3bln in 2026. Netflix will now report engagement data annually, versus semi-annually prior.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - A California federal judge denied consumers’ request to temporarily block Paramount Skydance’s USD 110bln acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing no supporting evidence and doubts over standing. Separate challenges from Democratic state attorneys general and the Writers Guild of America remain pending, while European Commission clearance is expected next week.
Meta Platforms (META) - Meta plans to hire Amazon Web Services (AMZN) executive Dave Brown as it expands data-centre and computing ambitions, according to the WSJ. Brown is one of AWS’s most senior executives with nearly 20 years of experience, and is expected to join Meta within weeks.
Alphabet (GOOG) - Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro launch is months behind schedule as the company works to improve capabilities, particularly coding, according to Bloomberg. Employees fear Google could lose ground to Anthropic and OpenAI, while multiple internal approval layers and integration across search, maps and YouTube are contributing to delays.

TECH

Moonshot AI - Unveiled Kimi K3 on Thursday, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-source large language model that the company says is designed for advanced reasoning, knowledge work, and complex coding tasks. On benchmarks, K3 ranks No. 1 on the Frontend Code Arena coding leaderboard, ahead of Anthropic's Claude Fable 5, and No. 3 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, behind only Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol, while ranking ahead of Claude Opus 4.8. The benchmark results position K3 among the leading frontier AI models and highlight increasing competition for US AI developers.
Apple (AAPL) - Upgraded at HSBC to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a USD 366 PT (prev. 260). The firm believes Apple is now at an "operational turning point." Apple can stay away from the high capex debate as it only invests only 2.5% of its 2026 sales versus 39% for hyperscalers, and it is also well-positioned to leverage its 2.5bln installed device base with its forthcoming revamped Apple Intelligence. The "AI boost comes at the right moment, when we think Apple has one of its most innovative product pipelines in place." HSBC views Apple's hardware pipeline as strong, which includes the Phone 18 Pro and Pro Max this fall, an iPhone Air in April 2027, and "most importantly" a book-style foldable phone.
Microsoft (MSFT) - Preparing to launch Project Perception, a new AI-powered cybersecurity product that uses models from Microsoft, OpenAI, and Anthropic to identify and automatically remediate software vulnerabilities, The Information reports. The offering, which could debut as soon as this month, is aimed at expanding Microsoft's presence in the growing AI-driven cybersecurity market.
China AI - China President Xi Jinping called for inclusive international cooperation on AI and a more open technological order at the World AI Conference in Shanghai. He highlighted China’s progress in low-cost AI, said development should not be dominated by one country, and urged containment of safety risks.
Oracle (ORCL), Energy Transfer (ET) - New Mexico regulators rejected Energy Transfer’s applications for a natgas pipeline across state lands to supply power systems for a planned Oracle data centre, Bloomberg reports. The State Land Office said approving the requested rights-of-way and business lease would not serve New Mexico’s best interests.
CXMT - PC brands are reportedly rushing to secure memory from CXMT, with orders extending to end-2027, according to PC supply chain sources cited by Digitimes. CXMT’s IPO is nearing completion, while the US has briefly considered adding the Chinese DRAM maker to its entity list, but has not yet announced any move.
CACI International (CACI) - Received a 5yr US Navy Military Sealift Command technology contract worth up to USD 113mln.
Dassault Systemes (DASTY) - Dassault is in talks to acquire drug-trial software maker ArisGlobal from Nordic Capital for about USD 2bln, FT reports. The deal would expand its life-sciences software business and become its second-largest acquisition.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Yum Brands (YUM) - FDA said Taco Bell will permanently remove lettuce from a named supplier from its nationwide supply chain following an ongoing cyclosporiasis outbreak. The agency and the CDC linked 1,644 infections across Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, and West Virginia to shredded iceberg lettuce served at Taco Bell locations, resulting in 94 hospitalisations and no deaths. The lettuce was traced to a common supplier in Mexico.
Kalshi - A White House teleprompter operator is under CFTC investigation for allegedly using confidential information to profit from Kalshi wagers on President Trump’s speeches, Bloomberg reports. Kalshi froze more than USD 90K in profits after the trader allegedly made over USD 100K.
Honda (HMC), General Motors (GM) - Honda will end US EV sales after halting production of the Honda Prologue later in 2026, Bloomberg said. The Mexican-made model, developed with General Motors, will be discontinued after the 2026 model year due to weak demand. Honda will prioritise hybrids and internal combustion vehicles in the US.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) - Hilton plans to terminate two Frankfurt hotel management agreements after the US sanctioned registered owner Ali Ansari. The US Treasury described Ansari as a key financier for Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Autlivo (ALV) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.43 (exp. 2.46), Revenue 2.80bln (exp. 2.77bln); sees FY26 organic sales growth view around 0%.
Burberry (BURBY) - Comparable store sales rose 5% in the April-June quarter, matching expectations, supported by strong US spending; sales in Europe and the Middle East fell 3% as the Iran conflict reduced tourist spending in Europe.
Volvo Car (VLVCY) - Volvo Car expects significantly stronger H2 sales, supported by European growth and continued US recovery, despite weakness in China; it completed SEK 5bln of additional savings six months early, and expects strong positive free cash flow late in H2, ending FY approximately at break-even.

FINANCIALS

PayPal (PYPL) - PayPal’s board views Stripe and Advent International’s USD 53bln takeover offer as inadequate and potentially hindered by regulatory and financing risks, according to sources cited by Reuters. The USD 60.50/shr bid includes about USD 50bln of bank financing, and USD 17bln of equity. PayPal has not formally responded to the proposal, two other sources said.
Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 10.40 (exp. 5.27), Revenue 12.2bln (exp. 11.26bln), net written premiums 11.53bln (prev. 11.54bln last year). Expects that retention levels will remain strong during the remainder of 2026.
Truist Financial (TFC) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 1.23 (exp. 1.08), Revenue 5.31bln (exp. 5.21bln); sees Q3 revenue +1% & FY26 rev. +3.5-4.0%, NIM 2.98% (prev. 3.02% Q/Q). Credit loss provisions (excl. covered loans) 395mln (prev. 479mln Q/Q).
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) Q2 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.02 (exp. 0.84), Revenue 3.27bln (exp. 3.24bln). Other Metrics: NII 2.22bln (exp. 2.22bln), NIM 3.36% (prev. 3.3%), CET1 Ratio 9.93% (prev. 9.89%). Raised lower-end FY26 NII 8.74-8.8bln. Guided Q3 avg. loans and leases +1%.
Regions Financial (RF) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.68 (exp. 0.63), Revenue 1.95bln (exp. 1.95bln); NIM 3.66% (prev. 3.67% in Q1).
JPMorgan (JPM) - More than 100 companies have approached JPMorgan about banking and payment solutions for treasury operations in India’s GIFT City over the next 12-18 months, Bloomberg reports. JPM said interest is being supported by the hub’s ability to offer foreign currency accounts alongside INR capabilities.
Apollo Global Management (APO) - Apollo plans to deploy up to USD 20bln financing infrastructure and other projects in Mexico, offering quicker closings and longer terms than banks.
Simmons First National (SFNC) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.50 (exp. 0.52), Revenue 248.6mln (exp. 250.98mln).

HEALTHCARE

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.80 (exp. 2.51), Revenue 2.89bln (exp. 2.82bln). Da Vinci procedures grew nearly 15% (vs 16% in Q1). Execs said softer US procedure growth reflected a modest adverse impact from the expiration of enhanced ACA premium subsidies. CFO said US Da Vinci bariatric cases were pressured by patient use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, with bariatric cases down high single digits in the quarter. Reiterated its FY26 worldwide Da Vinci procedure growth view of between 13.5-15.5% (exp. 15.3%), saying it expects to be closer to the midpoint.
GSK (GSK) - Discontinued camlipixant development in refractory chronic cough after CALM-2 did not reach statistical significance in the primary endpoint.
STAAR Surgical (STAA) - Sees Q2 revenuve above USD 90mln (exp. 90.2mln).
Novartis (NVS) - Novartis said the FDA has approved Fabhalta to slow kidney function decline in adults with primary IgA nephropathy.

MATERIALS

Alcoa (AA) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.12 (exp. 2.33), Revenue 4.0bln (exp. 3.91bln). Alumina production -6% sequentially to 2.2mln metric tons, due to lower production at the Pinjarra refinery in Australia after instability was worsened by gas supply disruption from Cyclone Narelle; Aluminium production +5% sequentially to 636,000 metric tons on smelter restarts in Spain, Brazil, Norway and Australia. Aluminium shipments +18% sequentially, driven by inventory repositioning in North America and higher output from restarted capacity. Sees Q3 Alumina adj. EBITDA benefiting by around USD 10mln sequentially from Pinjarra stability and lower energy prices, partly offset by planned maintenance in Brazil, while lower Section 232 tariff costs on US aluminium imports from Canada are expected to reduce costs by approximately USD 10mln sequentially. Alcoa lowered its FY26 alumina production guidance to 9.5-9.6mln metric tons, and alumina shipments to 11.5-11.6mln metric tons, while maintaining Aluminium production between 2.4-2.6mln metric tons, and shipments between 2.6-2.8mln metric tons.

INDUSTRIALS

Boeing (BA), Airbus (EADSY) - Boeing and Airbus are each seeking a major narrowbody order from lessor SMBC Aviation Capital ahead of the Farnborough Air Show, according to Bloomberg. Boeing is in advanced talks for around 100 737 Max jets, while Airbus is in discussions for a similarly sized A320neo commitment. Avolon Holdings is also in talks for a large order at the show, though a deal may not be finalised in time, the report adds.

INDUSTRIALS

SpaceX (SPCX) - SpaceX’s Starship aborted seconds before its 13th test-flight liftoff on 16th July after some Super Heavy engines failed to start. CEO Elon Musk said two Raptor engines will be replaced, and another launch attempt is probable early next week.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Received a USD 101.75mln US Air Force contract to sustain Republic of Korea Peace Krypton mission equipment and aircraft systems.

UTILITIES

Fervo Energy (FRVO) - Upgraded at BofA to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 36 PT (prev. 40). The recent Sawtooth 7 drilling result strengthens the firm's conviction in Fervo's "learning-curve thesis". With 658 MW of binding power purchase agreements, a USD 7.2bln backlog, a 3 GW Google (GOOGL) framework and Cape Station under construction, the firm sees the current valuation providing "a particularly attractive buying opportunity".

ENERGY

BP (BP), ConocoPhillips (COP) - Companies are set to announce billions of dollars of new investments in Iraq during the US-Iraq Business Summit in Washington as the US seeks to reduce the region's reliance on routes vulnerable to Iranian disruption, CNBC reports, citing people familiar with the plans.

CONSUMER STAPLES

Coca-Cola (KO) - Coca-Cola-owned Fairlife identified unauthorised third-party access to production-related systems during a ransomware incident. US production is temporarily suspended, while Canadian operations and product quality and safety are unaffected. The company is investigating, restoring systems and working with law enforcement and cybersecurity advisers.