Newsquawk Daily US Equity Opening News - Mbappe signs for ONON; NFLX downgraded at Wells Fargo

DAY AHEAD:

• CENTRAL BANKS: Today’s Fedspeak includes: Fed’s Bowman (voter) on stress testing; Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter) at a bankers conference; Riksbank’s Thedeen speaks on innovation and payments.
• CRA: Potential ratings reviews today include: Moody’s on Germany (Aaa); Morningstar DBRS on France (AA); Scope Ratings on France (AA).
• ENERGY: Baker Hughes reports weekly rig counts (prev. oil 450, gas 132, total 591).
• OPTION EXPIRIES: FTSE 100, Euro Stoxx 50, DAX 40, E-mini S&P/Nasdaq/Dow Jones and CAC 40 Sep 2026 futures and options.

TECH:

• SoftBank (SFTBY), OpenAI - SoftBank’s planned SB Energy IPO, targeting a valuation around USD 50bln, faces added scrutiny after OpenAI delayed its listing, the FT reports. SB Energy has USD 439bln of contracted future revenue but no operating data centres, expects major revenue only from 2034, and needs more than USD 170bln of capex to build planned capacity, FT notes.
• SoftBank (SFTBY), Arm Holdings (ARM) - SoftBank increased its Arm-backed margin loan by USD 5bln to USD 25bln to help fund expanding AI investments, Bloomberg reports. The facility, secured by Arm shares, remains priced around 225bps over SOFR plus a 25bps adjustment. SoftBank has committed nearly USD 65bln to OpenAI, and could increase the loan further if Arm shares keep rising.
• OpenAI, Anthropic - Independent researchers used Anthropic’s Claude to exploit vulnerabilities and access an OpenAI employee’s ChatGPT account and private GitHub repository, the WSJ reports. OpenAI paid a USD 6.5K bounty, and said the issues were resolved. The researchers made limited reads and submitted a pull request before stopping once sensitive access became apparent.
• OpenAI - OpenAI launched Astra for Law, a legal-focused GPT-6 Astra platform for research, drafting and custom applications. It combines the model with US legal materials and will support vendors including Harvey and Legora, plus integrations with Relativity, Clio, Intapp and Thomson Reuters. Selected law firms will receive initial access with confidentiality protections.
• Anthropic - Anthropic said Claude now leads 26% of its AI R&D work, and collaborates with staff on about 90%. More than 30K agents were conducting research and engineering work simultaneously as of August. Anthropic said 6-12% of computing resources went toward safety monitoring, and reiterated plans to embed third-party evaluators with broad internal access.
• CXMT (688825 CH) - Plans to enter the NAND flash memory market, Reuters reports. The Chinese DRAM specialist intends to establish an R&D production line at its new Beijing plant, and has discussed NAND plans with customers. The move would broaden CXMT’s product base and put it against domestic rival YMTC amid a global memory shortage driven by AI-server demand, .
• Texas Instruments (TXN) - Raises quarterly dividend 7% to USD 1.52/shr.
• Palantir (PLTR) - Hired former Labour deputy leader Tom Watson as UK senior vice president as scrutiny grows over its GBP 330mln NHS contract. Watson will focus on ensuring public contracts support British jobs. MPs have urged the government to cancel the NHS deal; PM Burnham has not yet signalled whether he will use the contract’s break clause. Separately, CEO Karp said AI developers should be held responsible for their own actions rather than rely primarily on government regulation, adding that companies should still explain what they are doing about disclosed AI risks.
• Viasat (VSAT) - Said its ViaSat-3 F2 satellite entered service across the Americas, completing the ViaSat-3 constellation. The satellite provides more than 1 terabit per second of throughput and uses beamforming to direct capacity to high-demand areas. With F1 and F3 already operating, the constellation has tripled bandwidth across ViaSat’s global fleet.
• GitLab (GTLB) - Released version 19.4, expanding agentic automation across developer workflows with lower-cost options and stronger governance.
• Oracle (ORCL) - Co-CEO says the Co. has still not found a way to make generative AI broadly useful to its own workforce, Business Insider reports.

COMMUNICATIONS:

• Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) - The FCC approved foreign financing above 25% for Paramount Skydance’s proposed USD 110bln Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition. Foreign investors may hold 49.5% of Paramount’s Class B shares, while the Ellison family and RedBird Capital Partners would retain the largest equity stake and 100% of voting rights. Separately, Paramount Skydance is lobbying California Democrats, including Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, to pressure AG Bonta toward settling his challenge to its Warner Bros. Discovery merger, the NYP reports. Paramount has threatened to leave California without meaningful talks by 1st October, while Bonta says his office remains open to good-faith discussions.
• Disney (DIS) - Named Adam Smith Chairman of Direct-to-Consumer for Disney Entertainment, overseeing Disney+, Hulu, streaming strategy, advertising technology, programming, partnerships and data. Joe Earley was appointed President of Disney Entertainment Television Franchise and Content Strategy, leading franchise development, international originals, production, labour relations and creative talent development.

FINANCIALS:

• Societe Generale (SCGLY) - CEO Slawomir Krupa is expected to unveil higher profitability targets, further cost cuts and selective growth investments on 21st September, Bloomberg reports. Cuts are expected mainly in French retail banking and Ayvens, while investment may focus on trading, advisory, US expansion, data centre financing and Boursobank. Analysts expect continued emphasis on efficiency and capital discipline.
• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) - Named Warren Buffett Chairman Emeritus; he will remain a director.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY:

• Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon, which is an investor and partner of OpenAI and Anthropic, and also develops its own AI models, said AI models should be released only when “ready and safe” after rigorous testing and safeguards. The company rejected a trade-off between progress and safety, and said industry and government should work together on protections.
• McDonald’s (MCD) - Raised quarterly dividend 4% to USD 1.93/shr.
• Ross Stores (ROST) - Appointed Shelley Bransten and Christian Johnson to its board effective 1st October; Sharon Garrett will retire. Bransten currently holds a senior Microsoft (MSFT) role and previously worked at Salesforce (CRM) and Gap (GAP). Johnson has been a partner at Freeman Spogli since 2016, with earlier roles at Wachovia Securities and Genzyme.
• Honda (HMC) - Plans to accelerate next-gen hybrid production, starting a redesigned CR-V in North America as early as February 2027, Nikkei reports. The new hybrid system should improve fuel economy by over 10% and cut costs by more than 30%.
• On Holding (ONON) - Kylian Mbappe reportedly signs for On's football, quitting his long-term relationship with Nike (NKE).

CONSUMER STAPLES:

• US Screwworm - The US confirmed a second New Mexico case of New World screwworm in a horse near the Mexican border, Reuters reports. The case emerged as USDA prepared to reopen a New Mexico livestock port on 24th September. The US now has three active screwworm cases, including horses in New Mexico and Texas and a dog in Texas.
• PepsiCo (PEP) - Elected Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Chairman and CEO Joaquin Duato as an independent director, effective 1st December. Duato will also serve on PepsiCo’s Audit Committee.
• Nestle (NSRGY) - Said a Russian presidential decree placed Nestle Russia under temporary external administration; it is assessing the situation and its options, and said it will take necessary steps to protect its rights and maintain business continuity.
• Interparfums (IPAR) - Interparfums and Marquee Brands extended Interparfums’ exclusive worldwide licence for Roberto Cavalli and Just Cavalli fragrances by 20 years through 2046. The agreement covers continued global creation, development and distribution of the fragrances.
• Philip Morris (PM) - Board increases quarterly dividend 8% to USD 1.60/shr.

MATERIALS:

• Gold - Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold forecast at USD 5,400/oz, saying tighter Fed policy should slow rather than derail bullion’s rally.
• China Coal - China urged coal producers to stabilise output and accelerate mine reopenings after thermal-coal prices rose to their highest since October 2023. Qinhuangdao spot prices have climbed 1.9% this week. Output has fallen following safety inspections after a deadly Shanxi accident, while generators are stocking up ahead of major holidays.
• Nucor (NUE) - Shares fell 1.6% in extended trading after its Q3 earnings outlook came in below expectations, with higher costs, weaker raw materials earnings and the absence of prior-quarter one-off benefits weighing on the forecast. Sees Q3 EPS between 5.55-5.65 (exp. 6.20); expects Q3 earnings to rise sequentially in the steel mills and steel products segments, driven by higher average selling prices and stable or higher volumes, partly offset by higher costs. Raw materials earnings are expected to decline on lower pricing and shipments. Nucor noted Q2 steel mills earnings included USD 130mln of cash refunds related to prior raw material procurement costs, with no similar benefit expected in Q3. Corporate and eliminations expense is also expected to increase, reflecting the absence of the Helion valuation adjustment and intersegment profit eliminations broadly in line with Q2.
• Steel Dynamics (STLD) - Shares fell 2.2% in extended trading after its Q3 earnings outlook came in below expectations, despite stronger steel operations and improving aluminium profitability, as weaker recycling earnings and fabrication margin pressure weighed on the forecast. Q3 EPS seen between 5.34-5.38 (exp. 5.60). Steel operations profitability is expected to be significantly higher sequentially, driven by wider metal margins, record shipments, higher realised steel selling prices and lower scrap costs, with demand supported by non-residential construction, energy, automotive and industrial markets. Metals recycling earnings are expected to decline sequentially on lower metal spreads and modestly lower shipments, while steel fabrication earnings are expected to improve modestly as stronger shipments offset margin compression; fabrication backlog is nearly +50% Y/Y and extends through Q1 2027. Aluminium operations earnings are expected to improve meaningfully sequentially on higher shipments, with all three cold mills at the Columbus, Mississippi flat-rolled mill now operational and the first CASH line expected to ship commercial material in Q4.

INDUSTRIALS:

• SpaceX (SPCX) - NASA selected SpaceX to launch its StarBurst small-satellite mission, no earlier than 2028, aboard a Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral. StarBurst will study short gamma-ray bursts from neutron-star mergers and combine observations with gravitational-wave data. The launch is a firm-fixed-price task order under NASA’s VADR contract, which has a maximum value of USD 1bln.
• Boeing (BA) - Received a USD 112.41mln US Air Force contract modification for the F-15 Saudi Advanced Aircrew Training Device Phase II programme. The award raises the contract’s cumulative value to USD 256.67mln.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Received a USD 234.46mln US Army contract modification to procure 16 UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters. The award raises the contract’s cumulative value to USD 356.25mln.
• Leonardo DRS (DRS) - Signed a contract with Doosan Enerbility to supply the electric propulsion system for the Republic of Korea Navy’s KDDX destroyer programme. The lead ship is being built by Hanwha Ocean. The programme is expected to deliver at least six destroyers, using DRS permanent-magnet motors and variable-frequency drives.

ENERGY:

• Saudi Aramco - Saudi Arabia sold about 60mln barrels of crude from Ras Tanura for September-October loading via ship-to-ship transfer at Sohar, Reuters reports. Chinese and South Korean refiners are among the main buyers, with some volumes going to India and Japan. The additional supply has helped cool oil prices after disruptions at Yanbu.
• TotalEnergies (TTE) - Entered a partnership with Global Infrastructure Partners covering interests in certain African oil and gas infrastructure assets; GIP will contribute USD 1.8bln, while TotalEnergies will pay a throughput-based tariff for up to 15 years.
• Oil Price Forecasts - Analysts at JPMorgan said the Iran war’s endgame has become increasingly difficult to model as previously assumed economic red lines have been crossed. They estimate oil fair value near USD 90/bbl vs current prices around USD 104/bbl, which the bank says implies that markets are pricing roughly 4mln BPD of additional supply losses beyond 10mln BPD already disrupted.

HEALTHCARE:

• Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Entered a multi-target drug-discovery partnership with AI-focused Orbis Medicines worth up to USD 1.4bln to develop oral treatments for cardiometabolic diseases, Axios reports. The article states that the deal reflects broader pharmaceutical efforts to convert biologic medicines that typically require injections or infusions into more convenient and potentially lower-cost oral therapies.
• Biogen (BIIB) - Said Phase 3 VALIANT data showed EMPAVELI reduced proteinuria by 75% versus placebo within six months and stabilised kidney function in adolescents with C3G or primary IC-MPGN. The FDA recently expanded EMPAVELI’s label to include reducing kidney-function loss in patients aged 12 years and older, alongside reducing proteinuria.
• Cooper Companies (COO) - Jana Partners urged Cooper to replace CEO Albert White, appoint a new board chair and explore sales of its contact-lens, fertility and medical-device businesses, WSJ reports. Jana added that Cooper needs an urgent overhaul after prolonged underperformance.
• Sandoz (SDZNY) - Said Health Canada granted marketing authorisation for Sandoz Semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist injection and generic version of Ozempic. Separately, Sandoz announced a collaboration with mAbxience to expand access to biosimilar medicines; financial terms were not disclosed.
• AstraZeneca (AZN) - Efzimfotase alfa was granted US Priority Review for treating patients aged 2yrs+ with hypophosphatasia.

REAL ESTATE:

• W.P. Carey (WPC) - Raises quarterly dividend c. 1% to USD 0.95 (prev. 0.94).

GEOPOLITICS:

• US-Iran - Iran has conveyed conditions to Washington via intermediaries for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with minimum terms based on the “Islamabad understanding,” Al-Akhbar reports, citing a source close to Iran’s negotiating team. The source also disputed President Trump’s claim that Tehran directly sought renewed negotiations, calling it an attempt to influence global energy prices.
• US-Iran - UN-backed experts found reasonable grounds to believe US forces committed war crimes in Iran through indiscriminate attacks, Bloomberg reports. The panel examined strikes on a primary school in Minab that killed more than 150 people and on Lamerd that killed 22. The White House rejected the findings, while the Pentagon said its investigation remains ongoing.
• US-Europe - The Pentagon is considering withdrawing up to roughly one-third of US forces from Europe, though no decision has been made, NBC reports. Defence Secretary Hegseth is due a final recommendation on 6th November. European officials favour a gradual drawdown.
• UN Meeting - The Board of Peace will brief representatives from dozens of countries next week on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly about efforts to implement President Trump’s plan for rebuilding the Gaza Strip, the Times of Israel reports.
• North Korea - North Korea said US-led military drills are reinforcing its resolve to expand its nuclear arsenal. Kim Yo Jong accused the US of escalating tensions through multinational exercises with South Korea and Japan, and said Pyongyang would intensify its nuclear deterrent.

TRADE:

• US-Venezuela - President Trump is planning a possible meeting with Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodriguez as early as next week during the UN General Assembly in New York, Axios reports. A senior administration official said nothing is finalised.
• UK-EU - UK Chancellor Healey will urge Brussels to include the UK in its “Made in Europe” policy and signal willingness to negotiate toward a wider UK-EU reset deal, the FT reports.

MACRO:

• BoJ - The BoJ raised its policy rate by 25bps to 1.25%, in a 7-2 vote, with dovish board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting. Asada argued that with CPI growth (ex-fresh food) recently below 2%, the economic situation could not be described as strong, and favoured maintaining the existing guideline for money market operations. Sato considered that economic and price developments had not substantially accelerated compared with before, making a rate hike inappropriate at this time. The BoJ said underlying inflation is approaching 2%, and warned of a risk it could overshoot the target, citing broadening price pressures. In wake of the decision, the JPY fell vs the USD, as investors focused on the dovish dissenters and lack of explicitly hawkish guidance on further hikes. Daiwa Securities said the overall impression of the BoJ’s statement was dovish, noting that dissenters Sato and Asada, both chosen by PM Takaichi, suggest difficulties in raising rates further as new board members join.
• Japan Inflation - Japanese CPI was unchanged at 1.9% Y/Y in August (exp. 2.0%, prev. 1.9%), with the core measure easing to 1.7% Y/Y (exp. 1.8%, prev. 1.8%). The ex-food and energy component was unchanged at 1.9% Y/Y (exp. 2.0%).
• Japanese Yen - Japanese FinMin Katayama said authorities will work to maintain an orderly FX market and will not hesitate to conduct further coordinated FX intervention.
• US Fiscal - DoubleLine CEO Gundlach warned the next US recession could trigger a fiscal crisis that sends long-term Treasury yields higher. He said the budget deficit could reach 12% of GDP with annual interest expense around USD 3tln. Elsewhere, KKR raised its US 10yr Treasury yield forecast to 5.1% for end-2026, and 4.9% for end-2027; it expects the Fed to hike again in December and March, then hold rates through early 2029, citing persistent inflation, resilient nominal growth, large fiscal deficits and elevated term premiums.
• Chinese Yuan - The offshore yuan strengthened to its strongest level since July 2022, after the PBoC raised its daily fixing for an eighth straight session. The currency is heading for a seventh consecutive quarterly gain, supported by strong exports and conversion flows ahead of next week’s Trump-Xi meeting. The PBoC also injected CNY 463.3bln via seven-day reverse repos at 1.40%, and CNY 100bln through 14-day reverse repos; the liquidity operation comes ahead of China’s National Day holiday at the start of October.
• RBA - RBA Governor Bullock said labour market conditions remain close to, but slightly tighter than, full employment. She said some upside inflation risks are materialising as firms pass on higher costs, while growth and housing are slowing. The key question is whether existing monetary tightening is sufficient to return inflation to target.