Newsquawk Daily US Equity Opening News - MSFT raises dividend 8%; SK Hynix in US memory production talks with INTC

• DATA: NAHB housing market index (prev. 35). After today’s data, the Atlanta Fed will update its Q3 GDPNow tracking estimate (prev. 4.70%).
• CENTRAL BANKS: The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25bps to 3.75-4.00% (our preview is below); new economic projections are also due. Fed Chair Warsh will deliver remarks after the policy announcement. Canada’s BoC will release September meeting minutes. Brazil’s BCB is expected to cut rates by 25bps (exp. 13.75%, prev. 14.00%).
• ENERGY: Afterhours on Tuesday, weekly API inventory data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a surprise build of +7.1mln bbls (exp. -1.8mln), though stocks at Cushing saw a draw of -0.2mln bbls; in the products, gasoline inventories posted a surprise build of +1.5mln bbls (exp. -1.2mln), while distillate stocks saw a larger than expected build of +1.6mln bbls (exp. +0.8mln). The more widely followed DoE data will be published later today.
• FOMC PREVIEW: Markets expect the FOMC to hike rates by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, with money markets assigning around a 90% probability, following a hotter-than-expected August core CPI print and a robust August labour market report. However, around 15% of economists surveyed by Reuters expect a hold. Our full preview is available here

US EQUITY NEWS:

INDEX:

• Ed Yardeni cuts S&P 500 year-end target to 7,900 (prev. 8,400); mid-2027 price target of 8,400.

TECH:

• Nvidia (NVDA) - CEO Huang is expected to attend President Trump’s state dinner for Chinese President Xi Jinping next week, CNBC reports. AI is expected to feature prominently in Trump-Xi discussions. Huang previously travelled to China with Trump and has recently aligned with him in rejecting calls from other tech leaders to slow AI development.
• Microsoft (MSFT) - Raised quarterly dividend 8% to USD 0.98/shr.
• OpenAI - Has held early talks with investors about a private funding round at a valuation of about USD 1.2tln before its IPO, FT reports. Co. raised USD 122bln at an USD 852bln valuation in March. Its annualised revenue exceeded USD 40bln last month after GPT-5.6 boosted growth. Other reports said OpenAI could possibly delay its IPO if it takes a fresh funding round.
• OpenAI - OpenAI backed bipartisan US legislation addressing AI-related biological risks and defensive biotechnology, Politico reports. Proposals would expand NIST’s role in biosecurity standards, improve AI-ready biological data and centralise access to biodata. OpenAI said stronger measurement and safeguards are needed to understand model capabilities without advancing faster than biosecurity risks can be assessed.
• SoftBank (SFTBY) - Overnight, SoftBank’s five-year CDS were indicated around 383.2bps, near a three-year high, as investors assessed its OpenAI funding exposure, Bloomberg reports. SoftBank has committed USD 64.6bln to OpenAI, while wider credit spreads and a delayed OpenAI IPO could increase funding costs and postpone monetisation of SoftBank’s stake.
• Anthropic - Senior Trump admin officials met Anthropic chief compute officer Tom Brown to discuss AI safety risks. Pentagon CTO Michael and Commerce Secretary Lutnick joined the virtual meeting. The talks followed renewed tensions after Anthropic CEO Amodei urged regulation and slower development of advanced AI systems.
• SK Hynix (SKHY) - Union members approved a revised wage agreement with 57.1% support, Yonhap reports. The deal raises the cash portion of performance-based incentives to 50% from 40%, while reducing the share-based portion to 50% from 60%. Separately, SK Hynix is reportedly in talks with Intel (INTC) about producing memory chips in the US; options include leasing Intel’s Ohio facility, or forming a JV involving Intel and major cloud companies.
• Micron (MU) - Appointed Deirdre Hanford as corporate vice president and president of Micron Research Labs. She will build the lab’s research infrastructure, operating model and partnerships, and define its research agenda.
• Elastic (ESTC) - CTO Shay Banon sold 84,207 shares at an average USD 84.64, for a total USD 7.13mln. Banon now owns 3.9mln Elastic shares directly, and 1.55mln indirectly.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) - Announced the bring up of multi-rack NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 on CoreWeave Cloud, putting hundreds of NVIDIA Rubin GPUs into a single scale-out cluster for agentic AI.

COMMUNICATIONS:

• Meta Platforms (META) - CEO Zuckerberg said AI labs should use independent evaluators and advisers rather than broadly slowing development. Meta delayed Muse for several months over safety and security concerns.
• Paramount Global (PSKY), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) - The DoJ urged a federal judge to require states and the Writers Guild challenging Paramount Skydance’s USD 110bln Warner Bros. Discovery takeover to post a bond. Paramount seeks nearly USD 1.9bln to cover potential delay fees. The DoJ has cleared the merger, while the challengers argue it could reduce competition.
• Vodafone (VOD) - Could miss up to EUR 1.1bln of potential proceeds after Patrick Drahi’s Geodesia sold its 50% OXG stake to Societe Generale, FT reports. SG will not inherit EUR 487mln of deferred payments or a potential EUR 595mln earnout.

FINANCIALS:

• Clarity Act - The Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, sending Bitcoin prices to below USD 75,000. The setback leaves crypto regulation more dependent on the SEC and CFTC, while potentially delaying investment, acquisitions and broader Wall Street expansion due to reduced regulatory certainty.
• Blackstone (BX) - Seeking at least USD 8bln for its fourth private credit fund focused on renewables and digital infrastructure, Bloomberg reports. The fund will lend across energy security, power, utilities, data centres and chip financing. Its predecessor raised USD 7.1bln in 2023 and generated a 15% net internal rate of return as of 30th June.
• Apollo Global Management (APO) - A House committee voted 41-0 to recommend holding Apollo co-founder Leon Black in contempt of Congress after he defied subpoenas related to Jeffrey Epstein. The matter now goes to the full House. Black denies any wrongdoing, and has sued to block the subpoenas; he called the contempt resolution an abuse of power.
• Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) - Cuts FY27 (USD): EPS 1.75-1.83 (prev. 1.90-1.93, exp. 1.88), implied revenue growth 34% (prev. 37%), and NII 35% (prev. 39-43%); expects 1.3-1.4bln share repurchases.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY:

• Tesla (TSLA) - NHTSA asked Tesla whether the Cybercab can be driven using temporary traditional controls and whether such equipment formed part of Tesla’s basis for certifying compliance with federal safety standards, WSJ reports.
• Gap (GAP) - Appointed Forerunner founder and managing partner Kirsten Green to its board, effective immediately. Green has more than 20 years of venture capital experience and has backed over 100 companies through Forerunner, including OURA, Chime, Hims & Hers, Faire, Warby Parker and Dollar Shave Club.
• Trip.com (TCOM) - Shares rose 3.9% in extended US trading after adj. earnings beat expectations, revenue was broadly in line and management highlighted continued momentum in inbound and international travel. Q2 adj. EPS 7.27 (exp. 5.74), Revenue USD 2.36bln (exp. 2.35bln). Revenue in RMB terms was 15.7bln (exp. 15.59bln), Q2 net loss RMB 2.4bln, or USD 361mln, primarily reflecting a RMB 5.2bln anti-monopoly penalty imposed by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation. CEO said inbound and world-to-world travel continued to gain momentum; is expanding travel and lifestyle offerings and using technology and international marketing to support sustainable growth.
• Amazon (AMZN) - Planning an expansion of its same-day delivery operation, with the initiative expanding the fulfilment network to more than 1,000 locations by 2031, Business Insider reports.
• Starbucks (SBUX) - Reportedly considering to sell its majority stake in its Japanese business, valued at USD 3bln, according to sources.

CONSUMER STAPLES:

• Celsius Holdings (CELH) - Director Damon DeSantis purchased 36k shares at between USD 27.65-27.95, for a total of USD 1mln. Following the purchase, DeSantis now owns 2.7mln Celsius shares.

MATERIALS:

• Ashland (ASH) - Collecting bids in September as part of a sales process, Dealreporter reports. Apollo Global Management (APO) and Carlyle Group (CG) are among private-equity firms showing interest. It has been previously reported that Ashland was exploring a potential sale after receiving takeover interest.
• Indonesia Nickel - Indonesia cut benchmark prices for lower-grade nickel ore, easing costs for local processors hit by higher sulphur prices linked to the US-Iran war. The revised formula nearly halves the minimum price for 1.2% nickel ore and benefits high-pressure acid leach plants. Analysts said any significant new capacity could add further pressure to nickel prices.

INDUSTRIALS:

• CATL (CYATY) - Shares have now fallen around 10% over two days amid concerns over Q3 profitability, possible September production cuts and increasing supply diversification by EV makers, Bloomberg reports. Shares are around 35% below their May peak.
• Reliance Worldwide (RWC AT), Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) - Brookfield Asset Management agreed to acquire Australian plumbing supplies company Reliance Worldwide in an all-cash deal valued at approximately USD 2.9bln; Brookfield’s offer is worth AUD 4.75/shr. The Reliance board unanimously recommended the proposal, citing tariff pressures and macroeconomic uncertainty. The agreement includes a “Go Shop” provision allowing Reliance to seek rival bids.
• Planet Labs (PL) - Planet Labs Germany was awarded a satellite-services contract by Germany’s Interior Ministry. The Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy will distribute high-resolution imagery, nationwide Planet Mosaics and geospatial analytics across civil government. The deal also includes dedicated satellite tasking and a cloud-native platform hosted on European infrastructure.
• J.B. Hunt (JBHT) - Sees Q2 to Q3 earnings to drop 5-10% amid higher costs.

HEALTHCARE:

• GSK (GSK) - Targeting six approved oncology medicines by the end of 2026 and nine by 2029; multiple new drugs are expected to support the company’s ambition to exceed GBP 40bln in sales by 2031.
• Merck (MKKGY) UK NICE recommended Merck’s Ezmekly for treating symptomatic, inoperable plexiform neurofibromas associated with neurofibromatosis type 1 in patients aged 2-17 years.
• Galderma (GALDY) - Galderma reported positive topline results from a Chinese study of Restylane Volyme for moderate-to-severe temple hollowing; the 162-patient study met its primary endpoint.
• Medtronic (MDT) - US FDA has cleared the LigaSure(TM) RAS Maryland jaw device for use with the Hugo(TM) robotic-assisted surgery system.
• Twist Bioscience Corporation (TWST) - Announced an agreement with Lilly TuneLab, a collaborative AI/ML drug discovery platform created by Eli Lilly and Company (LLY).

UTILITIES:

• EU Carbon Markets - Germany proposed tighter rules for the EU carbon market reserve to prevent excess permits depressing prices, Bloomberg reports. Its plan would retain a 24% absorption rate, lower the surplus-withdrawal trigger to 650mln allowances (from 833mln), and reduce the reserve threshold 4% annually from 2028. The proposal has divided member states and may delay any agreement.

ENERGY:

• ExxonMobil (XOM) - Received approval for its Rose carbon-capture project in Texas. The Railroad Commission of Texas approved the permit 2-1, allowing Exxon to inject up to 53mln tonnes of carbon dioxide over 13 years from Gulf Coast industrial emitters into underground rock formations for permanent storage.
• US Energy Inventories - Afterhours on Tuesday, weekly API inventory data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a surprise build of +7.1mln bbls (exp. -1.8mln), though stocks at Cushing saw a draw of -0.2mln bbls; in the products, gasoline inventories posted a surprise build of +1.5mln bbls (exp. -1.2mln), while distillate stocks saw a larger than expected build of +1.6mln bbls (exp. +0.8mln). The more widely followed DoE data will be published later today.
• China Energy Inventories - China’s gasoline and diesel inventories have fallen sharply, raising the risk of renewed fuel-export restrictions, Bloomberg says. Gasoline stocks have fallen to the lowest since 2022, and diesel stocks to a 15-month low. Energy Aspects sees a growing chance Q4 clean-product exports could be limited to around 1.2mln tonnes monthly.
• Japan Energy - Japan’s Eneos Holdings and Idemitsu Kosan accelerated purchases of Middle Eastern crude after Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline shutdown tightened prompt supply concerns, Bloomberg reports. The refiners bought Oman crude for October loading, earlier than usual. Two 2mln bbl cargoes reportedly traded at premiums of up to USD 38/bbl vs Dubai benchmarks.

GEOPOLITICS:

• US-Iran - Vice President JD Vance said the Iran war could enter a “much different phase” within months as the US focuses on preventing Tehran from rebuilding.
• US-China - China’s Defence Minister Dong Jun called for stronger international AI oversight, including governance consultations, security dialogues, risk assessments and rule-setting. Speaking at the Xiangshan Forum, he highlighted military misuse risks and also pledged expanded cooperation on equipment and technology, as US-China competition over AI capabilities and governance intensifies.
• Space Weapons - Pentagon leaders acknowledged for the first time that the US has deployed weapons in space, the WSJ reported. Space Force officials said the disclosure aims to normalise military use of space and deter threats from China and Russia. China urged Washington to stop expanding its military build-up in orbit, warning against an arms race.
• US-Japan/South Korea - The US Navy is considering buying warships built in Japan and South Korea to accelerate fleet expansion while rebuilding domestic shipbuilding capacity, Nikkei reports. Options include an upgraded Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHVIY) Mogami-class frigate. Washington is also weighing South Korean and Turkish designs as China rapidly expands its naval fleet and shipbuilding base.
• US-Israel - The US is reportedly preparing a potential arms transfer to Israel worth up to USD 2.8bln. The package is said to include up to 20K MK-84 bombs, 20K BLU-117 bombs and 20K I-2000 Penetrator warheads. Congressional committees have been informally notified, but the State Department has not yet submitted the proposal for formal review.
• Cyber Attacks - US Coast Guard personnel and FBI agents boarded a foreign-flagged tanker on 21st August to investigate a suspected cyberattack. VL Prosperity had reportedly lost communications for 30 hours near Gibraltar. Authorities said there were no operational disruptions, safety issues or environmental impacts, and the vessel remained off Galveston after carrying nearly 2mln bbls of Saudi crude.

TRADE:

• US-Mexico - The US is pressing Mexico to adopt stricter rules of origin for AI hardware to limit Chinese content and prevent tariff circumvention, WSJ reports. The proposal, being discussed in USMCA talks, could extend North American sourcing requirements beyond autos to electronics and medical equipment, potentially affecting manufacturers such as Foxconn (HNHPF) and Nvidia (NVDA) suppliers.
• Japan Trade Balance - Japan’s August exports rose 19.3% Y/Y (exp. 18.2%; prev. 23.2%), imports increased 28.0% (exp. 26.3%; prev. 27.9%), and the trade deficit widened to JPY 1.106tln (exp. 1.053tln; prev. 638.3bln). Semiconductor-related exports surged, while higher oil import costs widened the deficit.

MACRO:

• PBoC - PBoC Governor Pan said China’s era of rapid credit growth has ended as borrowing demand changes. He said slower financing growth can help stabilise debt levels, reflecting a shift towards high-tech industries that rely less on loans. The PBoC will also place less emphasis on numerical loan targets and refine short-term rate adjustments.
• RBNZ - RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk will leave in December after the year’s final monetary policy decision. The bank will create separate assistant governor roles for monetary policy and for payments and cash. The new monetary policy appointee is expected to join the MPC, subject to finance minister approval.
• UK Inflation - UK CPI rose 3.1% Y/Y in August (exp. 3.1%; prev. 2.9%), a five-month high, driven by higher motor fuel prices amid the ongoing Iran war (the BoE had forecast 2.8%). Services CPI held at 3.4% Y/Y, and core CPI was unchanged at 2.6% Y/Y (exp. 2.6%). The BoE is set to meet on Thursday, and is currently expected to hold rates, though Governor Bailey has warned of new risks to food prices from UK drought and El Nino, leaving some hawkish risks in play.