Daily US Equity Opening News - NVDA may gain China RTX PRO approval; AAPL ordered to pay USD 5.7bln in patent case; US plans to ease fuel economy standards; UBS attracts merger interest; BA identifies 737 MAX landing software glitch

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: UK Chancellor Healey will deliver remarks from the Labour Party Conference today.
• DATA: In North America, US Dallas Fed manufacturing index is due (prev. 11.6).
• CENTRAL BANKS: Fed’s Bowman (voter) will give remarks on bank supervision; the subject of her speech signals risks she could avoid remarks on monetary policy/economic outlook. Fed’s Cook (voter) will give remarks on emerging technologies; the subject of her speech signals risks she could avoid remarks on monetary policy/economic outlook; Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter) will participate in a fireside chat. From the ECB, President Lagarde, ECB’s Elderson, ECB’s Machado. From the BoE’s, Ramsden speaks on QT. Elsewhere, Norges Bank’s Longva and Borsum are due.
• OPTION EXPIRIES: UST September 2026 futures expire.
• SUPPLY: EU auctions EUR 7bln of 2029, 2035 and 2048.
• EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting today includes: JEF.
• WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include: US NFP, PCE, ISM Manufacturing PMI; EZ CPI; RBA policy announcement. This week’s notable corporate earnings includes: MU, ACN, NKE.

GEOPOLITICS:

• US-Iran - President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz immediately, saying Iran wants a deal because it is losing badly, though he expects talks to resume this week. He said Iran’s conditions were something the US may have agreed to a year ago, and that Tehran has overplayed its hand. Trump said oil will drop once the Iran war ends, adding a record amount of oil was taken from Hormuz on Saturday night. He also reportedly told Chinese President Xi to stop supporting Iran during their summit.
• US-Iran - Iran’s delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source cited by IRNA. Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran has seen Trump’s initial response to its 7-day ceasefire proposal but awaits the official response via mediators, reiterating that any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on Iran’s conditions being met. He said Iran came to forge peace, not sell war, remaining steadfast against aggression while ready for real diplomacy. Elsewhere, an IRGC spokesman said the Strait remains a hunting ground for its navy against US submersibles.
• US-Taiwan - President Trump said the Taiwan issue came up during meetings with Chinese President Xi, though they did not discuss it extensively, adding that Xi understands his position. Separately, Trump administration officials said the US has no plans to sell weapons to China, after US Ambassador to Beijing Perdue told the WSJ that Trump had at one point offered to sell US arms to Xi.
• Swiss Neutrality - Swiss voters rejected a proposal to enshrine stricter neutrality in the constitution, with more than 70% voting against it. The result preserves the government’s flexible interpretation of neutrality, and its ability to maintain sanctions against Russia. A separate proposal to increase domestic food production also failed, receiving less than 28% support.

TRADE:

• US-China - The US and China released lists covering USD 30bln worth of goods for planned tariff cuts, comprising 77 Chinese products and 1,619 US products, without specifying reduction amounts. China’s MOFCOM said about 90% of products covered by the reciprocal arrangement would have tariffs reduced to most favoured-nation rates. The Chinese list includes items such as coal, livestock, meat, seafood, dairy, produce, grains and medical equipment, while the US list features household goods, textiles, toys, appliances and sporting goods.

MACRO:

• Fed - US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged Fed policymakers to keep an open mind on interest rates, arguing that AI-driven productivity gains and deregulation would help reduce inflation. He also said core inflation has been very stable, and has declined in recent months.
• China Industrial Profits - Chinese industrial profit growth slowed further in August, rising 4.2% Y/Y (prev. 11.2% in July), as technology manufacturing strength was outweighed by weak domestic demand. Profits for the first eight months rose 15.7% (vs 17.6% in January-July). Computer, communication and electronic equipment manufacturing led gains, while wine, beverages and refined tea profits fell.
• Japanese Yen - Japanese FX official Mimura said authorities are closely watching whether markets take their message at face value, and remain dissatisfied with recent JPY moves. He said the BoJ’s shift towards rate hikes is gradually narrowing the Japan-US yield gap, and that Japan has sent the US a clear message on rates.
• EU Fiscal - EU leaders are reportedly deadlocked over the bloc’s next long-term budget ahead of a 15th October meeting, Politico reports, citing a German diplomatic cable. The impasse raises the prospect that no agreement will be reached by the end of 2026.
• French Senate - France’s conservative Republicans party and its allies were set to retain a Senate majority after Sunday’s election, holding at least 127 and 72 seats respectively, even as the populist National Rally gained ground. National Rally and allies secured at least 14 Senate seats, enough to form a formal group.
• BoJ Minutes - BoJ minutes from the July meeting showed members agreed financial conditions remain accommodative, with many noting firms are steadily passing on rising raw material costs, keeping inflation elevated. Many said medium and long-term inflation expectations are heightening for both households and companies, with price rises for consumer goods likely to broaden from summer onwards as underlying inflation approaches 2%. One member said markets expect the BoJ to hike roughly once every six months, though hikes could come more quickly.

TECH:

• Nvidia (NVDA) - China has signalled it may allow domestic companies including ByteDance and Alibaba (BABA) to buy Nvidia’s RTX PRO 5500 chips, The Information reports. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reportedly asked companies about purchase plans and indicated approvals may follow.
• Apple (AAPL) - A US jury ordered Apple to pay Taction more than USD 5.7bln after finding its Taptic Engine infringed two haptic technology patents, Reuters reports. Apple denied using Taction’s technology, said the patents were invalid and plans to appeal.
• SK Hynix (SKHY) - SK Hynix shares fell in APAC trade after reports that its subsidiary Solidigm is considering a US IPO as soon as next year that could value the data storage maker at up to USD 100bln. The Korea Corporate Governance Forum had urged SK Hynix in August to drop the plan, citing concerns over the group’s pyramid ownership structure.
• Anthropic - A US appeals court upheld the Pentagon’s blacklisting of Anthropic from military contracts, Reuters reports. The 2-1 ruling found concerns over Anthropic’s restrictions on autonomous weapons and mass surveillance reasonable, and rejected claims of retaliation over AI safety views. Anthropic disagreed and is considering further review.
• OpenAI - OpenAI agents accessed US Commerce Department and SEC websites during training runs and engaged in activity the company described as “misaligned”, WSJ reports. The SEC said no non-public information was accessed. OpenAI said most reviewed activity involved routine public web research, and that it had notified affected agencies. Separately, WSJ reported that OpenAI agents bombarded a UN website with search requests and used aggressive techniques to access data in June. The incident was described in an independent report by Rowan Howard-Jones based on data from AI research firm Transluce.
• ByteDance - Alabama AG Steve Marshall announced a settlement under which TikTok will pay the state at least USD 100mln within 45 days, potentially rising to USD 300mln if conditions are met. TikTok must also introduce child-safety features, resolving Alabama claims over addictive design, alleged mental harms to young users and misleading safety representations.
• Trimble (TRMB) - Trimble is considering breaking up its transportation and logistics portfolio, and Goldman Sachs is marketing the division for sale amid strong deal activity in the transportation management system market, Axios reports.
• Infineon (IFNNY) - Infineon’s USD 1.44bln semiconductor plant in Thailand will start production on 1st October. Rexel (RXEEY) - Rexel agreed to acquire GCG for an enterprise value of approximately USD 1.4bln; the transaction is expected to close by the end of 2026.

COMMUNICATIONS:

• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Paramount Skydance will voluntarily transfer its Class B common stock listing from Nasdaq (NDAQ) to the NYSE (ICE). Nasdaq trading is expected to end at market close around 5th October, with NYSE trading expected to begin at market open around 6th October.
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) - CNN was barred from travelling with US President Trump on Air Force One for a weekend Tennessee trip, BBC reports. The move follows earlier White House restrictions on CNN, Politico and MS NOW, which a federal judge said were likely unconstitutional.

CONSUMER CYCLICAL:

• US Autos, Fuel Economy Standards - The Trump administration plans to release new fuel efficiency mandates on Monday, easing Biden-era rules. Transport Secretary Duffy called it a “major victory” for auto workers. If the final rule mirrors last year’s proposal, it would lower fuel-economy requirements for 2031 model-year vehicles to 34.5 MPG from about 50 MPG.
• NIO (NIO), Geely (GELHY) - NIO agreed a strategic battery-swapping and charging transaction with subsidiaries of Zhejiang Geely Holding Group. Geely will contribute Yiyi Internet Technology plus CNY 640mln for a 30% stake in NIO Power. NIO Holding will retain 63.6%, while Wuhan Guangchuang will own 6.4%. The transaction values NIO Power at about CNY 16bln.
• Mercedes (MBG) - Mercedes reportedly wants to separate from its van factory near Berlin, which is drawing interest from KNDS, Handelsblatt reports.
• European Luxury Fashion - Armani is reportedly to begin a 15% stake sale, and is holding talks with LVMH (LVMUY), L’Oreal (LRLCY) and EssilorLuxottica (ESLOY); Armani CEO said that the company would be open to having more than one investor for the stake stale.
• Prediction Markets - A US appeals court ruled Ohio and Tennessee can regulate Kalshi’s event contracts under gambling laws, finding Kalshi had not shown they were swaps subject exclusively to CFTC oversight. The decision deepens a federal circuit split and could prompt Supreme Court review, Reuters said.
• Entain (GMVHY) - Maintained its FY26 EBITDA guidance, despite Brazil’s ban on online betting, but sees performance at the lower end of ranges.

CONSUMER DEFENSIVE:

• PepsiCo (PEP) - President Abelardo De La Espriella said PepsiCo plans to invest USD 1bln in Colombia over five years to expand production, modernise operations and strengthen distribution. He said the investment would support employment, more than 2,000 farmers and Colombian shopkeepers.

FINANCIALS:

• Citigroup (C) - Citigroup is targeting more than USD 3bln from a Banamex IPO planned for January, Bloomberg reports. Citigroup currently owns about 51% of Banamex and expects to reduce this below 50%. Citi will lead the deal alongside Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan (JPM). The banks are evaluating further pre-IPO stake sales too.
• UBS Group (UBS) - At least eight major foreign banks have expressed interest in a possible merger or combination with UBS, according to Swiss tabloid Blick. Comes as UBS faces proposed tougher Swiss capital rules that it estimates could require about USD 18bln in additional capital. Management has reportedly revived discussions on reducing exposure to Swiss regulation, including via a foreign bank combination. Morgan Stanley (MS) has been cited as a potential suitor.
• **KKR & Co. (KKR): Estimates Q3 monetisation income in excess of USD 750mln. QTD monetisation activity through 25 September comprises approximately 80% realised performance income and 20% realised investment income. The figure excludes the previously announced USD 17bln sale of USI Insurance Services to Aon, which is expected to close in Q4 2026; subject to closing, KKR expects after-tax proceeds of approximately USD 3.3bln from the USI transaction, generating approximately USD 2bln of adj. net income and more than 2.00 of ANI per share.
• Circle Internet (CRCL) - Circle Internet Group said CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen will step down after more than five years in the role. He will remain CFO through December 2026, unless a successor is appointed earlier. The company has begun searching for its next CFO.

MATERIALS:

• BASF (BASFY), Evonik (EVKIY) - BASF confirmed exploratory talks with RAG-Stiftung and Evonik regarding a potential takeover of Evonik; it said the talks remain open, and no outcome has been determined.
• Northern Star Resources (NESRF), Gold Fields (GFI) - Northern Star Resources rejected a cash-and-shares takeover approach from Gold Fields valuing it at AUD 38.7bln, calling the offer highly opportunistic, and said it did not reflect the fundamental value of its portfolio. Chairman Chaney said the implied AUD 27/shr bid (a 22% premium), came at an opportune time ahead of a new project and incoming CEO Vadnagra.
• Barrick Mining (B) - Barrick Mining reached an agreement with unions representing workers at its Loulo-Gounkoto gold mining operation in western Mali, averting strikes planned to begin Monday, according to the Mali’s National Workers’ Union.
• Metallus (MTUS) - US Department of War awarded Metallus a maximum USD 995mln contract for High Fragmentation 1 Steel. The five-year sole-source contract has no option periods, and is scheduled for completion on 24th September 2031.

INDUSTRIALS:

• Boeing (BA) - Boeing has identified a 737 MAX software glitch that could cause an automated navigation feature to fail during landing, potentially forcing pilots to fly manually without some autopilot functions, WSJ reports. Boeing notified operators in late August, saying it did not pose a safety risk, while working on a permanent software fix. Southwest Airlines (LUV) and United Airlines (UAL) requested an earlier software version for new deliveries. The FAA is investigating. GE Aerospace (GE), which developed the software, said it is working with Boeing and supporting the FAA’s.
• Siemens (SIEGY) - Siemens is reorganising to integrate hardware, software and AI more closely and improve profitability, Bloomberg reports. From 1st October, four Digital Industries units will combine into one automation business. CEO Busch aims to simplify customer access, increase cross-selling and strengthen Siemens’ industrial AI position after more than USD 15bln of software acquisitions. Elsewhere, BeNEX commissioned Siemens Mobility to supply 56 regional trains for the Mainfranken network. The vehicles will include ETCS, intermittent automatic train control and Onboard Units, and are scheduled to enter service on the Frankfurt-Wurzburg-Nurnberg/Bamberg routes at the end of 2030.
• Northrop Grumman (NOC) - Northrop Grumman was awarded a USD 111.4mln modification to a previously awarded US Air Force contract for Ground Based Strategic Deterrent engineering and manufacturing development, early production and deployment.

ENERGY:

• US Diesel Export Ban - President Trump reiterated that he is “very seriously” considering a US diesel export ban to curb high prices. Administration officials are assessing a short-term ban, and Energy Secretary Wright is discussing voluntary export curbs with refiners. Oil executives favour suspending the federal diesel excise tax instead, warning an export ban could disrupt overseas buyers.
• EU Energy - The EU warned member states of a potential energy price crisis driven by the Middle East conflict. Energy Commissioner Jorgensen has asked governments to consider demand-cutting measures and continue filling gas storage ahead of winter. He said the region’s storage facilities are just over 70% full vs seasonal norms of 86%. Jorgensen suggested reducing the filling target to 80% under regulatory flexibility to help alleviate price pressure.
• ExxonMobil (XOM) - Exxon agreed a JV with Azerbaijan’s SOCAR to explore and develop unconventional oil and gas resources in the Middle Kura Basin, Bloomberg reports. Exxon will operate the project, subject to legislative approval. The companies have negotiated the deal for more than a year, with support from the Trump administration.
• TotalEnergies (TTE) - TotalEnergies, SOCAR and XRG have taken FID for full-field development of the Absheron gas and condensate field. Production is expected to reach 6 BCMA of gas, and 47K BPD of condensate; start-up is planned for 2029. The gas will supply Azerbaijan’s domestic market, and be exported to Turkey. Separately, TotalEnergies is planning a USD 2.5bln buyback in Q4, and then just over USD 2bln in Q1.

HEALTHCARE:

• Eli Lilly (LLY) - FDA approved once-daily Olumiant for patients aged 12 years and older with severe alopecia areata. The approval expands Olumiant’s US label beyond its existing use in adults with moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis and severe alopecia areata.
• Nektar (NKTR), Eli Lilly (LLY) - A US jury found Eli Lilly breached the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing in its rezpegaldesleukin licence agreement with Nektar. Nektar was awarded USD 90mln in damages plus interest to be determined by the court. The verdict remains subject to post-trial proceedings. Analysts at BTIG said Nektar’s share weakness following the update presents a strong entry point, despite the USD 90mln jury award being below the roughly USD 1bln initially expected; BTIG said litigation completion should remove an overhang and allow focus on Nektar’s atopic dermatitis and alopecia areata programmes.
• Merck (MRK), Daiichi Sankyo (DSNKY) - Daiichi Sankyo and Merck voluntarily withdrew the US BLA seeking accelerated approval for ifinatamab deruxtecan in extensive stage small cell lung cancer after FDA discussions found supporting data insufficient. Enrolment continues in the IDeate-Lung02 Phase 3 trial, with the companies considering future regulatory filings based on its results.
• Accuray (ARAY), Samsung (SSNLF) - Accuray entered agreements with Samsung HME America to pursue advanced volumetric imaging capabilities for the CyberKnife System.
• UK Pharma - The UK could miss savings of hundreds of millions of pounds as around 50 biosimilars may not launch because of pricing, NHS usage and tax concerns, the lobby Medicines UK has warned. The affected medicines currently cost the NHS about GBP 608mln annually. Sandoz (SDZ) has said the UK’s clawback system and treatment of biosimilar manufacturers deter market entry.