Daily US Equity Opening News - NVDA slips despite topping expectations; WMT Q2 EPS outlook miss; IBM set to receive $1B award

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.4%, NQ -0.6%, YM -0.3%, RUT -0.6%
BROKER MOVES: OXY upgraded at Goldman; TGT downgraded at Freedom Finance. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: NVDA, Samsung, IBM/GFS/QBTS/RGTI/INFQ, WMT, RL, OXY. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: JPM, NEM, UNP, CAT, FCX, LITE. For the full list, click here.
EVENTS: Pakistani Army Chief will visit Iran today to announce the achievement of a final draft agreement, reports suggest. White House’s AI and cybersecurity order will task national security and civilian agencies with scrutinising advanced AI models, possibly from Thursday.
DATA: In North America, US flash PMIs are due: composite exp. at 51.5 (prev. 51.7), services at 51.1 (prev. 51.0), and manufacturing at 53.8 (prev. 54.5).
SPEAKERS: Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter, neutral) speaks on the economic outlook. Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) will give a radio interview. BoE Governor Bailey (neutral) speaks at Cutler’s Feast (text is expected),
SUPPLY: US to sell USD 19bln of 10-year TIPS.
ENERGY: Weekly EIA natural gas storage change data are due; the consensus looks for a build of 96bcf (prev. 85bcf).
EARNINGS: Notable earnings releases today include: WDAY, ROST, DECK, ZM, TTWO, CPRT.

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS

US-Iran - According to Fox News, the White House is pushing back on Reuters reports that Iran is drawing a hard line in nuclear talks. Reuters earlier reported that the Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei ordered enriched uranium to stay in Iran. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Army Chief is to travel to Tehran on Thursday as part of mediation efforts between the US and Iran. Washington has reportedly sent revised text through Pakistani mediators after Iran submitted its 14-point proposal. President Trump on Wednesday said that negotiations were in the “final stages”, but warned the US could get “a little bit nasty” if no agreement is reached. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Iran is pursuing talks “in good faith” but views US with “deep suspicion”, and confirmed multiple rounds of messages have been exchanged through Pakistani intermediaries based on the 14-point proposal. Tehran is studying the US text and has not yet submitted its response, Al Arabiya reported, as Pakistan works to bring US and Iranian positions closer. Elsewhere, Al Hadath reported that work is underway on a framework for a temporary agreement between Tehran and Washington.
US-China - China is blocking a proposed Beijing visit by Pentagon under-secretary Elbridge Colby, using it as leverage over a USD 14bln US arms package for Taiwan that includes Patriot interceptor missiles and NASAMS, according to the FT. Beijing cancelled an earlier round of talks with Colby after the package was compiled following a USD 11.1bln arms sale announced in December. Trump has described the weapons as a “very good negotiating chip,” with analysts suggesting China’s goal is to delay any announcement until after President Xi Jinping’s expected September state visit to Washington.
Taiwan - President Trump said he intends to speak to Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, which would be the first direct conversation between US and Taiwanese presidents since Washington shifted diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979. Taiwan’s foreign ministry said Lai would welcome such a call.
China-North Korea - Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit North Korea as early as late May or early June, Yonhap reported citing government officials, which would be his first trip to the country in seven years. China’s security and protocol teams have recently visited Pyongyang, according to the report.
EU-Ukraine - German Chancellor Merz has written to EU institutional leaders proposing associate membership for Ukraine, under which Kyiv would participate in EU meetings without voting rights, appoint an associate judge to the European Court of Justice, and gain access to the EU budget on a step-by-step basis. Merz rejected the characterisation of the proposal as second-tier membership, stressing that Ukraine’s formal accession process would continue.
Cuba - The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its escort warships entered the southern Caribbean on 20th May, as part of the Trump administration’s campaign to pressure Cuba, US Southern Command said. The deployment is intended as a show of force rather than a platform for major military operations, analysts note.

TECH

Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia shares edged lower in extended trading, despite beating expectations and giving upbeat guidance, amid lofty investor expectations. Some suggested the tech giants’ sales guidance was disappointing, citing mounting competition from rival chipmakers in the AI space, while others pointed to NVDA’s remarks that uncertainty remains over whether any imports will be allowed into China. Q1 2027 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.87 (exp. 1.75), Revenue 81.615bln (exp. 78.78bln). Data centre revenue 75.2bln (exp. 73.48bln), Hyperscale revenue 37.87bln and AI Clouds, Industrial and Enterprise revenue 37.38bln, while adj. gross margin was 75.0% (exp. 75.1%). Nvidia said Blackwell demand drove the fastest product ramp in its history, with partner data centres above ten megawatts nearly doubling in one year, and said Vera Rubin remains on track for production shipments in H2 2026, starting in Q3, though it expects to be supply-constrained throughout Vera Rubin’s life. Increased its quarterly dividend to 0.25/shr (from 0.01) and approved an additional USD 80bln share repurchase authorisation, after returning about USD 20.0bln to shareholders in Q1. Nvidia said no Data Centre Hopper shipments to China occurred in the quarter, and it remains uncertain whether any imports will be allowed into China. Sees Q2 revenue at 89.18-92.82bln (exp. 86.79bln), sees Q2 adj. gross margin between 74.5-75.5% (exp. 75.0%), and sees Q2 adj. operating expenses about 8.3bln (exp. 7.93bln). Meanwhile, Nvidia is reportedly discussing system-level optimisations for some Vera Rubin configurations after memory prices surged and memory took an excessively high share of the bill of materials, according to Citrini's Jukan. Said the changes could reduce system DDR memory, likely LPDDR, while leaving HBM capacity unchanged.
Intuit Inc. (INTU) Q3 26 (USD): Adj. EPS 12.80 (exp. 12.57), Revenue 8.56bln (exp. 8.54bln). Pre-tax profit 4.047bln (exp. 4.604bn). Operating income 4.02bln (exp. 4.625bln). Reducing full-time workforce by 17% to simplify organizational structure. To incur about USD 300-340mln in restructuring charges, largely recognized in Q4. Board approved new USD 8bln buyback and maintained dividend of USD 1.20/shr. Outlook: Raised FY26 adj. EPS view to 23.80-23.85 (exp. 23.22, prev. 22.98-23.18) and raised FY26 revenue view to 21.341-21.374bln (exp. 21.42bln, prev. 21.0-21.20bln), Q4 adj. EPS view 3.56-3.62 (exp. 3.14). CEO said Turbo Tax was a "tale of two cities" in Q3. It gained share with upper income clients, but lost share in the lower income cohort. Intuit "significantly decreased" management layers with its 17% workforce reduction, he noted. Stifel lowered its INTU PT to USD 375 (prev. 500) and kept a 'Buy' rating on the shares. The firm said shares shares traded lower in after-hours as TurboTax's 7% growth in Q3 fell far short of greater than 10% buyside expectations and management was unwilling to specifically endorse its 15%-20% long-term guidance range in response to a conference call question. The stock likely settles into a trading range, but "a rebound will take time as investors contemplate the future growth rate".
Samsung (SSNLF) - Samsung Electronics’ largest union, representing nearly 48,000 workers, suspended a planned strike after reaching a tentative pay agreement, with members voting on the deal from 22-27th May 2026. Samsung’s shares rose sharply on the news, while South Korea’s KOSPI also jumped.
AMD (AMD) - AMD has begun production ramp of its 6th Gen EPYC processor codenamed “Venice” on TSMC’s 2nm process technology in Taiwan, with plans to extend production to TSMC’s Arizona facility. AMD described it as the first high-performance computing product in the industry to reach production on 2nm technology. The company also announced a follow-on processor, “Verano,” optimised for cloud and AI workloads and featuring LPDDR memory integration. AMD announced over USD 10bln in investments across Taiwan to expand advanced packaging and AI infrastructure capabilities through partnerships with ASE, SPIL and other ecosystem players. The company is developing next-generation chip packaging and interconnect technologies aimed at improving AI system performance and efficiency. AMD said the efforts will support the deployment of its Helios rack-scale AI platform in the second half of 2026.
AI Regulation - The White House’s forthcoming AI and cybersecurity executive order will designate a coalition of national security and civilian agencies to increase scrutiny of advanced AI models, Politico reports. Industry officials began receiving details on the directive on Tuesday night, with the order expected as early as Thursday.
Palantir (PLTR) - Palantir is fighting the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency for the right to bid on modernising its data analytics system, Axios reports. Palantir said DIA is wasting taxpayer money by building MARS from scratch instead of considering a commercial solution. A senior Trump national security official said any company should be able to compete.
Anthropic - Anthropic expects Q2 revenue of USD 10.9bln, up roughly 130% from USD 4.8bln in Q1, alongside its first operating profit of USD 559mln, according to the WSJ. The figures were shared with investors as part of an ongoing funding round, which is likely to push Anthropic’s valuation above OpenAI’s.
Nebius (NBIS), Bloom Energy (BE) - Nebius and Bloom Energy agreed to deploy Bloom’s fuel-cell technology to power Nebius’ AI infrastructure build-out. The systems will provide behind-the-meter electricity, reduce reliance on new transmission and shorten time-to-power. The first project, with 328MW of installed capacity, is expected to be operational this year, eliminating gas turbines at the site.
Quantum - US is reportedly set to award quantum computing firms USD 2bln and take equity stakes, WSJ reports; Companies include: IBM (IBM), GlobalFoundries (GFS), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), Infleqtion (INFQ), Diraq, Atom Computing, PsiQuantum, and Quantinuum.
IBM (IBM) - IBM and the US Commerce Department announce the US's first purpose-built quantum foundry, supported by a proposed USD 1bln chips award.
GlobalFoundries (GFS) - Launched a new Quantum Technology Solutions business focused on scaling manufacturing for utility-scale quantum computing. The company said it will produce quantum processors, cryogenic control chips and advanced packaging technologies, supported by existing customer engagements and US government partnerships. The US Department of Commerce also signed a letter of intent to award GFS USD 375mln to help expand the initiative.
Microsoft (MSFT) - Said organisations are jointly investing USD 1bln+ in a new initiative to accelerate enterprise AI transformation.
Cognizant (CTSH) - Announced that it has entered into accelerated share repurchase agreements to repurchase an aggregate of USD 500mln of Class A common stock.
Mobileye (MBLY) - Downgraded at Berenberg to 'Hold' from 'Buy' with a USD 10.90 PT (prev. 9.30). The firm believes Mobileye's near-term risk-reward is now more balanced. Berenberg still sees several potential positive catalysts for the stock but says timing remains uncertain.
Kyndryl Holdings (KD) - Downgraded at Susquehanna to 'Neutral' from 'Positive 'with a USD 13 PT (prev. 16). While stating that Kyndryl has "come a long way" since it spun out of IBM (IBM), the firm said there have been "more challenging signs in the last year." Signings have declined for three consecutive quarters and 2024 targets "seem illusive," noting that Kyndryl management has discuss that it has been difficult to ring-fence the client attrition to its former parent IBM.
Applied Digital (APLD) - Signed a 15-year lease agreement with the same US-based hyperscaler from its Delta Forge 1 project for its new Polaris Forge 3 AI campus. The deal is valued at about USD 7.5bln in base-term revenue, or up to USD 18.2bln including options, and brings the company’s total contracted lease revenue across four AI campuses to USD 31bln. Polaris Forge 3 is designed to support 300 MW of IT load backed by roughly 430 MW of utility power.
Uber (UBER) - Signed a partnership with India’s JSW Group to develop and deploy electric vehicles tailored for the country’s ride-hailing market. The companies said the collaboration aims to accelerate EV adoption in India.

COMMUNICATIONS

Alphabet (GOOG) - Alphabet is opening a new USD 15bln data centre in Montgomery County, Missouri, accompanied by a capacity commitment framework agreement with Ameren to support development of more than 500 megawatts of additional capacity.
Alphabet (GOOG), TransUnion (TRU) - TransUnion and Google announced an integration allowing marketers to measure YouTube advertising within TransUnion’s Multi-Touch Attribution solution. The capability connects YouTube ad exposure to business outcomes and lets advertisers compare its performance with the rest of their media mix.
AT&T (T) - AT&T is committing USD 19bln to California’s fibre and wireless networks by end of 2030, its largest-ever infrastructure investment in the state. The company reiterated all 2026 and multi-year financial guidance and capital return plans.
Telus (TU) - Plans to invest more than USD 24bln over the next five years to expand and improve its network infrastructure across Ontario. The investment is part of the company’s broader USD 66bln Canada-wide infrastructure commitment through 2030.
Meta (META) - Manus is considering raising USD 1bln to unwind the Meta takeover, Bloomberg reports.
Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META) - EU consumer groups filed complaints against Google, Meta and TikTok, alleging the platforms failed to adequately protect users from financial scams, Reuters reported. The complaints were submitted under the EU’s Digital Services Act, increasing regulatory pressure on Big Tech to combat harmful and fraudulent content.
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Democratic Senators have raised serious concerns about a plan to include sovereign wealth funds in the proposed Paramount (PSKY) and Warner Brothers (WBD) merger, according to a letter cited.
iHeartMedia (IHRT), Netflix (NFLX)- Companies announced that The Breakfast Club will begin streaming live on Netflix each weekday starting June 1. The show will continue airing on the radio, while Netflix viewers will get exclusive bonus content during commercial breaks.
NetEase (NTES) Q1 2026 (USD): Revenue 4.4bln (exp. 4.2bln), EPS 2.53 (exp. 2.10). Games and related value-added services net revenues were RMB25.7bln (USD 3.7bln), an increase of 6.9% compared with the same quarter of 2025.
BT Group (BTGOF) - Reported FY2025/26 adj. revenue of GBP 19.65bln (prev. 20.37bln) and pre-tax profit of GBP 1.44bln (prev. 1.33bln). The company reiterated guidance of sustained growth and guided FY27 adj. revenue of GBP 19-19.5bln and adj. EBITDA of GBP 8.2-8.3bln.

FINANCIALS

Bond Yields - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that interest rates could climb significantly higher, citing a potential shift from a savings glut to insufficient savings. Dimon noted that with USD 30tln in US government debt at an average rate of 3.5%, refinancing at lower rates is not feasible.
JPMorgan (JPM) - CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank will likely hire more AI specialists and fewer traditional bankers in certain categories as AI adoption accelerates, adding that the technology would ultimately reduce overall headcount.

REAL ESTATE

AvalonBay (AVB), Equity Residential (EQR) - AvalonBay and Equity Residential are nearing a deal to combine two of the biggest apartment REITs by market value, Bloomberg reports. The terms would give AvalonBay shareholders 2.793 Equity Residential shares for each AvalonBay share. A transaction could be announced as soon as Thursday, sources said.

INDUSTRIALS

SpaceX (SPCX) - SpaceX filed for a Nasdaq IPO under the ticker SPCX; the listing is targeted as early as 12th June. The filing revealed a Q1 2026 revenue of USD 4.69bln and adj. EBITDA of USD 1.13bln, alongside an operating loss of USD 1.94bln driven largely by heavy AI and Starship investment. Starlink-led Connectivity remained the profit engine, generating USD 3.26bln in revenue and USD 2.09bln in adj. EBITDA, while the AI segment posted a USD 2.47bln operating loss on aggressive infrastructure spending. Capital expenditures were heavily concentrated in AI at USD 7.72bln in Q1, far exceeding Space (USD 1.05bln) and Connectivity (USD 1.33bln).Q1 net loss of USD 4.28bln. SpaceX had USD 18.7bln revenue in FY25. The company targets raising up to USD 75bln in its initial sale, at a roughly USD 1.75tln valuation; it would make it the largest stock market flotation ever. Elon Musk’s super-voting shares gives him 85.1% voting power. SpaceX estimate that quantifiable TAM is USD 28.5tln, consisting of USD 370bln in Space from space-enabled solutions; USD 1.6tln in Connectivity across USD 870bln in Starlink Broadband and USD 740bln in Starlink Mobile as well as additional opportunities in enterprise and government; USD 26.5 tln in AI across USD 2.4tln in AI infrastructure, USD 760bln in consumer subscriptions, USD 600bln in digital advertising, and USD 22.7tln in enterprise applications."
Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Entered an equity distribution agreement to sell up to USD 3bln of common stock.
Deere & Company (DE) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 6.55 (exp. 5.70), Revenue 13.4bln (exp. 11.55bln), Equipment sales: 11.8bln (exp. 11.4bln), Net Income 1.77bln (exp. 1.55bln). Maintained FY26 net income view of 4.5-5.0bln.
Nordson (NDSN) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.86 (exp. 2.85), Revenue 741mln (exp. 733.29mln); sees Q3 adj. EPS at 2.95-3.15 (exp. 3.06) and Q3 revenue of 760-790mln (exp. 769.54mln). Raised FY26 EPS view to 11.30-11.80 (exp. 11.45, prev. 11.00-11.60) and raised FY26 revenue view to 2.93-3.01bln (exp. 2.95bln, prev. 2.86-2.98bln).

HEALTHCARE

Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly's triple agonist, retatrutide, delivered powerful weight loss in pivotal Phase 3 obesity trial. In TRIUMPH-1, participants on 12 mg retatrutide lost an average of 70.3 lbs (28.3%) over 80 weeks with 45.3% of participants achieving ≥30% weight loss, a level long associated with bariatric surgery. Individuals with a baseline BMI ≥35 who participated in a study extension continued to lose weight, and achieved up to an average of 85.0 lbs (30.3%) weight loss at 104 weeks
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Said China approved its nipocalimab treatment for generalized myasthenia gravis in patients aged 12 and older. The drug has already been approved in markets including the US, Brazil and Japan.

MATERIALS

USA Rare Earth (USAR) - Announced that the US Department of Energy has selected it to receive up to USD 19.3mln in funding, subject to final negotiation, under DOE's "Critical Materials Innovation, Efficiency and Alternatives" program. The award will support the development of a pilot-scale rare earth element separations project advancing domestic processing capacity for materials essential to US energy, defense and advanced manufacturing supply chains.
KGHM Polska Miedz (KGHPF) - KGHM Polska Miedz, the EU’s largest copper producer, is pursuing acquisitions in Europe, Africa and the Americas to expand output, its CEO told Bloomberg. KGHM is evaluating assets in Chile, Argentina, the US and Canada, with a final decision expected within several months. The company aims to add around 100,000 tons of annual production closer to home to supplement its existing Polish output of approximately 390,000 tons.

ENERGY

Crude Prices - A Bloomberg survey found that a majority expect Brent crude to average USD 81-100/bbl over the next 12 months, with nearly two-thirds seeing a lasting geopolitical risk premium of USD 5-15/bbl for years ahead. Demand destruction was identified as the most likely mechanism to offset supply deficits, with most respondents expecting global supply disruptions of 3-7mln BPD.
Global Crude Stocks - Global crude oil and product stockpiles are declining at a record pace of 8.7mln BPD so far in May, almost double the average rate since the Middle East conflict began, according to a Goldman Sachs.
Devon Energy (DVN) - Accounted for over half of a record USD 4bln US federal oil and gas lease sale in New Mexico and Texas, according to the Bureau of Land Management. The auction marked the largest onshore leasing sale to date, driven by strong industry demand for drilling rights on public lands.
Occidental Petroluem (OXY) - Upgraded at Goldman Sachs to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' with a USD 64 PT (prev. 57). The firm is citing meaningful progress on lowering absolute debt following asset sales and higher oil prices, the company's continued execution strength and progress on reducing its capital intensity and operating cost structure, as well as the management's strategic focus on improving efficiencies and harvesting free cash flow rather than incremental resource replacement through M&A.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Tesla (TSLA) - Tesla has generated approximately USD 890mln in revenue from SpaceX and xAI since 2023, according to a regulatory filing. The filing disclosed that SpaceX and xAI purchased around USD 131mln worth of Tesla Cybertrucks last year, highlighting the extent of commercial ties across Elon Musk’s business interests. Elsewhere, Tesla launched its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system in China on 21st May, a week after CEO Musk visited Beijing alongside President Trump.
Elf Beauty (ELF) - Shares rose in extended trading after it topped expectations on both revenue and profit, and also announced plans to reverse some tariff-driven price increases in acknowledgement of consumer pressure. Q4 2026 (USD): EPS 0.32 (exp. 0.29), Revenue 449.3mln (exp. 423.0mln). The CEO said all five of its brands grew. The CEO said that Elf Beauty will roll back some tariff-driven price increases after seeing unit degradation and a steeper demand pullback in recent months, saying the company wants to reinforce its value proposition as consumers face higher costs. Sees FY27 EPS between 3.27-3.32 (exp. 3.61), sees FY27 revenue between USD 1.835-1.865bln (exp. 1.86bln).
Ralph Lauren (RL) Q4 2026 (USD): EPS 2.45 (exp. 2.53), Revenue 2.0bln (exp. 1.84bln). Global direct-to-consumer comparable store sales up 17% in Q4, 13% for FY2026. Outlook fiscal 2027 constant currency REVs to increase by about mid-single digits. For Q1, expects REVs to increase by about mid- to high-single digits compared to last year on a constant currency basis. Increased quarterly dividend by 10% to USD 1.00/shr.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) Q1 2026 EPS 1.30 (exp. 1.14), Revenue 1.48bln (exp. 1.46bln).
Nio (NIO) Q1 2026 (CNY): Adj. EPS 0.02 (exp. -0.34), Revenue 25.53bln (exp. 25.57bln), net income 43.5mln. Deliveries rose 98.3% Y/Y to 83,465 vehicles. April deliveries were 29,356 vehicles, taking 2026 year-to-date deliveries to 112,821. The CEO said NIO had entered an intensive new product launch and delivery cycle. CFO said four straight quarters of vehicle margin improvement and positive adj. operating profit. Sees Q2 deliveries between 110,000-115,000 vehicles and sees Q2 revenue between USD 4.752-4.992bln
Kontoor Brands (KTB) - To sell Lee for up to USD 1bln and expected to close in H2 '26.

CONSUMER STAPLES

Walmart (WMT) Q1 2027 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.66 (exp. 0.66), Revenue 177.8bln (exp. 174.72bln); reiterates outlook for FY27. US comp. sales 4.1% (exp. 4.1%). Q2 Guidance: Net sales expected 4-5%, Adj. operating income 7-10%, adj. EPS 0.72-0.74 (exp. 0.75). CFO said consumers may feel more strain as the effect of tax returns goes away in Q2. CFO warned of potential higher retail price inflation in Q2 and H2 if the current elevated cost environment persists. An executive now expects FY27 revenue to be towards the upper end of the 3.5-4.5% guidance range.
Target (TGT) - Downgraded at Freedom to 'Hold' from 'Buy' with a USD 130 PT (prev. 145). The firm notes that Target reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results, but one quarter is insufficient to underwrite a sustained earnings inflexion. Freedom said Target's fiscal 2026 remains a transition year, with tougher comparisons, reinvestments, and limited near-term margin expansion. It says the stock's upside is balanced at current levels.

TRADE

UK Tariffs - UK Chancellor Reeves is set to announce targeted cuts to agrifood tariffs expected to save consumers more than GBP 150mln annually, FT reports. She is also expected to announce free summer bus travel for children, and a GBP 400mln package for motorists and hauliers, including a postponed 5p fuel duty rise and a 12-month road tax holiday for hauliers saving up to GBP 912 per vehicle. Energy bill support for the poorest households will not begin until October, the report suggests.
Japan Trade - Japan’s trade balance recorded a surplus of JPY 301.9bln (USD 1.9bln) in April on an unadjusted basis (exp. deficit of JPY 44.5bln), marking a third consecutive monthly surplus driven by strong exports and a sharp decline in energy imports.
South Korea Trade - South Korea’s adjusted exports rose 52.6% in the first 20 days of May (prev. 49.4% in the equivalent April period), with chip exports surging 202.1% and computer-related shipments up 305.5% Y/Y. Unadjusted shipments rose 64.8%, with imports up 29.3%, yielding a trade surplus of USD 11bln. Nomura said it expects export growth to remain strong through Q2 and Q3, though largely reflecting price effects.
UK Agri Tariffs - UK Chancellor Reeves is set to announce targeted cuts to agrifood tariffs expected to save consumers more than GBP 150mln annually; she is also expected to give free summer bus travel for children, and a GBP 400mln package for motorists and hauliers, including a postponed 5p fuel duty rise and a 12-month road tax holiday for hauliers saving up to GBP 912 per vehicle. Energy bill support for the poorest households will not begin until October.

MACRO

Fed Minutes Recap - Minutes from the April FOMC meeting revealed that a majority of officials indicated rate hikes would likely become appropriate if inflation remained persistently above 2%. Markets now price nearly 50% probability of at least one 25bps hike by year-end.
BoJ - The BoJ is consulting banks, securities firms and institutional investors on the pace of tapering its bond purchases, with feedback to inform a review at the 15-16th June policy board meeting. The central bank currently plans to buy around JPY 2.7tln this month and is reducing purchases by approximately JPY 200bln per quarter until March 2027.
BoJ - BoJ board member Koeda signalled support for continued rate hikes, citing the possibility that underlying inflation could exceed 2% ahead; analysts said the remarks add to signs that a move could come as early as next month.
Aussie Jobs - Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in April (exp. 4.3%; prev. 4.3%), its highest since November 2021, while employment fell by -18,600 (exp. +15,000), the biggest miss since June last year. The data prompted traders to pare back expectations for further RBA rate hikes, with the AUD and 3yr government bond yields both declining in response.
RBI - The RBI is considering measures including an interest rate hike, additional currency swaps, and raising dollars from overseas investors to stabilise the INR, Bloomberg reports. Governor Malhotra and other RBI officials have held a series of internal meetings following the INR’s decline to fresh lows this week; further reports overnight suggested that the central bank sold dollars in the offshore market.