Daily US Equity Opening News - SPCX after results, TSLA talks; SMCI raises outlook; BA 737 MAX 10 receives FAA certification; UAL earnings/outlook miss; NFLX down on weak guidance

• EVENTS: White House envoy Witkoff will meet Russian President Putin in St. Petersburg to present an updated Ukraine peace proposal following talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky.
• DATA: In North America, weekly US MBA mortgage applications are due (prev. -2.7%).
• CENTRAL BANKS: BoE Governor Bailey speaks on central bank independence in an era of financial instability; ECB President Lagarde joins an on-stage conversation; ECB chief economist Lane participates on a panel; ECB’s Cipollone will deliver a presentation.
• SUPPLY: US auctions USD 13bln of 20yr bonds.
• ENERGY: EIA weekly energy inventories and crude production data. Afterhours on Tuesday, weekly API inventory data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a larger than expected draw of -4.9mln bbls (exp. -1.1mln), though Cushing stocks built by +0.9mln; gasoline inventories also saw a larger than expected draw of -2.0mln bbls (exp. -0.7mln), as did distillate stocks at -2.6mln (exp. -1.6mln).
• EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting today includes: Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCX), Philip Morris (PM), Thermo Fisher (TMO), Texas Instruments (TXN), IBM (IBM), Abbott (ABT), NextEra (NEE), Danaher (DHR), AT&T (T), CME (CME), Elevance (ELV), CSX (CSX), Moody’s (MCO), Kinder Morgan (KMI), United Rentals (URI), Westinghouse (WAB), Crown Castle (CCI), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Packaging of America (PKG), Southwest Airlines (LUV).

• RBA - RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warned Australia’s inflation outlook was “materially worse” than August forecasts, citing higher oil and technology prices and data centre construction. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said his remarks were “clearly hawkish”, and the bank now expects a November rate hike to 4.85% (prev. saw a hold). Traders also raised the probability of a November rate hike to 50% (prev. around 30%).
• ECB - ECB chief economist Lane said greater global use of the EUR could help the ECB control inflation by extending monetary policy’s reach. More than 30 central banks have shown interest in EUR liquidity facilities.
• German Borrowing - Germany's Federal Finance Agency Director said annual borrowing will likely remain above EUR 500bln over the medium term due to defence and infrastructure spending, Econostream reports. He also warned that unconditional European support measures aimed at calming sovereign bond markets could trigger a more serious debt crisis in the future.
• BoJ - BoJ’s Deputy Governor Himino said upside inflation risks remain high, and delaying monetary policy adjustments could harm the economy. Underlying inflation is nearing the 2% target, while medium- and long-term inflation expectations continue rising. Financial conditions remain accommodative despite rate hikes, with low real interest rates and strong lending growth. He also added that AI demand is boosting exports and capex.
• UK Inflation - UK CPI rose to an 11-month high of 3.5% Y/Y in September (exp. 3.4%; prev. 3.1%), driven by a surge in petrol and diesel costs. Core CPI rose to 2.8% Y/Y (exp. 2.7%; prev. 2.6%), while services inflation climbed to 3.7% Y/Y, putting the BOE on track for its first rate hike since 2023 at its 5th November confab.

• US-Mexico - US-Mexico trade talks have stalled over steel and aluminium tariffs, according to the WSJ. Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s counterproposal reportedly failed to address Mexico’s demands for relief from 50% metals tariffs and duties on derivative products. Progress may be delayed until after the 3rd November midterms, while Mexico also seeks lower vehicle tariffs, the report adds.
• US-India - US President Trump said a trade deal with India is “pretty close” after more than a year of negotiations.
• Japan - Japan’s September exports rose 16.7% Y/Y (exp. 20.1%; prev. 19.3%), while imports increased 18.9% Y/Y (exp. 19.6%; prev. 28.0%). Semiconductor exports surged 49.4%, chipmaking equipment 43.9% and car exports 15.1%. The trade deficit narrowed to JPY 536bln (vs JPY 1.1tln in August).
• UK-China - UK Business Secretary Reynolds said Britain is open to discussing tariffs on Chinese EVs with the EU, but will act only in the UK’s interests. The government seeks access to the EU’s Made in Europe procurement scheme ahead of the 20th November summit. China has threatened countermeasures if restrictions are imposed.

• SpaceX (SPCX) - SpaceX shares rose 9.3% in extended trading after a sharp increase in AI revenue drove a swing to profit, while stronger-than-expected Starlink growth and formal merger discussions with Tesla added to the upside. Q3 EPS 0.35 (exp. 0.16), Q3 revenue +161% Y/Y at USD 14.575bln (exp. 13bln). Execs said growth was driven by Connectivity and an inflection in the Super Intelligence business. Starlink reached 13.6mln consumer subscribers, with 11,100 satellites in orbit; SpaceX completed 113 launches YTD through September, and delivered 1,517 tonnes to orbit. Management said it expects roughly 2.5-3GW of compute online by end-2026 and is targeting at least 13GW by end-2027, while Starship is expected to reach weekly launches in H1 2027 and potentially twice-weekly launches in H2. Sees Q4 capex between USD 35-40bln and Q4 gross margin broadly consistent with Q2. Sees Q1 revenue between USD 33-37bln.
• SpaceX (SPCX), Tesla (TSLA) - SpaceX/Tesla CEO Musk said SpaceX and Tesla have formed independent special committees to discuss a potential merger, though no terms have been agreed and there is no guarantee of a transaction.
• Boeing (BA) - Boeing’s 737 Max 10 received FAA certification following lengthy delays, positioning its largest single-aisle jet against Airbus’s A321neo. The aircraft has over 1,500 orders, including from United Airlines and Alaska Air. Boeing expects Canadian and European regulatory approvals within a couple of months.
• United Airlines (UAL) - United Airlines shares fell after quarterly earnings missed expectations and Q4 profit guidance came in below consensus, outweighing strong revenue trends across premium, loyalty, cargo and business travel. Q3 adj. EPS 2.54 (exp. 2.58), Q3 revenue USD 17.9bln (exp. 17.88bln). Capacity +1.3% Y/Y, TRASM +15.9%, CASM +17.3% and CASM-ex +7.8%. Premium revenue +17% Y/Y, Basic Economy +16%, loyalty +17%, cargo +23% and contracted business revenue +26%, economy cabin unit revenue +17%. Trailing 12-month net leverage was 2.4x, with total debt, finance lease obligations and other financial liabilities of USD 26.4bln. CEO Kirby said results demonstrated the resilience of United’s strategy of building a brand-loyal airline. Sees Q4 adj. EPS between 0.50-1.50 (exp. 1.75), operating revenue growth above 20% Y/Y and accelerating unit revenue growth Q/Q; every USD 0.01 change in fuel price equates to approximately 0.025 of quarterly EPS impact. Sees FY26 adj. capex around USD 7.5bln.
• Alaska Air (ALK) - Q3 adj. EPS 0.36 (exp. 0.28), Q3 revenue USD 4.31bln (exp. 4.32bln). Capacity +2.4% Y/Y, RASM +11.7% and CASM-ex +4.4%. CEO said the company is executing on growth in premium, international, cargo and Atmos Rewards, while focusing on widening the spread between unit revenue and non-fuel unit costs. Sees Q4 adj. EPS between -2.50 and -2.00 (exp. -1.17), capacity +1-1.5% Y/Y, RASM up low double-digits, CASM-ex up mid-single-digits and economic fuel cost between USD 4.65-4.85/gallon. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between -5.50 and -5.00 (exp. -3.47), including USD 1.8bln of fuel expense above plan.
• L3Harris Technologies (LHX) - L3Harris opened its Arsenal of Freedom solid rocket motor facility in Camden, Arkansas, designed to double current capacity. The plant will support the US Army’s Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, and forms part of a USD 216mln agreement with the Department of War to expand tactical missile production, including Javelin and Stinger.

• US Data Centres - US President Trump said new large data centres must generate their own electricity and supply or sell excess power to local communities or the grid. He suggested companies pay communities or residents dividends to secure local support, arguing that such arrangements could reduce electricity prices and help get projects built.
• US Semiconductor Production - President Trump said the Pentagon will invest USD 1.5bln to expand semiconductor production in North Carolina. The investments support the administration’s push to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the US. Trump also announced plans for Sibelco to build a major manufacturing facility in the state; Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed it would focus on quartz production.
• China Smartphone Shipments - China’s smartphone shipments fell 22.9% Y/Y in September, according to CAICT. Rising memory and component costs pushed device prices higher, weakening consumer demand and extending replacement cycles. IDC meanwhile expects no market rebound in Q4, with shipment pressure potentially persisting through much of 2027.
• Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia is in talks to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in Australian AI cloud provider Firmus Grid following its abandoned IPO, according to The Information. Nvidia is already an investor in Firmus, which struggled to attract global investors amid growing concerns over AI valuations. The company is considering alternative funding options.
• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF), SK Hynix (SKHY) - Samsung and SK Hynix are upgrading Chinese plants to produce more advanced NAND chips, according to Reuters. Samsung targets 286-layer production at Xi’an by 2027, while SK Hynix eyes 240-plus-layer chips at Dalian. Both face US equipment licensing restrictions as they seek to meet AI demand and compete with China’s YMTC.
• Anthropic - Anthropic’s H1 revenue rose to USD 16.3bln (prev. 1.1bln Y/Y), while it reported a USD 80.7bln net loss, mostly from accounting charges, the WSJ reports. Around one-fifth of revenue came from just two customers; computing commitments involving Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Nscale (NSCL) and Lambda exceed USD 600bln. It could spend up to USD 750bln on computing capacity. WSJ says it is targeting a USD 2tln IPO valuation.
• OpenAI - OpenAI says its AI agents weakened or disabled internal monitoring alerts designed to flag model misbehaviour during two coding tasks. The company is investigating whether the incidents indicate a broader tendency to evade oversight. No external parties were identified as impacted, and it plans stricter safety measures.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) - Shares surged almost 17% in extended trading after it sharply raised its Q1 outlook on stronger AI platform demand, and also lifted its gross margin guidance. Sees Q1 net sales between USD 18.5-19.5bln (exp. 14.99bln; prev. saw 14.5-15.5bln), driven primarily by increased demand for AI platforms. Sees Q1 adj. gross margin between 12.0-12.5% (prev. saw 10.4%-10.8%), primarily reflecting customer and product mix.
• Micron (MU) - Micron has reached a labour-management agreement with its Taichung union, with both parties agreeing to withdraw from the mediation process scheduled for 22nd October.
• Microsoft (MSFT) - Microsoft’s Xbox CEO Asha Sharma is restructuring the gaming division amid weak margins and declining console sales, according to Fortune. She has cut 1,868 jobs already as part of a planned 3,200 cuts, is overhauling Game Pass, and targeting handheld and console launches in 2027 and 2028, respectively. Despite spinoff speculation, Microsoft executives maintain Xbox remains strategically important, the article adds.
• TSMC (TSM) - TSMC is suspending some construction work after an accident killed four workers at its Kaohsiung site in southern Taiwan.

• Netflix (NFLX) - Netflix shares fell 5.6% in extended trading after it reported its slowest revenue growth in three years, and issued a weaker Q4 outlook, citing slower advertising growth, plateauing viewership and intensifying competition. Q3 EPS 0.87 (exp. 0.82), Q3 revenue USD 14.6bln (exp. 12.87bln). Management said retention remains healthy across all regions and recent price increases have performed in line with expectations. US engagement was solid, but still has room to improve. Ended Q3 with USD 15.3bln of gross debt, and USD 8.2bln of cash and cash equivalents, with USD 22.3bln remaining under its share repurchase authorisation. Sees Q4 EPS of 0.67 (exp. 0.73) and Q4 revenue at USD 13.44bln (exp. 13.52bln). Sees FY26 revenue of USD 51.1bln (exp. 51.21bln; prev. saw 51.0-51.4bln), operating margin 31.5%, and operating income growth of more than 20%; FY26 advertising revenue is now expected at approximately USD 2.7bln (vs approx USD 3.0bln previously), due to a slower rollout of some advertising product capabilities. Management expects strong revenue growth and aims to sustain double-digit revenue growth in 2027.
• Zoom Communications (ZM) - Zoom targets FY30 revenue growth of +6-8%, adj. gross margin of approximately 80%, and adj. operating margin of approximately 40%. For FY26, expects revenue growth of 4.4%, adj. gross margin of 80% and adj. operating margin of 40%.
• Getty Images (GETY) - Getty filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Delaware as part of a restructuring that will take the company private. The plan includes up to USD 533mln in fresh equity from investors including the Getty family and Koch Equity Development.

• Capital One Financial (COF) - Capital One shares rose 3.4% in extended trading after quarterly earnings beat expectations, revenue came in slightly ahead, NIM improved, and credit loss provisions declined, while management said the Discover integration was progressing well. Q3 adj. EPS 6.69 (exp. 5.50), Q3 revenue USD 16.3bln (exp. 16.25bln). NIM expanded to 8.41% (from 8.01% in Q2), while provision for credit losses declined to USD 2.9bln (vs USD 3.0bln in Q2). CEO Fairbank said the Discover integration continues to progress well, with good momentum on delivering expected synergies; it continues to invest for sustained long-term growth and value creation.
• Chubb (CB) - Chubb shares slipped in extended trading after it reported Q3 core EPS of USD 7.66 (exp. 6.80), and consolidated net premiums written of USD 15.14bln (prev. 14.87bln). CEO Greenberg highlighted strong contributions across all businesses, with diversification supporting growth and sustained margins.
• BNP Paribas (BNPQY) - Belgium’s government faces internal pressure to sell its 5.7% stake in BNP Paribas, valued at approximately EUR 5.4bln, according to Bloomberg. A sale is not expected imminently and would likely follow other divestments, including a planned 20% Belfius stake sale by year-end.
• Deutsche Boerse (DBOEY) - Q3 adj. EPS EUR 3.28 (exp. 3.11) revenue EUR 1.63bln (exp. 1.60bln); raised FY26 net revenue view to above EUR 6.5bln (prev. saw above 6.4bln), EBITDA view to around EUR 3.9bln (prev. saw above 3.8bln) and treasury result seen above EUR 800mln (prev. above 700mln).

• Oil Product Tightness - Morgan Stanley said oil product markets are expected to remain tight through mid-2027 despite any easing of war-related disruptions. Planned refinery outages through Q2 2027 are set to rise by 3.4mln BPD, 2.5x normal levels, and exceeding current refinery-run cuts in the Middle East and Russia.
• TechnipFMC (FTI), BP (BP) - TechnipFMC signed an MoU with a BP subsidiary to cooperate on supplying 20K psi subsea production systems for BP’s Paleogene projects in the Gulf of Mexico.
• Shell (SHEL), Equinor (EQNR) - The UK government approved the Jackdaw North Sea gas field; the Energy Minister said the project could begin supplying gas to British homes and businesses as early as the end of October.
• Weatherford International (WFRD) - Weatherford reported Q3 EPS of USD 1.66 (exp. 1.27), Q3 revenue of USD 1.14bln (exp. 1.13bln). Adj. EBITDA margin expanded 204bps Q/Q to 22.2%, while adj. free cash flow reached USD 155mln. Middle East conflict-related disruptions weighed on activity.

• Akzo Nobel (AKZOY) - Reported Q3 revenue of EUR 2.54bln (exp. 2.64bln), adj. EBITDA of EUR 388mln (exp. 392.5mln) and adj. operating profit of EUR 297mln (exp. 297mln); sees FY26 adj. EBITDA of around EUR 1.47bln, reflecting an approximately EUR 100mln improvement in constant currencies.

• Starbucks (SBUX) - Starbucks will require customers to make a purchase to sit in its cafes across China from 22nd October. The policy is part of efforts to revive the company’s performance in the Chinese market.

• Interparfums (IPAR) - Interparfums reported Q3 revenue of USD 430mln (exp. 423.84mln), with YTD sales rising 1%. Strong European sales offset weaker US operations following exceptional Q2 growth. The Middle East conflict represented a 1% headwind in Q3, and 2% over nine months. The company said it is preparing major product launches and new brand additions for 2027.

• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) - Shares fell despite stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue, as a large antitrust settlement charge, challenging conditions in China and expectations for higher input costs overshadowed solid procedure growth and improved margin guidance. Q3 EPS 3.00 (exp. 2.64), Q3 revenue USD 3.05bln (exp. 2.91bln). Worldwide procedures +15% Y/Y, with da Vinci procedures +14% and Ion procedures +31%. The company recorded a USD 450mln antitrust litigation settlement charge in Q3, equal to USD 347mln after tax, or 0.99 per diluted share, subject to court approval and without admission of liability or wrongdoing. Management said the China operating environment remains challenging and continues to expect higher input costs in areas including freight and semiconductor memory. Narrows FY26 da Vinci procedure growth view to between 14-15% (prev. saw 13.5-15.5%), raises FY26 adj. gross profit margin to between 68.7-69.3% (prev. saw 68-69%), and maintains FY26 operating expense growth between 11-13%.
• GSK (GSK) - GSK’s Hibsago (bepirovirsen) received FDA Priority Review and Breakthrough Therapy Designation approval for chronic hepatitis B in adults without cirrhosis alongside nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy. Eligible patients must have received treatment for at least six months, with suppressed HBV DNA and surface antigen levels at or below 3,000 IU/ml.
• Alcon (ALC) - Alcon acquired Neurotech Pharmaceuticals for USD 550mln, expanding its retina portfolio with ENCELTO, an FDA-approved treatment for adults with MacTel. Additional payments may be due upon commercial milestones. Alcon expects the acquisition to be modestly accretive to net sales growth and slightly dilutive to core diluted EPS in 2027, becoming accretive thereafter.
• Zoetis (ZTS) - Zoetis announced FDA approval of Convenia RTU for Dogs to treat susceptible bacterial skin infections.
• Qiagen (QGEN) - EQT is in advanced talks to acquire Qiagen, having submitted a binding offer of over USD 50/shr; rival private equity firm KKR (KKR) has also made a bid. Qiagen, valued at approximately USD 10.2bln, is expected to review potential offers this week, although no deal is guaranteed.

Daily opening wraps of this kind set the session's narrative rather than generate it; the actionable content is the afterhours repricing, and the historical pattern is that moves on mixed results and guidance, rather than the beats themselves, drive the opening breadth. The composition here is the familiar earnings-season split: AI-adjacent names being rewarded on raised outlooks and compute demand, while consumer and media names are punished on guidance quality, a divergence that has recurred through recent reporting cycles and tends to concentrate index performance in a narrowing peer set. The airline prints fit the established template where a guidance miss overwhelms strong revenue detail, since the market prices the forward EPS corridor and fuel sensitivity rather than trailing premium and loyalty growth. The single-name corporate items, the long-delayed aircraft certification and the exploratory merger talks between affiliated companies, follow the usual sequence: certification milestones shift delivery and backlog assumptions gradually, while special-committee formations without terms are optionality, not events, and have historically faded as catalysts until financing and structure emerge. The calendar items worth noting are the energy inventory release against the prior night's larger-than-expected private draw, the long-end supply auction, and a heavy earnings slate spanning mega-cap tech, semis and transports, which typically keeps single-stock dispersion elevated through the close. As a digest rather than a development, the signal lies in which afterhours moves hold the open.