Daily US Equity Opening News - TSM beats amid robust AI demand; UAL slips on soft Q3 view; ABT & UNH Q2 beats

DAY AHEAD:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.4%, NQ -1.1%, YM unch, RUT -0.5%
BROKER MOVES: AVAV upgraded at Raymond James; LULU downgraded at Truist. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: TSM, UAL, JBHT, ATAI, UNH, ABT, DSGR, LULU. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: ANET. For the full list, click here.
DATA: The NAHB housing market index for July (prev. 35), and pending home sales for June (prev. 3.8% M/M). After today’s data releases, the Atlanta Fed will update its GDPNow now tracking estimate for Q2 (is currently tracking growth of 1.3%).
CENTRAL BANKS: Today’s speakers’ slate includes: Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) on the economy; Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter) on the outlook; Fed’s Jefferson (voter) speaks on the outlook.
SUPPLY: US will announce sizes for next week’s 20yr reopening and 10yr TIPS supply.
ENERGY: Weekly EIA natgas storage change data for the week is expected to show a build of 45bcf (prev. 61bcf). WTI August 2026 options expire.
EARNINGS: Notable earnings reports due today include: Netflix (NFLX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).

NEWS

GEOPOLITICS

US-Iran - CENTCOM launched fresh strikes on Iran targeting missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb Island, followed by a subsequent wave hitting air defence sites, missile and drone facilities and coastal surveillance installations. CENTCOM also said it struck the unladen, US-sanctioned super tanker Belma near Iran’s Kharg Island after it allegedly ignored warnings and violated a renewed shipping blockade. The attack was the first on a vessel since the blockade was reimposed.

TECH

South Korea - South Korean financial regulators are preparing rule changes for single-stock leveraged ETFs and plan to prohibit listings of new single-stock leveraged products.
TSMC (TSM) - TSMC reported Q2 net income +36% Y/Y at TWD 706.6bln (exp. TWD 623.7bln), and revenue of TWD 1.27tln (vs prev. 933.8bln Y/Y), as AI infrastructure demand drove robust results. Q2 revenue from high-performance computing +20% Q/Q, revenue from smartphones -4% Q/Q; gross Margin was +9.1% Y/Y at 67.7%. The company has set aside approximately USD 56bln in capex for 2026 and is investing an estimated USD 265bln in its Arizona campus. Execs also noted very strong demand for leading edge technologies, and does not foresee a bottleneck for the capacity expansion plan. AI-related demand remains extremely robust. Expects continued strong demand in Q3; sees Q3 revenue at between USD 44.6-45.8bln (exp. 42.6bln), and sees gross margin between 66-67% (exp. 65.9%). For FY26, TSMC sees capex between 60-64bln (prev. saw 52-56bln); sees FY26 revenue to be slightly above 40% in USD terms (prev. saw above 30%). Separately, A US official noted that TSMC will add another USD 100bln of US investment.
Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia introduced Blackwell-powered T3000 and T2000 Jetson Thor modules for compact, power-efficient robotics, visual AI and edge workloads. Jetson AGX Thor adoption includes 1X, Agile Robots, Amazon Robotics, Boston Dynamics, FANUC, Hitachi and Techman Robot, supported by new software memory optimisation and agent skills. Separately, Japan will buy 27,500 Rubin chips to build AI for robots, Bloomberg reports.
SK Hynix (SKHY) - South Korea’s FX regulator is considering using its stabilisation fund to buy US dollars raised through SK Hynix’s planned ADR issuance. Most proceeds are expected to fund domestic investment, potentially creating a large dollar inflow and prompting over-the-counter purchases via banks to limit USDKRW volatility.
Anthropic - Anthropic is discussing several billion dollars of new bank credit lines to increase liquidity before a planned IPO this year, according to The Information. The financing would supplement its existing USD 2.5bln five-year revolving credit facility, with participating banks potentially also serving as IPO underwriters.
Atlassian (TEAM) - Atlassian launched Jira capabilities for AI-native software development, integrating agents including Claude Code, Cursor and GitHub Copilot with enterprise context, governance and workflow coordination.
SoftBank (SFTBY), Hyundai (HYMPY) - Hyundai and its affiliates are moving to acquire SoftBank’s remaining stake in Boston Dynamics after SoftBank exercised a put option, giving Hyundai full ownership of the robotics firm. Hyundai first acquired a controlling stake from SoftBank in 2021 and is now accelerating the commercialisation of its Atlas humanoid robot.
Uber (UBER) - CEO said he expects high single-digit percentage accretion by year three; expects transaction to be non-GAAP EPS accretive upon close.
Jabil (JBL) - Board authorised the repurchase of up to USD 1.5bln of common stock. CEO said buybacks remain a capital allocation priority and reflect confidence in Jabil’s cash generation, balance sheet and ability to fund growth while returning capital to shareholders.
Wipro (WIT) Q1 2027 (USD): EPS 0.03 (exp. 0.04), Revenue 2.59bln.
Cadence (CDNS) - Launched the AuraStack AI Super Agent for Allegro AI Studio, describing it as the first agentic AI platform for PCB and advanced packaging design. Accelerated by NVIDIA Blackwell, the platform coordinates AI agents across planning, implementation, and analysis to speed electronic system design through manufacturing.
Sharon AI (SHAZ) - To deploy 62k+ Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs by mid-2027.

COMMUNICATIONS

Google (GOOGL) - EU Commission provided guidance to Google for AI interoperability on Android and sharing of Google Search data under the Digital Markets Act. Currently, on Android phones, competitors' AI assistants only have restricted access to key functionalities of the Google Android operating system. Without this access, alternative AI assistants are not competing on an equal footing with Google's own AI services that have full access. Third-party AI assistants are therefore limited in how they can offer their innovative services, making them less attractive to 60% of EU users who have an Android device. Specification decisions are legally binding. Google is required to implement the specified measures under the conditions and timelines included in the decisions. Google must start sharing search data with eligible search engine providers from January 2027. Users will start benefiting from the changes to Android as of July 2027.
Meta Platforms (META) - Meta's Oversight Board said a study found AI models from Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic were less likely to criticize governments with restricted free speech, raising concerns that country-specific moderation rules may introduce bias into widely used AI services.
Imax (IMAX) - Downgraded at Wells Fargo to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' with a USD 41 PT (prev. 47). The firm cites a soft near-term movie slate for the downgrade. Wells dropped its 2026 box office forecast by 11% to USD 9.9bln, driven by a cut to its Q3 estimate. The analyst downgraded both Cinemark and IMAX as a result, seeing a more balanced risk/reward ratio at current share levels. After the Spider-Man release in late July, Wells does not expect another tentpole until October, creating an "air pocket" in August and September. Wells also downgraded Cinemark to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' with a USD 31 PT (prev. 36).
New York Times (NYT) - The NYT filed a motion to quash federal grand jury subpoenas issued to its reporters over a story about security deficiencies in the Qatar-donated Air Force One aircraft (BA), calling the subpoenas “abusive and improper” and brought in bad faith. The subpoenas were issued by the US attorney for the Southern District of New York on 10th July in connection with what prosecutors described as a national security investigation.
Publicis (PUBGY) - H1 revenue EUR 7.23bln (exp. 7.59bln), EBITDA EUR 1.53bln (prev. 1.50bln), EPS EUR 3.17 (prev. 3.28); raised FY organic net revenue growth guidance to 4.5-5% (from 4-5%) and confirmed slight operating margin improvement.

FINANCIALS

Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 1.30 (exp. 1.24), Revenue 2.28bln (exp. 2.25bln); NII 1.63bln, CET1 Ratio 10.4%.
US Bancorp (USB) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 1.35 (exp. 1.28), Revenue 7.71bln (exp. 7.58bln).
State Street (STT) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 3.65 (exp. 3.34), Revenue 4.05bln (exp. 3.88bln); Raised FY26 NII view to +14-15% (prev. +8-10%).
Apollo Global Management (APO) - The New York Yankees are in advanced talks with Apollo to raise about USD 3bln through mostly debt and some equity, according to the WSJ. The transaction could be announced soon, subject to negotiations and MLB approval, and would be Apollo’s largest financing with a US sports team. Meanwhile, Apollo is reportedly a frontrunner for the LNG Canada stake, according to reports.
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 1.10 (exp. 1.04), Revenue 498.9mln (exp. 491.34mln).
Nordea (NRDBY) - Nordea’s Q2 net fee and commission income +11% Y/Y to EUR 880mln (exp. 858.6mln). Assets under management in its wealth business reached a record high.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Lululemon (LULU) - Truist downgraded Lululemon (LULU) to 'Sell' from 'Hold' with a USD 94 PT (prev. 115). TikTok and Google Trends continue to show Lululemon losing mindshare, while Amex Platinum Reddit discussions signal meaningful brand issues, said the firm, which believes current headwinds may prove "more structural than what is currently being underwritten by the Street." The current leadership transition period likely stalls turnaround efforts, with Truist questioning if Heidi O'Neill's tenure at Nike (NKE) makes her the right candidate for CEO.
Delivery Hero (DELHY), Uber Technologies (UBER) - Uber said it has offered to buy Delivery Hero for EUR 41.50/shr in cash, representing an equity value of USD 14.8bln. The deal would strengthen Uber’s competition with DoorDash (DASH) outside the US.
Brazil Ags - Brazil FinMin Durigan said he plans to renegotiate over BRL 100bln in rural debt via a provisional measure, with a fiscal impact below BRL 4bln due to strict eligibility criteria. The programme covers farmers and cooperatives with production losses between 2019-2025, with repayment terms of 8-10 years and below-market interest rates. Debt payments on eligible rural debt have been suspended for 30 days from 14th July to allow producers to negotiate new terms.

INDUSTRIALS

US Defence Contractors - President Trump urged defence contractors to accelerate production, singling out General Dynamics (GD) for slower-than-desired submarine delivery. Trump cited targets including faster production of Patriot missiles and Tomahawk (RTX), amid concerns that the Iran conflict has stretched US stockpiles of critical munitions. Trump praised Boeing (BA) CEO Ortberg, stating that “I am the greatest salesman in the history of Boeing. If I were in the private sector, I would ask for a piece of the company.”
United Airlines (UAL) - Shares slipped over 2% in extended trading after soft guidance for the next quarter. Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.99 (exp. 1.87), Revenue 17.7bln (exp. 17.62bln). Capacity rose 3.5% Y/Y; TRASM increased 12.1%, CASM rose 15.2%, and CASM-ex increased 6.1%; available liquidity was at 19.6bln, and trailing twelve-month net leverage was 2.2x. CEO said United is built to thrive in every environment, with schedule adjustments after oil prices spiked alongside continued customer investments across cabins, network expansion, Starlink and Relax Row. Based on oil prices in mid-July, it expects nearly USD 6bln of added FY26 fuel expense vs expectations at the start of the year, and expects to recover 80-90% of the fuel increase in Q3 and 100% by Q4. Sees Q3 adj. EPS between 2.50-3.50 (exp. 3.48), Q3 all-in average fuel price of about USD 3.69/gallon, and expects Q3 and Q4 TRASM growth to exceed Q2. Raised FY26 guidance, sees adj. EPS between 9.00-11.00 (exp. 10.47; prev. saw 7.00-11.00) and adj. total capex of USD 7.5bln.
GE Aerospace (GE) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.02 (exp. 1.87), Adj. Revenue 12.6bln (exp. 11.9bln), Commercial Engines & Services Revenue 9.73bln (exp. 9.16bln), Defence & Propulsion Technologies Revenue 3.44bln (exp. 3.2bln). Said no planned debt repayment and plans to refinance '26+ maturities. Raised FY guidance: Adj. EPS 7.65-7.85 (exp. 7.57, prev. guided 7.10-7.40), 2026 Op. profit 10.55-10.75bln (prev. guided 9.85-10.25bln), 2026 FCF 8.9-9.2bln (prev. guided 8-8.4bln), sees 2026 Adj. revenue in the "high-teens".
General Electric (GE) - Said management cited robust demand and a backlog exceeding USD 210bln, while total engine deliveries increased 31% in H1 as operational improvements lifted output. Has not seen high fuel prices accelerate retirements of older aircraft. A sharp further climb in fuel prices could cause air-travel demand destruction.
Boeing (BA) - Said close to completing the certification process on three long-delayed jetliner models.
General Dynamics (GD) - General Dynamics' Electric Boat unit and private shipbuilder Rhoades Industries agreed to a USD 2.5bln submarine deal
SpaceX (SPCX) - CEO Musk said AI satellite V1 peak power specs has been raised to around 250kW, with average power of around 160kW. Separately, SpaceX short sellers have accumulated paper profits of USD 3.88bln, as shares fell to near the IPO price of USD 135, according to S3 Partners data. Approximately 28% of the available stock is now sold short.
American Airlines (AAL) - American Airlines elected John Dietrich to its board, where he will serve on the Audit and Finance Committees. Dietrich has 35 years’ aviation and air cargo experience and was FedEx (FDX) executive vice-president and CFO from 2023 to 2026.
AeroVironment (AVAV) - Upgraded at Raymond James to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' with a USD 210 PT. The firm believes consensus expectations for AeroVironment are now "significantly de-risked." Meanwhile, the company's bookings are beginning to inflect and its backlog is positioned to resume growth, contends Raymond James. It sees the "most constructive estimate setup" for AeroVironment since 2024. As such, the stock's risk/reward has turned "decisively positive".
Distribution Solutions Group (DSGR) - To be taken private by affiliates of LKCM Headwater Investments for USD 35.00/shr in cash.
ManpowerGroup (MAN) - Guided Q3 revenue +2-6% (exp. +1.8%), via earnings slides.

MATERIALS

Gold - Fidelity International plans to rebuild its gold position to overweight at some point; portfolio manager Ian Samson said he expects gold to end the year slightly higher than current levels near USD 4,000/oz, with a return to a bull market anticipated in 2027. Samson cut his position to neutral in January-February, around the time gold’s bull run ended from a record near USD 5,600/oz, with the first bullish signal being a push to USD 4,300/oz or the 50-day moving average crossing above longer-term indicators.
BHP Group (BHP) - BHP reported FY copper production -3% Y/Y at 1.95mln tons (exp. 1.95mln tons), and record iron ore output, rising +1% Y/Y at 264.7mln tons (exp. 264.1mln tons). Average realised copper prices +35% Y/Y; FY27 copper guidance is 1.65-1.80mln tons, with the decline attributed to lower grades at Escondida, while iron ore guidance is set at 260-272mln tons.
J.B. Hunt (JBHT) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 1.91 (exp. 1.73), Revenue 3.50bln (exp. 3.26bln). Intermodal revenue +22% Y/Y, driven by 10% volume growth and an 11% increase in gross revenue per load; transcontinental loads +5%, Eastern network loads +16%. Dedicated Contract Services revenue +9% on productivity gains; Integrated Capacity Solutions revenue +49%, as volume rose +19% and revenue per load rose +26%. Final Mile Services revenue -6%, mainly reflecting known business losses as the company focuses on revenue quality and profitability.

HEALTHCARE

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 6.38 (exp. 4.85), Revenue 112bln (exp. 110.76bln). Medical cost ratio was 86.7% (vs 89.4% Y/Y), reflected product design changes, improved medical management and better aligned pricing. MCR was affected by USD 860mln of net favourable prior period development, with the majority related to 2026 dates of service. Optum supported more than 120mln consumers and generated revenue of USD 65.7bln and earnings of USD 4.0bln, with margin expansion of 160bps Y/Y. CEO said results and outlook reflect progress in simplifying operations, improving affordability and applying modern technology to improve care. Sees FY EPS at 19.50-20.00 (exp. 18.42) and FY MCR 88.8% +/- 50bps (exp. 88.4%, prev. guided 88.3-89.3%). Said Medicare business has improved through benefits planning and design and remains "in line with expectations" despite persistently elevated medical costs.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.31 (exp. 1.28), Revenue 12.6bln (exp. 12.52bln). Raised FY adj. EPS view to 5.45-5.60 (exp. 5.49, prev. 5.38-5.58), reaffirmed sales growth view 6.5-7.5%. Sees Q3 adj. EPS at 1.38-1.46 (exp. 1.42).
Merck (MRK) - Announced the US FDA has approved LIPFENDRA tablets 20 mg as an adjunct to diet and exercise to reduce LDL-C in adults with hypercholesterolemia, including HeFH; Phase 3 trials cut LDL-C between 56-59%.
AtaiBeckley (ATAI), Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly announced it is to acquire AtaiBeckleyto advance therapies for treatment-resistant depression and other mental health conditions; deal value at USD 6.75/shr upfront.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Novo Nordisk said the European Commission has approved its once-daily Wegovy pill for weight management in adults with obesity or who are overweight.
Insmed (INSM) - Reported positive 12-month data from the TPIP open-label extension study in pulmonary arterial hypertension, showing sustained improvements in six-minute walk distance, NT-proBNP, WHO Functional Class, and REVEAL Lite 2.0 scores. Approximately 65% of patients achieved Refined Low Risk status, supporting the drug's long-term safety and efficacy profile.

ENERGY

TotalEnergies (TTE) - TotalEnergies guided Q2 hydrocarbon production at nearly 2.4mln boepd, with the Middle East conflict impact estimated at 210K boepd (prev. saw 360K), driven by UAE offshore production ramp-up and regional restart of output during June.

REAL ESTATE

Prologis Inc. (PLD) Q2 2026 (USD): Core FFO 1.63 (exp. 1.53), Revenue 2.43bln (exp. 2.16bln), Net income 1.061bln (exp. 759.5mln). Raised 2026 core FFO view to 6.22-6.30 (exp. 6.17, prev. 6.07-6.23).

TRADE

China Rare Earths - The IEA said China’s rare earth export curbs could put USD 6.5tln of annual downstream production outside China at risk if fully implemented; it recommended multilateral stockpiling of 11 high-risk materials at an initial cost of USD 9.2bln, and a net annual cost of USD 900mln. China’s share of rare earth refining has fallen from 90% to 85%, and could decline to 70% by 2035 if planned diversification projects proceed as scheduled.
US-China - USTR Greer set modest expectations for the September Trump-Xi summit, describing it as a “stock-taking” exercise to confirm the relationship and verify China’s compliance with existing commitments rather than brokering new deals. Greer also noted China’s compliance with a rare earths pact is “not perfect.”
US-Brazil - The Office of the US Trade Representative said it will impose 25% tariffs on certain Brazilian imports from 22nd July, following a year-long investigation that found Brazil engaged in unfair trade practices deemed unreasonable and discriminatory against US farmers, workers and exporters.
USMCA - USTR Greer said USMCA talks with Mexico are progressing, describing Mexican negotiators as “pragmatic,” while talks with Canada have yet to produce any concessions. Greer said reducing the US trade deficit with Mexico is a core mandate, and that a breakthrough with Canada may require direct agreement between Trump and PM Carney. A third round of US-Mexico bilateral negotiations is scheduled for next week in Mexico City.
US-Switzerland - USTR Greer praised Switzerland’s stance in trade negotiations, and its investments in the US, saying talks are moving in a “positive direction” as Switzerland seeks to secure a 15% tariff rate.
US-Vietnam - USTR Greer said the US wants Vietnam to take further action on non-tariff barriers, intellectual property and economic security cooperation, including alignment on export controls, as a condition for advancing trade deal negotiations.

MACRO

China Bonds - China’s National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors told some bankers this week that local government financing vehicles whose outstanding notes exceed their 31st March 2023 levels should suspend ongoing bond sales and avoid new offerings, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
UK Growth - UK GDP rose 0.1% in May (exp. 0.0%), driven solely by services as production and construction both fell. The unexpected expansion came despite political uncertainty and elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict. The annual rate of growth rose to 1.3% Y/Y (exp. 1.4%, prev. 1.2%), while the three-month average rate stood at 0.7% in May (exp. 0.5%, prev. 0.7%).