Daily US Equity Opening News - Zuckerberg says new model outperforms Gemini 3.1 Pro; DAL earnings & guidance beat fails to impress

DAY AHEAD:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES unch, NQ -0.4%, YM +0.2%, RUT +0.2%
BROKER MOVES: TWLO upgraded at Stifel; PEP downgraded at Citi. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: META, DAL, CRCL, FRMI, UUUU, SXT, WDFC, SHOP. For the full list, click here.
DATA: USDA’s world agricultural supply and demand estimates report is also due today (analysts expect lower corn production estimates and a rise in soybean output forecasts).
ENERGY: Baker Hughes weekly rig counts due (prev. oil rigs 445, prev. total rigs 580).
CRA: On today’s slate, potential reviews from Fitch on the Netherlands (AAA), Morningstar DBRS on Switzerland (AAA); Scope Ratings on Japan (A).

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS

US-Iran - US official said US-Iran technical talks are continuing despite renewed strikes and clashes threatening the ceasefire, adding that Washington remains committed to negotiations. Both sides have accused each other of violations, while talks have made little progress on Hormuz shipping tolls, frozen Iranian assets and Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, according to multiple reports. A senior US official claimed that the US military did not carry out recent attacks on Iran; Iranian authorities separately denied that any explosions occurred in the locations where they were reported. Separately, Iran National Security Commission spokesperson warned that transportation and oil and gas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan and Bahrain would be legitimate targets of Iran’s response to recent attacks. Elsewhere, US CENTCOM said Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz, and that US forces have assisted over 800 commercial vessels and 380mln barrels of crude oil through the strait since early May.

INDEX

S&P 600 - Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI) will replace Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (CPRX) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Wednesday, July 15. Angelini Pharma S.p.A. is acquiring Catalyst Pharmaceuticals in a deal expected to close soon, pending final closing conditions.

TECH

SK Hynix (SKHY), Samsung Electronics (SSNLF), Micron (MU) - Commerce Secretary Lutnick pressed Samsung and SK Hynix to expand memory chip production in the US, saying he wants both companies to build facilities alongside Micron (MU). Micron separately announced it would increase its planned US investment to USD 250bln through 2035, lifting its shares on Thursday.
SK Hynix (SKHY) - SK Hynix raised USD 26.5bln in its US ADR offering (vs suggestions earlier in the week it would be looking to raise USD 28bln), the largest ever US first-time share sale by a foreign company, selling 177.9mln ADRs at USD 149 each (a 3% premium to Thursday’s Seoul close). ADRs are set to begin trading on Nasdaq under the symbol SKHY on 13th July. ADR sale drew orders from 500+ accounts, with the top 10 accounts taking nearly half of ADRs. The US offering approached USD 200bln in demand; the top 25 accounts took ~67% of ADR sale. CBOE reportedly expects to list SK Hynix options two business days following its trading debut, according to reports, citing sources.
Apple (AAPL) - Some production lines for the standard Apple iPhone 17 this week shifted from an earlier 15% reduction to plans to suspend nearly 33% of capacity, MacRumors reports.
Samsung Electronics (SSNLF), Nvidia (NVDA) - Samsung Chairman Lee Jae-yong is expected to meet Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in Silicon Valley later in July to discuss expanded AI and semiconductor cooperation, Dong-A Ilbo reports. Talks may cover South Korea’s KRW 800tln fabrication complex, AI data centres exceeding KRW 1,000tln, Nvidia chip supplies, and partnerships involving Samsung, Nvidia and SK Group.
OpenAI, Alphabet (GOOG) - OpenAI and Google supplied AI services to Singapore-based subsidiaries of Alibaba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU) and Tencent (TCEHY) despite their parent groups appearing on the Pentagon’s 1260H blacklist, FT reports. The sales remain legal as current US restrictions do not broadly prohibit Pentagon-blacklisted Chinese companies from accessing AI models outside mainland China, though the disclosure has renewed calls for export controls on frontier AI software.
OpenAI - Fidji Simo will leave her full-time role as OpenAI’s second-ranking executive after her neuroimmune condition worsened, and will become a part-time adviser, WSJ reports. Her product and business duties will be divided among Greg Brockman, Sarah Friar and Jason Kwon as OpenAI prepares for a potential IPO.
Cursor, Anthropic - Cursor is developing a general-purpose AI agent to compete with Anthropic’s Claude Cowork, as the company diversifies beyond coding tools, The Information reports. Work began after Cursor started leasing compute from SpaceX’s AI unit in April, ahead of SpaceX’s planned USD 60bln acquisition of Cursor. The agent could support SpaceXAI’s enterprise business once the deal closes.
AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, ORCL - UK has designated Amazon (AMZN) Web Services, Google (GOOG) Cloud, Microsoft (MSFT) & Oracle (ORCL) as Critical Third Parties from the 13th of July; will be subject to oversight by UK financial regulators. "Four global Cloud Service Providers are to be brought under a new regime from next week to help strengthen the resilience of the UK’s financial system and protect the services millions of people and businesses rely on every day." "As banks, insurers and financial market infrastructures become increasingly reliant on cloud services, disruption at a major supplier could affect multiple firms at the same time, potentially impacting services customers depend on."
Seagate (STX), Western Digital (WDC) - Wells Fargo upgraded Seagate to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' with a USD 1,100 PT (prev. 900), citing the recent pullback in shares along with the firm's increasing confidence in a path to USD 50+ in EPS and significant capital return capacity. The firm expects both Western Digital and Seagate to highlight extending demand visibility with potential exabyte demand growth accelerating into calendar years 2027 and 2028.
Twilio (TWLO) - Upgraded at Stifel to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a USD 260 PT (prev. 175). The firm believes the company has the right tools in place to capitalize on the AI cycle and drive durable growth on the back of its recently accelerating trajectory. Through a combination of significant restructuring efforts and refocusing the platform and R&D investment around its core competencies and AI innovation, Twilio finds itself in the right place at exactly the right time, Stifel added.
Shopify (SHOP) - Upgraded at Stifel to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a USD 150 PT (prev. 110). The company will continue to execute its share-gaining playbook in the e-commerce space while extending its leadership through agentic commerce and compounding Gross Merchandise Value at a multiple of the broader e-commerce market, the firm said. Based on its survey work and industry conversations, there is a realistic path to 30%-plus revenue growth in 2026 and sustained mid-20s beyond.
CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCC) - CCC Intelligent is weighing a sale of the company, Reuters reports, citing three people familiar with the matter.
Infineon Technologies (IFNNY) - Infineon is raising prices in some segments, and warns power-management chips could face allocation as demand recovers, Handelsblatt reports.
WD-40 (WDFC) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 2.33 (exp. 1.57), Revenue 195.1mln (exp. 172.8mln); raised FY26 EPS view to 6.05-6.35 (exp. 5.99, prev. 5.75-6.15) and raised FY26 revenue view to 652-667mln (exp. 661mln, prev. 630-655mln). Approved a new share repurchase program authorising the repurchase of up to USD 100mln of outstanding common stock.

COMMUNICATIONS

Alphabet (GOOG) - Google is reportedly planning to at least double capacity of a data centre project in Konstorf, Austria.
Social Media - The EU Commission President will put forward proposals on limiting social media harm to young people on Monday, though the measures are not expected to specify what could be banned or restricted, Politico reports. The proposals are expected to be developed ahead of the Commission’s State of the EU speech in September.
Meta (META) - Chief Mark Zuckerberg told Bloomberg that the model outperforms Google’s (GOOG) Gemini 3.1 Pro, and said Meta plans to aggressively undercut rivals on pricing. Meanwhile, EU Commission preliminarily finds the addictive design of Meta's Instagram and Facebook in breach of the Digital Services Act; Meta disagrees with the ruling.
Tencent (TCEHY) - Tencent is in talks to become Manus’s largest minority shareholder as investors seek to unwind Meta’s USD 2bln acquisition after Beijing ordered its reversal, FT reports. Manus would remain independent in Singapore. Former investors, including ZhenFund and HSG, may also participate.
Netflix (NFLX) - Netflix is discussing adding live TV channels and bundling third-party streaming services including NBCUniversal’s Peacock (CMCSA) into its platform to address declining subscriber engagement, WSJ reports.
Disney (DIS) - Disney is exploring free access to some Disney+ content, without a disclosed timeline or scope, Business Insider reports. The move could counter growing TV viewing on YouTube, Tubi and The Roku Channel.
Vodafone (VOD) - UAE telecoms group E& will sell its Vodafone (VOD LN) stake to the family group of French billionaire Xavier Niel for USD 5.95bln, a 15% premium to the last close; the deal will generate a net cash return of approximately USD 1.3bln for E&, and marks its exit from Vodafone following a review of its international portfolio.

FINANCIALS

Polymarket - Polymarket filed an application with the National Futures Association to operate as a futures commission merchant, seeking regulatory approval to offer margin trading in the US. The company must also obtain CFTC approval for rulebook changes permitting non-fully collateralised trading.
Goldman Sachs (GS) - Goldman Sachs banned employees from trading prediction-market contracts linked to specific companies, elections, financial markets, ceasefires and regulatory approvals, while allowing sports and entertainment bets. Repeated breaches may lead to dismissal or account closure, with profits above USD 200 potentially forfeited or donated to charity.
JPMorgan (JPM) - JPMorgan’s AI investing agents outperformed a traditional 60/40 portfolio by 0.7ppts annually with lower volatility in 20yr back tests, Bloomberg reports. Powered by OpenAI and Anthropic models, all eight agents beat both the benchmark and JPMorgan’s rules-based regime model, though the bank cautioned that historical simulations do not prove consistent live-market outperformance.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) - President Trump’s Charles Schwab investment account executed over 21,000 trades in 2025, surging after an August appeals court overturned a roughly USD 500mln fraud penalty, freeing capital that was redeployed via automated direct-indexing strategies, WSJ reports. Trump’s eight investment accounts held at least USD 858mln in 2025 (vs USD 237mln a year earlier), with USD 2.2bln in total income, including USD 1.4bln from crypto.
HSBC (HSBC) - HSBC is said to be marketing risky Hang Seng Bank loans to investors after taking the Hong Kong lender private for USD 13.6bln, FT reports. Hang Seng held about USD 3.5bln of HSBC’s USD 6.3bln stage-three Hong Kong commercial property loans, while 63% of the group’s local property loan book carried increased credit risk in Q1.
Blue Owl (OWL) - UBS advised clients overexposed to private credit to withdraw from Blue Owl’s USD 3bln technology income fund, FT reports. Investors withdrew 15.4% of assets in Q4 2025, causing about USD 400mln of net outflows, while redemption requests exceeded 40% of fund value in Q1 2026.
Circle (CRCL) - Received final OCC approval to establish National Trust bank. Bank will operate under the name Circle National Trust, and upon opening, Circle National Trust will offer fiduciary digital asset custody services for Circle & its affiliates.
Coinbase (COIN) - Announced that Chief Legal Officer and Secretary Paul Grewal will step down effective July 31. The company expects to appoint Molly Abraham, currently Vice President, Legal, as General Counsel and Secretary. Grewal will remain as an advisor from August 1 through October 31 to support the leadership transition and will receive compensation under an advisory agreement, including continued vesting of certain restricted stock units.
EQT (EQBBF), Carlyle (CG) - EQT Infrastructure VII agreed to acquire Copia Power from Carlyle. Copia has over 2.6GW of operating or under-construction generation and storage assets, and is developing over 9GW of grid-connected data centres supported by more than 25GW of solar and storage and 7GW of natural gas generation. Closing is expected in end-2026.

INDUSTRIALS

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.56 (exp. 1.50), Revenue 19.8bln (exp. 18.85bln). Affirmed current FY EPS guidance of 6.50-7.50 (exp. 5.92) and sees Q3 EPS at 2.00-2.50 (exp. 2.09). Delta backed its FY26 free cash flow view of 3.0-4.0bln. "Expect continued momentum in September quarter with mid-teens revenue growth and double-digit margin...expect momentum to carry into the second half with double-digit margins and a return to earnings growth." Announced a 15% increase to the dividend from Q3.
Boeing (BA) - Boeing’s 737 MAX 7 is expected to receive FAA certification later in July, barring delays, WSJ reports. The FAA may also restore Boeing’s authority to conduct final safety sign-offs on new 737s. Meanwhile, Philippine Airlines is reportedly to order 15 Boeing 787-10 and nine Airbus (AIR FP) A350-1000 craft, according to Reuters, citing sources.
General Dynamics (GD) - General Dynamics won a USD 255mln US Navy contract modification for engineering, technical, design-agent and planning-yard support for operational strategic and attack submarines.
Ryder (R) - Increased quarterly dividend by 11% to USD 1.01.
RTX (RTX) - Awarded a GBP 2bln contract from the UK for AI training. Meanwhile, RTX received a USD 101.98mln US Navy order for engineering work to restart and update the MK 45 Capsule Launch System production line.
EasyJet (ESYJY), Apollo (APO) - EasyJet has agreed to a GBP 5.7bln takeover by Apollo at 715p/shr, outbidding Castlelake’s previously agreed 690p/shr offer.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Amazon (AMZN) - AWS released Loom for AWS, an enterprise-grade platform for building agents with AWS Strands Agents and deploying and operating them on Amazon Bedrock AgentCore Runtime.
Toll Brothers (TOL) - Upgraded at Citi to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 176 PT (prev. 146). When homebuilder earnings kick off with reports from D.R. Horton (DHI) and PulteGroup (PHM) in the week of July 20, the firm expects homebuilders to point to second-half gross margin stabilisation after over three years of compression, as well as significant outperformance among higher average selling price communities and more affluent homebuyers. While not calling to buy the entire group, the firm sees Toll outperforming in a K-shaped housing recovery, the firm added.
BMW (BMWKY) - Reported Q2 deliveries of 590.9k, -4.9% Y/Y, BEVs +5.2% Y/Y.
Volkswagen (VWAGY) - Reported 8.6% drop in Q2 deliveries Y/Y amid China weakness. Delivered 4.1mln vehicles in H1 26; Q2 deliveries in China down 36.6%, Q2 deliveries in North America up 7.7%. Volkswagen said it will streamline its model line-up by up to 50%, focusing on the most attractive market segments. It is adjusting production capacity to target 9mln vehicles annually and refocusing its equity and investment portfolio on strategic contribution and returns. The Works Council said H2 2026 is going to be tough.

HEALTHCARE

Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) - Reported that its Phase 2 trial of BL1107 for glaucoma failed to meet its primary endpoint, as the study did not replicate the visual function improvements seen in an earlier Phase 1/2a trial. The trial also missed key secondary visual function endpoints. While the drug demonstrated ocular target engagement by reducing intraocular pressure, the company said it will not advance BL1107 as a topical eye drop for this indication. No new safety signals were observed.
Abivax (ABVX) - CEO said the latest funding round has permitted a move towards launching its bowel disease drug in the US without requiring 3rd party support, CNBC reports.
Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) - Sequential occupancy growth remains modest, with Q2 weighted average occupancy up only 30 bps from Q1 and June month-end occupancy up 20 bps sequentially. Same-community occupancy growth is slower than consolidated growth, with June weighted average occupancy up 90 bps year over year versus 200 bps for consolidated occupancy. The company did not provide revenue, margin, or earnings guidance.
Bayer (BAYRY) - Bayer has secured EUR 3.0bln in equity capital from Apollo (APO) managed funds, which will acquire a minority, non-controlling stake in a newly established entity holding Bayer’s long-acting reversible contraceptives business. Bayer will retain a majority stake and full operational control.

ENERGY

IEA OMR - Forecasts global oil demand in 2026 to fall by 1.05mln BPD (prev. exp. 1.12mln); global oil demand recovery is under way. Global oil demand is estimated at 103.46mln bpd for 2026 and is expected to grow by 2mln BPD in 2027 and reach 105.47mln BPD. Oil supply may expand 7.5mln BPD in 2027 if transits improve.
Energy Fuels (UUUU) - CEO bought 74,000 shares of common stock on July 7th in a total transaction size of USD 968k.
Sempra Energy (SRE) - Announced leadership changes tied to its pending sale of a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners to KKR affiliates, expected to close in Q3. Bob Patel will become CEO of Sempra Infrastructure upon close; Karen Sedgwick will move from EVP and CFO of Sempra to CEO and President of Southern California Gas Company; and Justin Bird will transition from CEO of Sempra Infrastructure to EVP and CFO of Sempra.

CONSUMER STAPLES

PepsiCo (PEP) - Downgraded at Citigroup to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' with a USD 145 PT (prev. 170), citing continued weakness in North America despite strategic actions that have included price reductions, innovation, and shelf space gains. While Q2 near-term trends were pressured by inflation impacts on consumer behaviors, which could improve sequentially, the firm worries about lingering underlying North America weakness in the second half and 2027.

MATERIALS

Sigma Lithium (SGML) - Sigma Lithium produced 35K tonnes of high-grade lithium concentrate in Q2 (vs guidance for 33K); performance reflected upgraded and internalised mining operations, an expanded fleet and an optimised mine plan.
Sensient (SXT)- 2.05mln share block trade within a price range of USD 114-116.

REAL ESTATE

Fermi (FRMI) - Announced its intention to offer USD 350mln aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2031. The company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to purchase privately negotiated capped call transactions to offset share dilution and the remainder for general corporate purposes.

TRADE

US Tariffs - The US will not immediately impose tariffs on commercial aircraft, jet engines and parts following a Section 232 national security investigation, with President Trump instead directing the USTR and Commerce Department to negotiate with trading partners on import adjustments, Bloomberg reports. Future duties remain possible if agreements are not reached within 180 days or prove ineffective.

MACRO

Japan Assets - Japan’s FinMin Katayama called on pension funds, including the GPIF, to increase domestic asset allocations, catching markets off guard and prompting the yen to strengthen overnight, while bond yields fell. GPIF manages JPY 293.6tln in assets, with roughly half deployed overseas; Japan is also the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries.
China 5yr Plan - China omitted a numeric target for urban job creation from its 2026-2030 5yr plan for the first time in at least three decades, Bloomberg notes. New urban jobs will instead be kept at a “considerable scale,” with annual targets set flexibly. It explicitly named AI as a new technology affecting employment, alongside industrial transformation, demographic suiovinces had used nearly 94% of a CNY 6tln hidden-debt refinancing quota by end-June after issuing over CNY 1.62tln in H1, Bloomberg reports. Completion could redirect attention towards infrastructure, but heavy fiscal burdens, tighter project scrutiny, weak land-sale revenue and concerns over further debt accumulation are expected to limit additional stimulus, the report adds.