Daily US Equity Opening News: TSM potential Terafab partner; SBGSY to acquire PTC for USD 23.7bln

DAY AHEAD:

• US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.1%, NQ -0.3, YM -0.1%, RUT +0.1%
• US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: MCHP. For the full list, click here.
• DATA: In North America, US ISM services PMI headline is seen rising a touch to 55.7 (prev. 55.4) with business activity at 61.5 (prev. 61.7), prices up to 72.9 (prev. 72.6), new orders at 60.3 (prev. 60.9) and employment at 48 (prev. 47.8); S&P Global final services PMI (exp. 58.7, prev. 56.5) and composite (exp. 58.4, prev. 56.0) are also due.
• CENTRAL BANKS: Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, neutral) gives an interview to Fox News.
• WEEK AHEAD: This week’s data highlights include: FOMC and ECB minutes, US ISM Services PMI, Canadian Jobs data. Notable corporates reporting this week include: PepsiCo (PEP), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Constellation Brands (STZ).

• TSMC (TSM), Intel (INTC) - Intel (INTC) shares fell premarket after Elon Musk said TSMC (TSM) and his Terafab chip venture are in discussions and something may come of it, but failed to mention Intel, which some reports had indicated. Intel joined the Terafab project, which also includes SpaceX and Tesla, in April.
• Apple (AAPL) - Apple plans additional macOS controls around Full Disk Access, saying some developers use the permission in ways that may expose files, mail, messages and browsing history without sufficient user understanding. Apple said future access will require more explicit user action, citing growing privacy risks as AI agents become more capable and autonomous.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) - Qualcomm agreed to license patents underpinning Huawei’s LogicFolding chip technology under a multiyear cross-licensing agreement covering 5G, AI, optics and networks. The deal value was undisclosed, and remains subject to US FTC review. Huawei expects total contract value from all patent licensing agreements to exceed USD 6.9bln after the Qualcomm deal. Separately, Qualcomm registered up to 25mln shares of common stock for potential sale by existing shareholders. Qualcomm itself is not selling shares under the prospectus and will not receive any proceeds from the sales. Meanwhile, Qualcomm and Arm Holdings (ARM) are heading back to court, with Qualcomm accusing Arm of withholding chip-testing tools required under contract and alleging Arm leaked its 2024 threat to terminate a key license agreement, damaging Qualcomm’s discussions with Meta (META) over a chip deal; potential damages are in focus
• AMD (AMD) - AMD CEO Lisa Su made a brief visit to Taiwan on 5th October, less than five months after her previous trip, DigiTimes reports. She is expected to meet key suppliers, with AMD seeking additional capacity from TSMC (TSM) and packaging, testing and substrate providers.
• US AI Taskforce - President Trump appointed Jay Clayton to help lead the White House “Super Intelligence Force” on AI. Andrew Ferguson, Emil Michael and Scott Kupor will also lead the group, which has 120 days to report on AI risks and coordinate government engagement while prioritising US leadership in superintelligence. Separately, US Treasury Secretary Bessent criticised AI leaders’ existential-risk warnings as alarmist and urged labs to take responsibility for safety; he backed “safe acceleration,” opposed new federal regulation, supported voluntary audits and said the US must retain its lead over China. Washington and Beijing also plan an AI dialogue and bilateral incident-notification system.
• OpenAI, Anthropic - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said his company differs fundamentally from Anthropic on AI regulation, arguing society should accept some harms in exchange for the technology’s benefits and public agency, according to Politico. Altman said there is “a lot of daylight” between OpenAI and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on these issues.
• DeepSeek - The US AI performance lead over China has narrowed to a record-low 3% after gains by DeepSeek, Bloomberg Intelligence says. DeepSeek’s V4.1 Flash ranked sixth globally on LiveBench, trailing Anthropic’s top score 81.1 versus 83.4. Bloomberg said China’s progress questions the effectiveness of US export controls, though only three of the top 15 models were Chinese.
• Cerebras (CBRS) - OpenAI CEO Altman said "There is some speculation about our partnership with Cerebras. Cerebras is a close partner, and we have a deep engagement pushing on the frontiers of speed."
• Seagate (STX), Western Digital (WDC) - Bernstein and Citi recommend buying Seagate and Western Digital after Friday’s selloff. Bernstein said Toshiba’s plan to nearly double HDD production capacity by FY2027 was misunderstood and would imply about 16.8% exabyte market share, not 30%; Citi said even doubled Toshiba capacity would leave the HDD market undersupplied.
• SoftBank (SFTBY) - SoftBank chief Masayoshi Son warned that rapidly advancing AI poses serious safety risks and called for international cooperation to control powerful models, Bloomberg reports. He said superintelligence in the wrong hands could be “super dangerous”, while reiterating his view that AI and learning machines could account for at least 20% of global GDP by 2040.
• PTC Inc. (PTC), Schneider Electric (SBGSY) - Schneider Electric agreed to acquire PTC for USD 205/shr in cash, implying an EV of USD 23.7bln. The price represents a premium of more than 40% to PTC’s last close. The transaction is expected to complete by Q3 2027.
• Flex (FLEX) - Announced USD 2bln convertible preferred investment into Axiom led by General Catalyst with Koch equity development; investment at initial enterprise value for Axiom of USD 37.5bln. To separate Axiom into a publicly traded company in Q1 2027.
• Strategy (MSTR) - Announced ATM offering programme update; sold 92,894 MSTR shares for net proceeds of USD 15.70mln during Oct 1-4th and USD 15.7mln in net proceeds from MSTR stock sales used to fund Bitcoin purchases.

• Social Media - UK ministers are considering stricter age verification for social media, including passport or driving-licence checks, to enforce a proposed under-16 ban, The Times reports. The tougher approach follows concerns that age-screening measures used in Australia have been too easy for children to bypass.
• AT&T (T), Apple (AAPL) - Apple confirmed that a small number of iPhone 18 Pro Max devices on AT&T lost cellular service. Apple released iOS 27.0.1 and a carrier settings update to prevent further cases, but devices already affected will require hardware replacement.
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) - Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison plans to install Paramount Pictures chiefs Dana Goldberg and Josh Greenstein in charge of Warner Bros. Pictures once the USD 110bln Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition closes next week, according to Bloomberg. Incumbent chiefs Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy will not join, while DC Studios co-chiefs James Gunn and Peter Safran will.
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Oracle (ORCL) - Bloomberg reports that investors are increasingly treating Paramount Skydance and Oracle as linked credit risks because both depend heavily on Larry Ellison’s financial backing. Paramount added USD 52bln of debt for Warner Bros. Discovery, while Oracle’s long-term debt exceeds USD 160bln. Concerns centre on whether falling Oracle shares could weaken Ellison’s ability to support Paramount.
• GameStop (GME) - CEO Ryan Cohen purchased 700K shares on 2nd October at USD 24.41/shr.
• BT Group (BTGUY) - BT has reportedly agreed a rescue of TalkTalk via a pre-pack administration, acquiring its wholesale and consumer businesses, Sky News reports citing sources; BT will pay about GBP 100mln to Ares Management (ARES) and around GBP 60mln to KKR & Co. (KKR). All 900 TalkTalk employees are expected to transfer, while shareholders, including founder Sir Charles Dunstone, will be wiped out.

• Renault (RNLSY) - CEO Francois Provost said the automaker plans to invest more than EUR 10bln in French electric-vehicle production over the next five years if political and social conditions permit, Bloomberg reports. Provost also said instability in France could significantly affect Renault, which generates 20% of its business and employs 40% of its workforce there.
• Levi Strauss (LEVI) - Positive mention in WSJ, which writes that it is benefiting from renewed 1990s fashion trends, with strong demand for low-rise and vintage-inspired denim.
• Auto dealer group - Morgan Stanley notes that the group is facing negative earnings revisions, higher interest rates and oil prices, and "structural regulatory and technological overhangs." Morgan Stanley cut its Q3 and fiscal 2027 earnings estimates for the group on softer volumes and expects Street estimates to move lower as Q3 results come through. It believes AutoNation's earnings resilience will be challenged in the near term. Morgan Stanley downgraded (AN) AutoNation to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of USD 175 (prev. 250) and Group 1 to Underweight from Equal Weight with a USD 232 PT (prev. 300).

• Intesa Sanpaolo (INSPY), Monte Paschi (BMDPF) - Intesa Sanpaolo raised its takeover offer for Monte dei Paschi di Siena, adding EUR 800mln in cash if shareholders reject MPS’s counter-strategy, Reuters reports. Intesa now offers EUR 1.25 cash plus 1.6 new Intesa shares per MPS share. Intesa Sanpaolo said its sweetened offer has secured backing from top shareholder Delfin, which will tender its 17.6% stake in Paschi. Intesa could abandon its EUR 34bln bid if MPS shareholders approve alternative takeover plans on 29th October.
• CME Group (CME) - CME Group suspended plans to launch a 24/7 10-barrel crude oil futures contract after industry participants raised concerns about unintended market risks.
• Polymarket - A WSJ investigation found repeated compliance failures, fraud attacks and software glitches at Polymarket. In February, thieves allegedly attempted to steal at least USD 10mln by linking stolen credit cards to Polymarket US accounts. The investigation focuses on the company’s US app and its “growth at all costs” strategy.

• OPEC - OPEC+ agreed to keep November oil production steady amid elevated Middle East security risks, as Gulf output remains well below quotas amid Iran-war export disruptions. The group also held October output unchanged after six monthly increases. It pumped about 25mln BPD in August, roughly 5mln below February levels. OPEC+ countries reaffirmed their commitment to full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation; they are set to meet again on 1st November to decide December output.
• Saudi Aramco - Saudi Aramco cut November Arab Light crude prices for Asian buyers to USD 5.00/bbl below the regional benchmark, the lowest in six years, Bloomberg reports. The discount widened from USD 2/bbl in October as Gulf producers compete for market share and oil flows through Hormuz recover. European prices rose USD 3/bbl; US prices were unchanged.
• Strait of Hormuz - LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued recovering, with at least three cargoes exiting since late last week, according to ship tracking data. September outbound flows reached their highest level since the Iran conflict began, but remain more than 75% below pre-war levels.
• Iraq Crude - Iraq’s state tanker company arranged a VLCC to carry 2mln barrels beyond the Strait of Hormuz. The move shifts responsibility for transporting crude from buyers to Iraq, potentially helping reach refiners reluctant to enter the Gulf and reduce discounts, Bloomberg writes.
• BP (BP) - CEO said the company has adjusted its refineries to shift production from jet fuel toward diesel; BP has no intention of reducing its Middle East presence and is working with Iraq’s government on options for new export routes, including a northern route, while questioning whether direct investment in alternative routes is in shareholders’ best interests. Trading is becoming more competitive as more Middle Eastern players emerge, while BP is working to balance its LNG position between equity and traded volumes; the CEO also notes LNG contracts have become more flexible in terms of length, price indexation and design.
• ExxonMobil (XOM), Suncor Energy (SU) - ExxonMobil and Suncor Energy are asking the US Supreme Court to dismiss Boulder, Colorado’s climate-damages lawsuit, Reuters reports. Boulder alleges the companies contributed to climate change and misled the public about fossil-fuel risks. A ruling for the companies could affect nearly 60 similar state and local cases. The court’s decision is expected by the end of June.
• Eni (E), Repsol (REPYY) - Eni and Repsol are considering selling portions of their 50% stakes in Venezuela’s Perla gas field to outside investors to fund development, Bloomberg reports citing sources. The companies aim to more than double production and begin LNG exports by end-2031 from a floating terminal.
• Suncor Energy (SU) - Suncor agreed to sell stakes in Terra Nova, White Rose and West White Rose to Ithaca Energy for CAD 860mln upfront plus up to CAD 250mln contingent on oil prices; Ithaca will also assume investment commitments and future liabilities. Suncor also increased monthly share repurchases to CAD 750mln (from CAD 500mln), starting October 2026.
• Cenovus Energy (CVE) - To acquire Athabasca Oil (ATH CT) for an implied enterprise value of USD 5.7bln, with Athabasca shareholders to receive USD 12/share in cash and/or Cenovus shares; consideration will comprise 65%-75% cash and 25%-35% Cenovus shares, subject to pro-ration based on a maximum USD 4.3bln cash and 44.4mln Cenovus shares. The deal was unanimously approved by both boards, with Athabasca directors and executives representing ~2.2% of shares agreeing to vote in favour; the transaction is expected to close in Dec. 2026, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals, with no financing contingency.

• Akzo Nobel (AKZOY) - AkzoNobel agreed to sell its south-east Asian decorative paints business to Nippon Paint for USD 1.35bln. The deal is expected to close in mid-2027 and is separate from AkzoNobel’s planned merger with Axalta.
• Air Liquide (AIQUY) - Air Liquide targets a sales CAGR of 5%, recurring net EPS growth of 10%, recurring ROCE above 11% and margin improvement of 400-600bps under its 2030 strategic plan. It also plans to launch a EUR 4bln share buyback programme over 2027-2028.

• RXO (RXO) - C.H. Robinson (CHRW) to acquire RXO in a stock-and-cash deal valued at USD 5.8bln, with RXO shareholders receiving USD 17.25/share in cash and 0.0856 CHRW shares, implying total consideration of USD 30.25/share. CHRW expects ~USD 300mln in net run-rate cost synergies within two years, adjusted EPS accretion within nine months and mid-teens accretion in 2028; deal expected to close in H1 2027, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.
• Dassault Aviation (DUAVF) - India reportedly aims to sign a deal with France for 114 Dassault Aviation Rafale fighters within five months; the agreement is estimated at USD 30-35bln, with price negotiations in their final stages.

• Vistra (VST) - The Trump administration plans to offer Vistra about USD 4bln in loans to upgrade three nuclear plants in Ohio and Pennsylvania, Bloomberg reports citing sources. The funding would support investments at Perry, Davis-Besse and Beaver Valley as the US seeks more nuclear power for data centres, manufacturing and rising electricity demand.

• Medicare - President Trump said his administration will send USD 90 payments to more than 20mln Medicare recipients to help cover Part B premiums. The payments will come from the Medicare Improvement Fund, and are expected in early October.
• Bayer (BAYRY) - Bayer plans to invest USD 2.2bln in a new pharmaceutical manufacturing site in New Albany, Ohio. The project is expected to create about 600 permanent jobs and 1,500 construction roles. Bayer aims to double US pharmaceutical sales by 2030, with drug-substance production starting in 2031 and finished drug manufacturing in 2034.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Novo said the US FDA’s review of denecimig for haemophilia A in adults and children, with or without inhibitors, remains ongoing; the FDA has not provided a new timeline for regulatory action on the BLA.
• Genmab (GMAB) - Genmab said Part C of the Phase 1/2 RAINFOL-01 trial showed rinatabart sesutecan achieved a confirmed ORR of 45.9% in 109 patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, including five complete responses. Median duration of response was 12.1 months, with 51% of responders still responding at one year.
• CSL (CSLLY), Alentis Therapeutics - CSL agreed to pay Alentis Therapeutics up to USD 1.6bln to jointly develop and commercialise lixudebart for rare kidney and liver diseases, Bloomberg reports. CSL will pay USD 355mln upfront, with up to USD 1.2bln in milestones, fund further trials, and receive 55% of global profits if approved.
• Alvotech (ALVO) - Said the FDA approved a BLA supplement for AVT02, marketed in the US as Simlandi, allowing drug substance production in a second suite at its Reykjavik facility; the approval further confirms resolution of inspection-related matters at the site.
• Vaxcyte (PCVX) - Said Phase 3 OPUS-1 trial of VAX-31 met all prespecified co-primary immunogenicity endpoints in adults aged 50 and older; VAX-31 was well tolerated with a safety profile similar to PCV20 and PCV21.
• Insmed (INSM) - Reaffirmed FY26 revenue guidance of USD 1.25-1.4bln for brinsupri and USD 450-470mln for Arikayce. Separately, CFO Sara Bonstein will step down Oct. 30, 2026, remaining in the role through Q3 2026 results and the Oct. 29 earnings call; Insmed has begun a search for her successor, and says the transition is not related to any disagreement over accounting practices, financial statements, internal controls or operations.
• GE Healthcare (GEHC) - Expected to announce a USD 945mln cash purchase of Sofie, a manufacturer of radioactive substances used in medical-imaging procedures, reports WSJ

• Estee Lauder (EL) - Upgraded at Barclays to Overweight from Equal Weight with a USD 108 PT (prev. 97). The firm said Estee's reported stronger than expected sales growth in fiscal Q4, with the upside coming from multiple geographies and categories. This could be the beginning of more broad-based growth in fiscal 2027 and beyond.

• Iran Oil Minister - Iranian Oil Minister Paknejad resigned for personal reasons; President Pezeshkian has appointed Hamid Bovard as an interim. The change comes as a US naval blockade has halted Iranian oil exports, forced production cuts and intensified scrutiny of intermediaries used to circumvent sanctions.
• US-China, Taiwan - US authorities arrested Wanying Zhang on suspicion of acting as an unregistered Chinese agent and surveilling Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s son and family. Prosecutors allege she filmed the family’s home and vehicles and sent information to Chinese handlers.
• Saudi-Yemen - Yemen’s internationally recognised government launched a full-scale campaign to retake Houthi-held territory after weeks of escalating fighting. Saudi-backed forces are targeting areas including Yemen’s western coast and Bab el-Mandeb strait, while the Houthis have increased drone and missile attacks on Saudi cities and energy sites.
• Ukraine-Russia - Russia said it will intensify strikes on Ukrainian military, industrial and related infrastructure after President Zelensky vowed continued attacks on Russian oil refineries. Russia also struck Kyiv’s Pivnichnyi Bridge and other infrastructure. Separately, Germany announced EUR 1.35bln of military and energy aid for Ukraine during Chancellor Merz’s visit to Kyiv; the package includes long-range weapons, combat drones, satellite technology and EUR 350mln for energy infrastructure repairs. Germany and Ukraine also agreed defence orders and joint projects worth more than EUR 8.5bln.

• US Diesel Exports - President Trump said the US will not impose a diesel export ban after G7 nations and partners agreed to release up to 100mln barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks. The coordinated release aims to ease record diesel prices, while G7 members reaffirmed commitments to avoid energy export restrictions between themselves.
• UK-China - The UK is preparing tariffs on Chinese EVs to retain access to EU Made in Europe local-content rules, The Times reports. Chinese brands including BYD, SAIC Motor’s MG and Chery’s Jaecoo took 23% of UK new-car sales in September, and officials are concerned about possible Chinese retaliation against Jaguar Land Rover.
• UK-US - UK politicians warned that dependence on US cloud providers creates strategic and economic risks because US law can compel data disclosure or service withdrawal. AWS (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) account for as much as 80% of UK government cloud services. MPs urged stronger sovereign capacity, potentially with France and Germany, as health, defence and tax systems migrate to US platforms.

• US Credit Ratings - Scope Ratings kept the US at AA-, with a stable outlook, but warned that large deficits and rising debt leave the country increasingly exposed to shifts in investor sentiment. Scope expects debt-to-GDP to reach 160% within a decade, and said net interest costs will become exceptionally high by 2031.
• US Yields - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said rising Treasury yields reflect global trends rather than US-specific stress, and dismissed concerns about an AI bubble. He said major tech companies including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) and Meta (META) are investing heavily while Anthropic and OpenAI generate strong revenue growth. Elsewhere, he said the Iran-related energy shock should eventually fade.
• GPIF - Japan's GPIF didn't discuss allocation at its September meeting, Bloomberg reports.
• ECB - German Chancellor Merz is set to meet Pablo Hernandez de Cos and Klaas Knot, the frontrunners to succeed ECB President Lagarde, according to Bloomberg; Knot’s meeting is due in the coming days and de Cos’ within weeks, signalling Berlin is no longer considering nominating Bundesbank President Nagel, the report states.
• Brazil Election - Senator Flavio Bolsonaro won Brazil’s first-round presidential vote with 47.03% vs President Lula da Silva’s 45.16%, BBC reports. A run-off will take place on 25th October. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party also led congressional and regional results, with its campaign centring on crime, corruption, the economy and sovereignty, with Bolsonaro favouring closer US ties, and Lula defending stronger state-led social and industrial policies.
• Spain - Spanish PM Sanchez called an early election for 29th November after his government failed to pass emergency housing bills; the measures were intended to support the housing market, but were blocked by right-wing opposition, increasing pressure on the government.