Datafolha projects Brazil will head to a presidential runoff between President Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro

Brazilian presidential contests have repeatedly gone to a second round, and the polling gap between first round and runoff projections matters more than any single survey: first round polling captures the fragmented field, while runoff numbers measure the consolidation of the anti-incumbent or anti-establishment vote, which has historically been where late swings materialise. A Lula-Bolsonaro family runoff is the polarised scenario markets have priced before, and in comparable episodes the transmission channel has been the fiscal risk premium: expectations of spending discipline or looseness under each candidate have driven the BRL, the long end of the local curve, and the debt dynamics narrative, given the sensitivity of the Brazilian budget to rates. Poll projections from Datafolha and its peers have a track record of converging with actual first round results in the closing weeks but diverging materially earlier in the cycle, so the tell is the trend across successive waves rather than any one reading. The follow-ons worth watching are other pollsters' runoff scenarios for confirmation, movements among the centrist and third-way candidates whose transfer votes typically decide the second round, and campaign signals on fiscal anchors, Petrobras policy, and central bank autonomy. As a single projection early in the campaign, this frames the contest rather than settling it.