Deputy Governor of Hormozgan says no casualties or incidents have been reported in Hormozgan so far, Nour News reports

What matters for the crude complex is less the casualty count than the distinction between rhetoric and any physical disruption to tanker traffic: past episodes in which transit continued uninterrupted have seen the initial risk premium in front-month Brent and in freight and war-risk insurance rates fade within sessions, while episodes involving seizures, strikes on vessels, or credible mining threats have held the premium and steepened timespreads. The deputy governor's denial addresses only the provincial picture, not the waterway itself, and sourcing through Nour News reflects the state's interest in projecting control. The established tells are tanker tracking through the strait, any change in insurance quotations, and whether US or allied naval statements corroborate or contradict the account. Absent a follow-on incident, this class of headline has historically marked the de-escalation leg rather than the escalation leg.