Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to hike by 25bps in December, and then also in January and March (prev. December and March)

Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to hike by 25bps in December, and then also in January and March (prev. December and March)

A house call of this kind, adding a meeting to the expected tightening path, is the street catching up to a repricing that typically begins in rates futures before sell-side economists formalise it. The direction of the revision matters more than the forecaster: moving a hike earlier into consecutive meetings signals a view that the committee's reaction function has shifted toward persistence, not merely timing, and revisions of this sort have historically come in clusters across the street rather than in isolation. The distinction worth drawing is between a change in the near-term path, which reprices the front end and money market strip, and a change in terminal rate assumptions, which moves the belly; this call speaks to the former. Consecutive-meeting tightening language, when it gains traction, has tended to flatten the front of the curve and firm the dollar against funding and low-yielding peers. The tells are whether peer houses follow with similar revisions and how the call sits against what front-end pricing already implies, since a forecast that merely validates market pricing carries little incremental signal. As a research view rather than official guidance, it is directional colour on where street consensus is migrating.